Posted on 09/20/2022 8:04:23 PM PDT by Dr. Franklin
Meanwhile, a much simpler model may be able to answer some of the questions about the Russia-Ukraine war, such as why the Russians were so ineffective and what will likely happen as the war continues. This simple combat model is based on the Lanchester equations, which were developed in 1916. The Lanchester equations consist of a series of differential equations that approximate the rate of combat losses for two opposing armies. Although somewhat basic, these equations have been successfully used over the last century to model attrition warfare, similar to the conflict in Ukraine.
...
When the differential equations are solved, they indicate that the Russians had a strong advantage at the start of the war. Indeed, they destroyed a number of Ukrainian targets during the first few weeks. However, their effectiveness continually diminished as the war progressed at a rate much faster than the Ukrainian forces...
The models further indicate that at approximately six months, the war would change as the Russians would lose their numerical advantage. This coincides well with the shift in the war with the Ukrainians seizing back large amounts of territory. It would also explain the Kremlin’s strong push to recruit 50,000 new soldiers to replace their combat losses.
These models also provide insight into the likely outcome of the Russian plan to field new “volunteer” battalions. Since these troops will be even less trained than the Russians forces currently in Ukraine, they will likely continue the use of unaimed fires. As a result, the surge in soldiers will see a similar trend where they achieve initial successes but long-term failures. Indeed, the models would indicate that the Russians’ best course of action would be to fully withdraw from Ukraine, extensive training, and a reinvasion a later date.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
“Russia has only been able to use volunteers and paid mercenaries under the terms of SMO. In a few weeks that could change.”
RuZZia has used up its best troops and equipment.
It is all downhill from here.
You have been indoctrinated by obscure bloggers with an agenda.
And in the future, do not address me again. I don’t interact with Putin’s little helpers.
True that, though Putin’s little helpers will never resign themselves to that undeniable fact.
Watch and see what Russia will and can do in a real war.
You must have missed Grozny.
Oh, no! The Ukrainians will be shaking in their boots! /sarcasm
Seriously: Belarus will not field even only a single brigade in Ukraine!
Lukashenko may be an evil and corrupt despot, but he's not Putin-level crazy.
Regards,
Concerning the Lanchester Equations which are not full-proof by any measure despite their continued use. Example:
“...this research adds to the evidence that Lanchester equations may be too blunt of an instrument
for modeling the attrition of highly aggregated forces. Indeed, it is asking a lot to address most
of the complexities of combat attrition in a model with only a handful (four or five in this paper)
of parameters. The failure to find any good-fitting Lanchester model suggests that it may be
beneficial to look for new approaches to model highly aggregated attrition.”
‘Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes’
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/36736335.pdf
Well it turned out there was no need for a war declaration.
Are they still operating under SMO?
Because Ukraine is getting blasted tonight and the gloves are off on not bombing civilian infrastructure.
‘The constant fallacy: A persistent logical flaw in applications of Lanchester’s equations’
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0377221794903034
“In this study, Joshua M. Epstein makes two separate contributions. He argues that Lanchester’s equations fail to capture the basic dynamics of warfare and that they offer a fundamentally implausible picture of combat.”
‘The Calculus of Conventional War - Dynamic Analysis without Lanchester Theory’
https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-calculus-of-conventional-war/
More can be provided.
“I wish we could have seen the speech this evening….”
****************************************************
With simultaneous English translation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVOWpSuFtIc&t=844s
“Watch and see what Russia will and can do in a real war.”
I’m watching. Show me.
Russia also conscripted a lot of soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk, through their surrogates, that have also taken lots of casualties. Along with the Wagner mercs, they fielded a larger total force
The Ukrainian forces also had additional forces under arms, like their Territorial Defense Force.
This new Russian mobilization likely means that the war will be longer, bloodier and more costly.
Check again. They get paid 2000 rubles a month. About $33.
Check again yourself.
It means just the opposite. Watch and see. Things changed drastically last night.
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