Posted on 09/26/2022 9:01:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rush Limbaugh predicted this before he died. His exit from NYC was caused by their anal-retentive tax harassment. I believe DJT could testify to this. IMO
(Face High)
Anxiety?
What the workers will never mention is the crime rate
That's not a sign of an upswing, it's a consequence of failure. Residential rents climbed because of the thousands and thousands of units landlords are keeping off the market after getting burned by the city government via the eviction moratorium during the Scamdemic.
Landlords began holding units off the market even prior to the moratorium due to changes in the law in New York City and aren't going to return them since they have no guarantees the city government won't screw them over again.
Think how many illegal aliens could’ve moved into these spaces. They do have bathrooms and kitchens.
Homeless and drug addicts would love to be out of the weather.
But even after Below Average Joe declared the pandemic over vacancies still go up, disproportionately in the most Liberal and crime ridden cities.
This may explain why this office space is not being turned into residential space.
With residential property being “sky high”, I would think there would be an opportunity to convert the offices into apartments or condos. Looks like the developers aren’t stupid.
…And yet rush hour traffic is the absolute worst I’ve seen in forty years. It’s so bad that I’ve got to tell my dealers that trips to Staten Island are out. Took four hours to get there the other morning.
So who is on the road?
A few things:
1) they are never going to get anywhere near all the toothpaste back in the tube. A lot of office workers are never going back. Of the ones that do go back, the most they will get from them is hybrid (ie 1-2 days a week) instead of 5 days a week in the office.
2) Commercial real estate is in serious trouble. Vacancies are high. Values are declining. What do you think the future looks like? Companies will look to downsize their offices. Pre-existing commercial real estate rental contracts are one of the only things keeping onsite work rates as high as they are now. A lot of those contracts will not be renewed.
3) Remote work for the very first time in 150 years incentivizes moving out of big cities and into small towns and rural settings.
4) Big expensive cities like NYC, San Francisco, Chicago, LA, are going to feel the pain first and most acutely. Why endure the pollution, traffic, crime, high prices for everything, etc if you don’t have to? If you are a single person making $125K per year in NYC you are definitely not rich. Your lifestyle is middle class. How does $125K a year sound for a single person in say - Charleston, West Virginia? What do you think happens to your standard of living as soon as you get the hell out of NYC?
5) Do I even need to point out that those cities are all deeply blue and that as White collar jobs flow out of them, that weakens the Democrat party machines there - OR - that as people move away from bigger cities with public this and government that and are forced to become more self sufficient, that will change their voting behavior?
I haven’t worked in an office since the start of Covid. I’m a consultant so I’ve been through the hiring cycle multiple times in the last 3 years. Its been a little bit more difficult to get jobs that are 100% remote in the last 6 months or so but I’m still able to do it......which means I have no reason to ever return to the office. No unpaid stressful and expensive commutes. No being under the thumb of ueber Leftist HR departments. More freedom.
They will have to convert the excess office space to residential space eventually. There’s nothing else to do with it. Those laws and zoning restrictions they mentioned? They’ll get changes in the law or waivers. City governments will want some kind of revenue from that space rather than nothing and they’ll be desperate to retain people as the population bleed continues from all the now remote former office workers leaving the cities entirely.
If what you are saying is true, then in would expect to see a flood of conversions from rentals to condos or co-ops in NYC. That would be the most effective way to deal with fears over idiotic government regulation of the rental market.
Rush hour traffic is terrible in NYC because a lot of people forced back into the office don’t want to ride on public transit. Take one bus load of commuters out of the system and they are replace by 50+ cars. One NJ Transit or Metro North train can have a thousand riders.
Don’t forget that some employers might be concerned that the city/state that forced them to have people work remotely might be afraid of the city/state flexing its muscle again - and the employers themselves might be very motivated to leave these authoritarian dumps.
Will Built to Suit?
Rush hour traffic is bad because people who previously took mass transit are driving. It started during the Scamdemic with empty streets and unsafe mass transit. Their driving, even tolerating heavy traffic, shows that the numbers of commuters are far lower than 2019.
They're not coming back. They sold their houses at peak price and moved to follow their parents who retired and watch the kids along with siblings who made the same decision to relocate.
6. Cities are obsolete
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