Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Thanks for posting all these pictures. It’s heartbreaking to see them, but better to know the terrible truth than to wonder. Ft. Myers is devastated :( After seeing some of the damage to Sanibel, I can’t help wondering what happened to North Captiva. All of this so tragic, and not over yet. I always had a soft spot for St. Augustine and hope it fares better than expected.
Keeping prayers up for all those stranded/trapped/in need in the wake of Ian and all in its current and future path. This thing is a true monster storm.
The Sanibel causeway did not collapse. At least one precast slab got smacked up off the piers by a rising wave and dislodged. The same kinda barge crane that set it in place during original construction can put it ... or a new one... back in place. Weeks, not months. It could be done in days if there weren’t other damages over a large area.
Single source (so far) report has at least 3 dislodged slabs. Till I see damaged piers, or high bridge spans out, that causeway is a short term temporary problem. I’m not alone.
Those road crews on the causeway approach aren’t out there doing busy work. They mean to open that artery.
The pavement ‘floated up’ and got pushed sideways. Any kind of real current would have cut huge channels in the gravel roadbed, requiring material and heavy equipment and time... but you don’t see that here. This is a chuckhole. A big one, but simply needs resurfaced.
The real problems, if there are real problems, are out on Sanibel. Periwinkle Way and Casa Ybel intersection saw 3.5 feet of live surge before the cam cut off.
I had a source claiming Periwinkle Way averages 20 meters of elevation above mean sea level. My gut says feet, not meters. Either way, it is the backbone of the island, the highest point.
3.5 feet of lightly active surge may not take frame structures. It will not take steel reinforced concrete.
23.5 feet of violently active surge can take a lot more.
Barrier islands frequently change shape, size, and configuration. Breaches, passes, islands, call them what you will, it’s what shifting sand does along the coast.
Point is, we don’t know till we get eyes on info. The Sanibel/Captiva/N.Captiva... sandpile... is there for a reason. Mother Nature wants it there. The eddies and swirls and currents that put it there haven’t changed. Helicopters will be up today. Maybe not out that far, but tomorrow or Friday, for sure.
We’ll know.
For now we wait. Happy or not. I choose happy.
For now.
Check out:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4095453/posts?page=2161#2161
Also #2152. This will not be fixed so easily :(
I was intrigued last year on my visit to Sanibel how much mangrove growth there was there. Were it not for that plant a lot of the peninsula would have washed away long ago.
Ok.
That’s gonna take a minute to fix. Maybe a couple.
Slab on grade trumped by slabs on piers driven deep.
Put another way... it’s easier to fix that than piers in open water.
Birds, lizards, and the folks on N.Captiva might not agree.
:-)
I wonder how South seas and tween waters resorts fared.
Hurricane Ian Update #4, 9/29/22 at 12 PM
In the wake of Hurricane Ian’s impact, South Seas Island is currently closed. Our focus is ensuring the safety and welfare of our associates – our people are our primary concern. With no access to the island, we are unable to assess the condition of the resort and anticipate it will be several days before we have more information.
We are aware of the collapse of a portion of the Sanibel Causeway, and we expect the damage to the resort to be significant.
Your patience is appreciated as we wait for the opportunity to access the island and begin the assessment process. We anticipate that it will take some time before we can welcome guests back to South Seas, and we will be in touch with guests with reservations in the days ahead.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for updated information about the storm.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ian
The structural investigation, construction documents and bid/procurement phase will take four months even if the actual work can be done in five. Big civil outfits already are putting bid teams together - involved in same post Katrina.
Similar to Mexico Beach after Michael :(
So sad.
🙁
9/29/22
“Ian Is Forecast to Hit South Carolina After Regaining Hurricane Strength”
Thanks for all the photos.
They were saying on FOX that Sanibel is inaccessible by motor vehicles.
Now I see why!
DeSantis mentioned sending in helicopters.
I hope no one stayed there during the storm.
I’m sure a lot did. IIRC, it was widely predicted to hit Tampa until a much later change.
That is good info, but memory seems to indicate the Ponchartrain and Bay St. Louis causeways were open WAY sooner than that after Katrina.
Boats work pretty good too.
A video showed 3.5 feet of live surge crossing the Periwinkle/Casa Ybel intersection...after 2 cars passed heading towards the cam, and one pickup truck heading away.
Thanks for sharing all the photos. Saw a video on fb, time’s square is gone, as is Junkanoo, and the pier severely damaged (concrete pylons remain). My stomach turns at the damage from Ian.
The red states apparently are the ones sending help and manpower to Florida at their own expense – Texas, Indiana, Georgia, NC, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tenn. Either search and rescue, state national guardsmen and in the case of Duke Energy and Kentucky Utilities, a bunch of linemen and other utility workers. No, no help from Martha’s Vinyard or Massachusetts, for that matter
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