Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hurricane Ian
NHC/NOAA ^ | 23 September 2022 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.


Mash image to enlarge

Public Advisories

NHC Discussion

Buoy Data

Tropical Tidbits


Hebert's Boxes


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricaneian; ian; nautinurse; officialianthread; tropical; tropicalstorm; uhoh; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 421-440441-460461-480 ... 2,521-2,534 next last
To: NautiNurse

Preparing…..
Hoping for some westward movement.


441 posted on 09/25/2022 9:55:40 PM PDT by Road Warrior ‘04 (BOYCOTT The NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR & Faux Snooze! Molon Labe! Oathkeeper! )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 429 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Thanks for the latest updates, FRiend. I'm not happy hearing that Ian is now tracking more eastward toward Tampa/St. Pete.

Hoping and praying that Ian goes back to the west somehow...

442 posted on 09/25/2022 10:15:28 PM PDT by nutmeg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 433 | View Replies]

To: Blueflag

I had a tennis buddy who lost power for a week due to Opal. North Atlanta suburb.


443 posted on 09/25/2022 10:41:44 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: numberonepal

Here in Georgia, GDOT has had a program going for a few years now where they’ve been clear cutting Interstate right of ways so they don’t have as many tree clearing problems in a big storm. I forget which hurricane caused them to do it, but I am all for it!


444 posted on 09/25/2022 10:54:14 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 177 | View Replies]

To: ransomnote

This storm is still a work in progress one thing that is not mentioned too much is king tides,I dont know if they are still in play or not.
Thanks for the concern RN no one is more informed than NN she will do the right thing for sure.
We get lots of storms down here,unless this one moves more to the east we are not too bad off.


445 posted on 09/26/2022 12:50:04 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 430 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

lots of good stuff here:
966
WTNT44 KNHC 260300
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

The storm has become better organized-looking on satellite imagery,
with strengthening central convection and developing banding
features. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow also appears to be
increasing over the system. Flight-level winds, Doppler radar
velocities, and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Ian’s intensity is now near 55 kt.

Ian has turned toward the northwest and the initial motion estimate
is now 315/11 kt. During the next 48 hours, the tropical cyclone
is expected to turn toward the north as it moves along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area. Later in the forecast
period, a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United
States is likely to induce a slightly east of northward motion.
However, around 4 days, the steering currents are forecast to
weaken as the trough moves to the east of Ian’s longitude. Some
of the guidance model tracks such as that from the GFS have, again,
shifted to the east, mainly after 48 hours. The official track
forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one
and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. It
should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast
at longer time ranges.

Observations from the aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone
is developing an inner core, so significant intensification is
likely to occur during the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index indicate a fairly high chance for rapid
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this likelihood, calling for Ian to become a
major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is
near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of
Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.3N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 83.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.7N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 26.2N 83.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 27.6N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


446 posted on 09/26/2022 1:03:06 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 433 | View Replies]

To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Hurricane Ian...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the west coast of Florida
from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the west
coast of Florida to the Anclote River.

500 AM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 60 MI SW of Grand Cayman
About 315 MI SE of the Western Tip of Cuba
Max Sustained Winds...75 MPH
Moving...NW at 14 MPH
Minimum Pressure...983 MB

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles
from the center.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the storm center.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

447 posted on 09/26/2022 2:12:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rodguy911

Morning...busy day ahead...


448 posted on 09/26/2022 2:14:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 446 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

FYI, the southbound cold front passed our area in N. Louisiana about dark yesterday, and is located now around the central part of the state. Should reach the coast this afternoon.


449 posted on 09/26/2022 2:30:36 AM PDT by abb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 448 | View Replies]

To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

I had an umbrella almost driven through my kitchen window by wind. After that, I definitely took it down for storms.


450 posted on 09/26/2022 2:49:15 AM PDT by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 438 | View Replies]

To: ransomnote

Praying for all in the path of this storm

Watching it closely here on the east coast of Florida


451 posted on 09/26/2022 3:08:08 AM PDT by Guenevere (“If the foundations are destroyed, what can the righteous do?”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 450 | View Replies]

To: Guenevere

I join you in prayer.
Prayers up!


452 posted on 09/26/2022 3:20:06 AM PDT by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 451 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

For sure, is it me or is that a small eye?


453 posted on 09/26/2022 3:27:46 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 448 | View Replies]

To: ransomnote

I hope you are not in the path of Ian?


454 posted on 09/26/2022 3:29:17 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE!! ITS ALL A CONSPIRACY: UNTIL ITS NOT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 452 | View Replies]

To: FreedomPoster

We were 3 days with no grid power and then 3 days with off and on power. That episode taught us several things:

Generators use a lot more fuel than we knew.
Even quiet, well-muffled generators annoy you acoustic wise
We would be better off with solar power.

Took me 2 years and a lot of learning, but we put solar on the house last fall and are glad we did.


455 posted on 09/26/2022 3:35:35 AM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur: ad ferre non, velit esse sine defensione)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 443 | View Replies]

To: Guenevere

Current track is almost a direct hit on Cedar Key. My wife and I were there on vacation back in June. Lovely old resort town. Hope it doesn’t get hit too badly.


456 posted on 09/26/2022 3:40:53 AM PDT by IndyTiger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 451 | View Replies]

To: rodguy911

The last dropsonde I ssaw indicated C30. Isn’t that somewhat average?


457 posted on 09/26/2022 3:49:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 453 | View Replies]

To: Blueflag
Even quiet, well-muffled generators annoy you acoustic wise

Generators of old were very loud. Even so, after a particularly nasty storm, the sound of chainsaws is like a sweet symphony.

458 posted on 09/26/2022 3:52:58 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 455 | View Replies]

To: Blueflag

I heard recently that insurance companies are refusing to cover structures with solar panels on the roof. Did you find this an issue?


459 posted on 09/26/2022 4:06:02 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Ron DeSantis is Top Gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 455 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Correction on the cold front. Is just now reaching the coast of Louisiana.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1430959785


460 posted on 09/26/2022 4:24:18 AM PDT by abb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 459 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 421-440441-460461-480 ... 2,521-2,534 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson