Posted on 10/12/2022 8:40:29 AM PDT by Kazan
Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.
Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers: (video at link)
Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .
However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.
The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/
Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.
Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.
What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:
The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .
But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.
https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/
Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.
I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.
Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.
When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.
“‘The Return of Industrial Warfare’”
It’s funny how delusional the Russians are. They are no long a great power. Their industrial base is smaller than that of Canada.
The west could dedicate 1% of its industrial output to the war and match everything that Russia could build.
“Joe, pick up the phone!!!!”
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XlRMpWyALbI
You really think Poland, etc., don’t have the economic and military ability to keep the light on in Ukraine? Russia is fighting a losing war and its supporters must understand this. The sooner the better.
Still waiting on your Ukrainian army coup, btw. How is that Donbas “cauldron” developing? Enquiring minds would like to know.
You are living in a fantasy world of glorious Ukraine achieving battlefield victory.
Rational people are not buying that gaslighting.
Again, you are clueless.
Europe, Germany, the UK and the US is steadily de-industrializing themselves, the evidence is the multitude of articles I posted up - which you failed to read or comprehend what you read.
Whereas, on the other hand, both our alleged adversaries are steadily increasing and building upon their industrial base.
Anybody can selectively post a list of articles that fit their preferred narrative. But none of those articles change the fact that Russia was first fought to a standstill, and is now actually retreating from a little 2nd string country that nobody on the planet considered to be a threat to anyone before Russia forced this conflict on them.
And anybody can selectively spout the BS you and others do....
Before this is over Ukraine is going to have one of the best air defense systems in the world. And they can thank Putin for it. Another own goal by the impotent KGB corporal.
WWIII ended because the US had nuclear weapons and the willingness to use them.
Some of our Ukie FReepers think they world should be destroyed unless Ukraine gets everything it wants. Freakin’ ghoulish crooks.
Post 15. “I would rather the world end in nuclear war than yield to Little Pukin.”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4099982/posts?page=15#15
Zelensky is begging for more weapons with which to kill Russians. Putin is begging for the war to stop.
Well...... this should be a congenial thread with great discussion.
Full disclosure - I don’t think there are any winners in this war and it did not need to happen. There are many reasons we are discussing this tragedy today with plenty of blame in Russia, Ukraine, Brussels, and DC.
With that being said - there is some logic to the analysis presented here. On paper, Russia should still win assuming that their soldiers will fight for the oligarch of oligarchs.
That is the biggest “if” to me and the one that is hardest to predict. Despite what some here argue, the Russian soldier does not appear to be very committed to this war. The Russian public does not seem to be very committed. Support for Putin is not that great in the Russian Federation because he is correctly viewed as extremely corrupt by a populace that is dirt poor as he and his inner circle have become among the wealthiest people in the world.
The Russian people will tolerate some corruption from their leaders because it is accepted and normal, but Putin might have gone a little overboard given what members of his inner circle who now live abroad have claimed.
This dynamic within a nation is very dangerous for “leaders” and if you add in an unpopular war with casualties and misery it can act as a catalyst for a revolution disguised as a populist uprising that will “reclaim the wealth of a nation on behalf of its people”. Where have we seen that before in that part of the world?
However, even if Russia “wins” and they occupy the entire Ukraine they will still lose because they will have conquered a nation that despises them, suffer ongoing guerilla warfare and terrorism, face a larger and more motivated NATO, and they will still suck (maybe even worse) economically with endless sanctions on the horizon. China will buy their oil at pennies on the dollar because that is what China does and they want a weak Russia as they eye all that undeveloped land to the north..... for which they have a claim.
Putin has not only damaged his military and the image of his military but he has irreparably damaged his reputation and standing. This conflict also presented him with a massive pricetag of political capital and that was already in short supply within Russia. The
One of his stated goals was to stop the encroachment of NATO onto the borders of Russia. That has failed now regardless of what happens in the Ukraine because his actions drove Sweden and Finland into the arms of NATO and those are 1st world economies with 1st world technology (albeit small) that give NATO defensible air bases and a far better strategic foothold to hurt Russia via air power - a major advantage of the West.
Any calculation going back to the 80’s about Sweden and Finland inside the umbrella of NATO understood how devastating it would be for NATO to have airbases there and that was when we thought the Russian Air Force was a “near peer adversary”. They are not even close to a near peer adversary for NATO in the air.
Furthermore, unlike the plains of the Ukraine it will be far more difficult for the Russians to protect their airspace from the north using air defense systems. It opens the up the less exposed parts of Russia to air attack without refueling or exposure to the more condensed and chaotic map of the former Warsaw Pact nations.
The Russian people were embracing the suck before this war. They now embrace more suck. Putin could take some lessons from Saudi Arabia on how to share oil wealth with the serfs. They will embrace even more suck regardless of the outcome.
Putin and his oligarch cronies continue to become more wealthy. Zelensky and his cronies are becoming more wealthy. Davos cheers. NATO promises and the US pays. The media do their thing. The Biden administration fumbles and pledges more money. The UN does the abstain thing.
Sounds a lot like pre-Ukraine war if you are not one of the poor bastards bleeding or sacrificing your son doesn’t it?
WWII
Lulz, I know exactly who is getting killed and getting killed by the hundreds of thousands = unsustainable.
Begging? Hardly.
But again, I know exactly who is begging....
“Joe, pick up the phone!!!!”
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XlRMpWyALbI
“Rational people are not buying that gaslighting”
That’s okay. You don’t have to believe anything. Facts are facts whether you believe them or not.
“As for artillery, you may have noted that Belorussia is also sending Russia its reserve ammo. Which it goes without saying should not be necessary if Russia still had its fabled ammo reserves. “
The Soviet’s vastly overproduced almost all types of Russian hardware. In our 20 years in Afghanistan we were giving our allies millions of rounds a year of AK-47 ammo. Not one of those rounds was manufactured after 1989.
The reserves of artillery shells will still run out at some point, and that has to be a ticking clock that Putin & co are very worried about.
“Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units.”
https://www.wdmma.org/russian-air-force.php
3829 combat aircraft. About 1200 fighters. That’s 1200 fighters for an ENTIRE nation, not counting losses already in Ukraine. They can probably put 25% of those 1200 fighters to fight. So lets assume 300 fighters.
Combat readiness. US levels about 70% combat ready. In india, using same Russian aircraft, combat readiness is 20-30%. So, if the Russians have US readiness, they have 210 fighters available for the conflict, with typical Russian aircraft, that could be as low as 80-90 fighter aircraft.
For a comparison, here is what the US keeps in Storage.
http://gmap.nl/amarg-full-current/
There are more fighter aircraft in the Boneyard than the entire Russian active inventory. There are about 2000+ F/A-18’s, F-15’s, and F-16. Hundreds of A-10’s, helicopters, ect.
The Russians have a combat aircraft problem, the numbers of aircraft that could be ‘released’ from the boneyard and given to Ukraine could overwhelm the entire Russian airforce.
Russians haven’t used their aircraft for hitting ground positions to a great extent: 1) likely because they aren’t massed. 2) It’s a SAM environment. 3) They have limited ground attack capability 4) They don’t have air superiority 5) They can’t spare the aircraft losses.
The propaganda on both sides is stupid. People should be advocating for peace right now. Send Donald Trump, he can’t do any worse that Biden and his band of idiots.
What’s not “BS” is that it is now 230 days since Russia, the country with supposedly the 2nd greatest army in the world, invaded Ukraine, who is not even in the rankings, and they still haven’t managed to win.
You can’t talk your way around that little fact.
I suppose the other thing that matters is that Ukraine has a far healthier personnel/manpower system, with a westernized NCO corps and access to training in NATO countries. All Russia can do is round guys up and ship them to the front like it is 1941.
Neither can you....
“Ukraine war veterans on how Kiev plundered US aid, wasted soldiers, endangered civilians, and lost the war”
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/08/18/ukraine-veterans-us-aid-soldiers-war/
“A Ukrainian’s Letter from the Front
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94RYVNg9bfA
‘Ukrainian General estimates Kiev’s losses at hundreds of thousands since Feb’
https://tass.com/politics/1501881
‘Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
‘In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs’
https://archive.ph/MtHyd#selection-383.0-383.52
“Kharkov Offensive: “You Can Always Regain Territory—You Cannot Regain Human Lives.” - Jacques Baud”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6GFaOQOpEs
“The Limits of Ukraine’s Offensive and the High Price to Pay When it Ends”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pONjlORXdFQ
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