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Fetterman Being Outspent By Oz As Polls Show Narrowing Race
Daily Caller ^ | September 21, 2022 12:31 PM ET | ARJUN SINGH

Posted on 09/27/2022 8:09:32 AM PDT by conservative98

Allies of Republican Senate candidate Dr Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania have dramatically increased their funding for his candidacy in the state, with new polls released Tuesday suggesting that their contributions are impacting the race.

Fetterman currently leads Oz by under 2%, gaining 47.7% of the vote to Oz’s 45.9%, per a September poll by the Trafalgar Group – within the margin of error of 2.9%. In July, the same poll showed Fetterman leading Oz by 5%, outside the margin of error.

The new polling data follows reports of concern within Fetterman’s campaign about being outspent by Oz’s team. In a memo to top donors on Sept. 13, Fetterman’s campaign manager Brendan McPhillips expressed alarm over the scale of spending by Oz’s camp, per extracts of the memo leaked by Politico.

“In the last three weeks alone, Republicans have spent nearly $12 million dollars — significantly outspending us and out-communicating on the airwaves. We cannot allow this to continue unabated,” wrote McPhillips in the memo he termed “a wake-up call.”

Data on advertising patterns shows that Oz’s spending on television and social media ads began to outstrip Fetterman in August, with the gap increasing in September. In October, the last month before the election in November, pro-Oz spending in the state is set to outstrip pro-Fetterman spots by over $6 million, per data sold by AdImpact, an advertising analytics firm.

The fundraising momentum for Oz comes as Fetterman faces growing and bipartisan criticism for refusing to participate in debates with Oz. Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in May and spent several months recovering before speaking at events, has said that he requires more time to recover,

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2022election; defundthepolice; droz; election2022; fetterman; paping; pennsylvania; polls; realpoll; texasfreeper2009; trafalgar
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To: TexasFreeper2009
I look at averages of all polls like you find at Real Clear politics.

For Christ sake, educate yourself. You cannot get any coherent and reliable statistics from an average of polls with different samplings, different questions, some registered voters, other likely voters, different numbers of Democrats and Republicans polled, and polling methodologies. It’s like averaging apples and unicorn to find out how many drag queens should be employed by schools. The RCP average is only for statistical illiterates. Don’t be so ignorant.

21 posted on 09/27/2022 8:41:48 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA ( Scratch a leftist and you'll find a fascist )
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To: conservative98

It is sad that with all the free info available on candidates today that the amount of money spent on campaigns still generally determines the results.


22 posted on 09/27/2022 8:44:38 AM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear (This is not a tagline.)
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To: Luke21
Damn. Every race is a two point lead. Next week it will be a two point lead...Narrowing to a two point lead.

That will be the lead sentence in the next half dozen spam texts demanding money for the RNC and every candidate across the Country.

23 posted on 09/27/2022 8:45:45 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Ultra MAGA in Biden's Post Constitutional United Socialist States of Amerika!)
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To: ConservativeInPA

You can choose to bury your head in the sand and cherry-pick only the polls you like, but I like to see reality for what it is, even if I don’t like it.

I always laugh when I visit sites like Democratic Underground because they don’t even allow you to post a poll that doesn’t show a democrat winning. It’s laughable.

I want the Republicans to win every bit as much as you, but I am not going to ignore the evidence that we are struggling in some states/races.


24 posted on 09/27/2022 8:47:21 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: conservative98

The cheating in Philadelphia will be extreme. Same for Atlanta for the Georgia race. I don’t like the odds on either of those


25 posted on 09/27/2022 8:56:05 AM PDT by cdcdawg (Hoes mad! LOL! )
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To: TexasFreeper2009
My point is you are statistically illiterate. Just because something is on the internet and repeated endlessly my the mainstream media doesn’t make it correct.

I am not burying my head in the sand. I think critically. You don’t. Period. Learn some eff’n statistics instead of being brain dead.

26 posted on 09/27/2022 8:57:23 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA ( Scratch a leftist and you'll find a fascist )
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To: LibertarianLiz

Teratoma-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teratoma


27 posted on 09/27/2022 9:00:44 AM PDT by matthew fuller (Murrill McLean Award, for cowardice by a Policeman, shooting of 12 lb. Mini-Dachshund. Danville, VA)
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To: ConservativeInPA

More grist for the mill.

The Trafalgar group is the most accurate polling firm based on previous elections and never an outlier all of your other polls are outliers in the real world.

STEVE SYBESMA SAYS:
September 25, 2022 at 5:59 pm
That has proven itself true over time. Trafalgar is the best at what they do which is not creating psychologically-engineered suppression polls, but polls that most closely reflect public sentiment. Their polls are the only worthwhile ones because they fulfill the honest intent of a poll.

From: Trafalgar Poll: Republicans Gain Ground

https://www.politicspa.com/trafalgar-poll-republicans-gain-ground/112408/


28 posted on 09/27/2022 9:07:39 AM PDT by conservative98
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To: Luke21

Fetterman will have to go to mommy and daddy for more money.


29 posted on 09/27/2022 9:22:48 AM PDT by Daveinyork
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To: ConservativeInPA

I actually took statistic in college.

If you are simply cherry-picking the polls that say what you wish to be true you are setting yourself up to be disappointed.

Are some pollsters better? absolutely.
Are some pollsters absolute garbage? absolutely.

But poll aggregators like Real Clear politics already weed out the garbage polls like (online ones). 538 goes a step further and weights them based on various things, but I prefer to look at RCP averages of all quality polls.

But if there are 20 polls and all of them show us losing and there is one showing us winning, and you choose to ignore the 19, you are making a mistake in my opinion. And the fact is we are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind in the Goverors race in Penn. It’s doesn’t matter if you ignore a few of the worst polls. The race has been polled extensively and we are far behind. And there are just not that many people who will vote for the “D” for governor and then flip and vote “R” for Senate. So as long as we are far behind in the Governors race, Oz does have much of a chance.

And I don’t “want” to say that. It’s just reality.


30 posted on 09/27/2022 9:25:09 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: mrmeyer

his name was Robert Paulsen


31 posted on 09/27/2022 9:28:29 AM PDT by Jeff Vader ( )
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To: TexasFreeper2009

the average of a bunch of bullshit push polls is still bullshit


32 posted on 09/27/2022 9:29:29 AM PDT by Jeff Vader ( )
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I think it’s productive to review both the credible “individual” polls as well as aggregate polls so long as you understand that, in addition to confirming the validity of the poll, you must evaluate and analyze the two types of polls quite differently to have any confidence in the projections.


33 posted on 09/27/2022 9:34:23 AM PDT by glennaro (Live life unbullied and unafraid. Choose to ignore or fight the irrationality that surrounds you.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Garbage in, average out. It is basically your average-level garbage.


34 posted on 09/27/2022 9:55:54 AM PDT by Lisbon1940 (I don’t see why they would)
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To: mrmeyer

He’s got bitch tits like Bob from Fight club.

~~~

‘His name is Robert Paulsen’

...and Fetterman will never be as cool as Meatloaf’s small toe


35 posted on 09/27/2022 10:14:04 AM PDT by z3n (Kakistocracy)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I didn’t say anything about any particular poll. But your statistical ignorance is apparent.


36 posted on 09/27/2022 11:39:25 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA ( Scratch a leftist and you'll find a fascist )
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To: ConservativeInPA

ok, call me names and refuse to believe what I say.

But when we lose races that “you” thought we would win, don’t blame bad polling for leading you to think we might win.

There hasn’t been any polls that show Mastriano ahead, and on average he is 9 points behind.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/pa/pennsylvania_governor_mastriano_vs_shapiro-7696.html

And there hasn’t been any polls that show Oz ahead, and on average he is 4.5 points behind.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

It gives me no pleasure to point this out, I WANT Oz to win! And it does no good to attack someone on your side. I am just pointing out the facts to you. Sure you can point at certain polls and question them, but you are pointing at all the polls (even ones paid for by out side).


37 posted on 09/27/2022 1:00:45 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Here’s the thing about polls.

Do you think your average Republican would even answer a poll?


38 posted on 09/27/2022 1:58:40 PM PDT by jdsteel (PA voters: it’s Oz or Fetterman. Deal with it and vote accordingly.)
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To: tbewin

Oz let Fetterman get a 2 month head start and let Fetterman define Oz. Close races can be won or lost in the early summer. Oz should never have given Fetterman that time of free reign. If he loses that may be what made the difference.


39 posted on 09/27/2022 3:41:17 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat

I’d agree. The vegetable tray flap didn’t help him at all! He’s got a shot though, we can do this!


40 posted on 09/27/2022 3:44:01 PM PDT by tbewin ( )
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