Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
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Hebert's Boxes
Preparing…..
Hoping for some westward movement.
Hoping and praying that Ian goes back to the west somehow...
I had a tennis buddy who lost power for a week due to Opal. North Atlanta suburb.
Here in Georgia, GDOT has had a program going for a few years now where they’ve been clear cutting Interstate right of ways so they don’t have as many tree clearing problems in a big storm. I forget which hurricane caused them to do it, but I am all for it!
This storm is still a work in progress one thing that is not mentioned too much is king tides,I dont know if they are still in play or not.
Thanks for the concern RN no one is more informed than NN she will do the right thing for sure.
We get lots of storms down here,unless this one moves more to the east we are not too bad off.
lots of good stuff here:
966
WTNT44 KNHC 260300
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
The storm has become better organized-looking on satellite imagery,
with strengthening central convection and developing banding
features. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow also appears to be
increasing over the system. Flight-level winds, Doppler radar
velocities, and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Ian’s intensity is now near 55 kt.
Ian has turned toward the northwest and the initial motion estimate
is now 315/11 kt. During the next 48 hours, the tropical cyclone
is expected to turn toward the north as it moves along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area. Later in the forecast
period, a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United
States is likely to induce a slightly east of northward motion.
However, around 4 days, the steering currents are forecast to
weaken as the trough moves to the east of Ian’s longitude. Some
of the guidance model tracks such as that from the GFS have, again,
shifted to the east, mainly after 48 hours. The official track
forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one
and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. It
should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast
at longer time ranges.
Observations from the aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone
is developing an inner core, so significant intensification is
likely to occur during the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index indicate a fairly high chance for rapid
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this likelihood, calling for Ian to become a
major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is
near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of
Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west
coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this
week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials
and closely monitor updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 17.3N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.7N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 83.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.7N 84.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 26.2N 83.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 27.6N 83.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Morning...busy day ahead...
FYI, the southbound cold front passed our area in N. Louisiana about dark yesterday, and is located now around the central part of the state. Should reach the coast this afternoon.
I had an umbrella almost driven through my kitchen window by wind. After that, I definitely took it down for storms.
Praying for all in the path of this storm
Watching it closely here on the east coast of Florida
I join you in prayer.
Prayers up!
For sure, is it me or is that a small eye?
I hope you are not in the path of Ian?
We were 3 days with no grid power and then 3 days with off and on power. That episode taught us several things:
Generators use a lot more fuel than we knew.
Even quiet, well-muffled generators annoy you acoustic wise
We would be better off with solar power.
Took me 2 years and a lot of learning, but we put solar on the house last fall and are glad we did.
Current track is almost a direct hit on Cedar Key. My wife and I were there on vacation back in June. Lovely old resort town. Hope it doesn’t get hit too badly.
The last dropsonde I ssaw indicated C30. Isn’t that somewhat average?
Generators of old were very loud. Even so, after a particularly nasty storm, the sound of chainsaws is like a sweet symphony.
I heard recently that insurance companies are refusing to cover structures with solar panels on the roof. Did you find this an issue?
Correction on the cold front. Is just now reaching the coast of Louisiana.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1430959785
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