I actually took statistic in college.
If you are simply cherry-picking the polls that say what you wish to be true you are setting yourself up to be disappointed.
Are some pollsters better? absolutely.
Are some pollsters absolute garbage? absolutely.
But poll aggregators like Real Clear politics already weed out the garbage polls like (online ones). 538 goes a step further and weights them based on various things, but I prefer to look at RCP averages of all quality polls.
But if there are 20 polls and all of them show us losing and there is one showing us winning, and you choose to ignore the 19, you are making a mistake in my opinion. And the fact is we are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind in the Goverors race in Penn. It’s doesn’t matter if you ignore a few of the worst polls. The race has been polled extensively and we are far behind. And there are just not that many people who will vote for the “D” for governor and then flip and vote “R” for Senate. So as long as we are far behind in the Governors race, Oz does have much of a chance.
And I don’t “want” to say that. It’s just reality.
I think it’s productive to review both the credible “individual” polls as well as aggregate polls so long as you understand that, in addition to confirming the validity of the poll, you must evaluate and analyze the two types of polls quite differently to have any confidence in the projections.
I didn’t say anything about any particular poll. But your statistical ignorance is apparent.