Basic Attrition Models Provide Insight Into Russian Woes In Russia-Ukraine War

Forbes ^ | September 20, 2022 | Vikram Mittal

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Russia has only been able to use volunteers and paid mercenaries under the terms of SMO. In a few weeks that could change.”

RuZZia has used up its best troops and equipment.

It is all downhill from here.

[ScottinVA]

You have been indoctrinated by obscure bloggers with an agenda.

And in the future, do not address me again. I don’t interact with Putin’s little helpers.

[ScottinVA]

True that, though Putin’s little helpers will never resign themselves to that undeniable fact.

[MarMema]

Watch and see what Russia will and can do in a real war.

You must have missed Grozny.

[Widget Jr]

That was from the beginning of August, a month before the Kherson and Kharkiv counter offensives started. The last three weeks happened. Given those documents, these are three possible explanations:

1. Russia would have already won by August, since 191,000 total KIA and WIA would have overwhelmed the Ukrainian army.
2. The reason Russia has not won is they are less capable than the Ukrainian army.
3. This is another mediocre propaganda piece Russia pumps out all the time.

Since #1 did not happen and the last three weeks did, that leaves #2 and #3. The Russian army is lousy and those docs are fakes.

[alexander_busek]

Belarus is preparing troops [...]

Oh, no! The Ukrainians will be shaking in their boots! /sarcasm

Seriously: Belarus will not field even only a single brigade in Ukraine!

Lukashenko may be an evil and corrupt despot, but he's not Putin-level crazy.

Regards,

[cranked]

Concerning the Lanchester Equations which are not full-proof by any measure despite their continued use. Example:

“...this research adds to the evidence that Lanchester equations may be too blunt of an instrument
for modeling the attrition of highly aggregated forces. Indeed, it is asking a lot to address most
of the complexities of combat attrition in a model with only a handful (four or five in this paper)
of parameters. The failure to find any good-fitting Lanchester model suggests that it may be
beneficial to look for new approaches to model highly aggregated attrition.”

‘Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes’
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/36736335.pdf

[MarMema]

Well it turned out there was no need for a war declaration.

Are they still operating under SMO?

Because Ukraine is getting blasted tonight and the gloves are off on not bombing civilian infrastructure.

[cranked]

‘The constant fallacy: A persistent logical flaw in applications of Lanchester’s equations’
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0377221794903034

“In this study, Joshua M. Epstein makes two separate contributions. He argues that Lanchester’s equations fail to capture the basic dynamics of warfare and that they offer a fundamentally implausible picture of combat.”
‘The Calculus of Conventional War - Dynamic Analysis without Lanchester Theory’
https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-calculus-of-conventional-war/

More can be provided.

[House Atreides]

“I wish we could have seen the speech this evening….”
****************************************************
With simultaneous English translation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVOWpSuFtIc&t=844s

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Watch and see what Russia will and can do in a real war.”

I’m watching. Show me.

[Dr. Franklin]

With simultaneous English translation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVOWpSuFtIc&t=844s

This one is better:
Vladimir Putin announces partial military mobilisation to fight Ukraine war – BBC News

In short, Putin is drafting 300,000 former Russian troops. These will either be sent to Ukraine, or stationed elsewhere to free those troops to go to Ukraine. It's the first such general mobilization for Russia since WWII. It's not likely to be popular. Also, Putin is threatening nuclear war if Russia gets kicked our of Ukraine in disgrace.

[Dr. Franklin]

‘The constant fallacy: A persistent logical flaw in applications of Lanchester’s equations’

The problem with your argument, is that the Lanchester equations explain exactly what we are witnessing in Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

[BeauBo]

Russia also conscripted a lot of soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk, through their surrogates, that have also taken lots of casualties. Along with the Wagner mercs, they fielded a larger total force

The Ukrainian forces also had additional forces under arms, like their Territorial Defense Force.

This new Russian mobilization likely means that the war will be longer, bloodier and more costly.

[Dr. Franklin]

Oh, no! The Ukrainians will be shaking in their boots! /sarcasm
Seriously: Belarus will not field even only a single brigade in Ukraine!
Lukashenko may be an evil and corrupt despot, but he's not Putin-level crazy.
Regards,

Lukashenko knows that if he sends troops to Ukraine, they might just stop at the border and point their guns north. Putin is propping him up in Belarus now, and he isn't at all popular. Anyone who believes that Lukashenko won the last election there, is smoking something funny.

[Dr. Franklin]

This new Russian mobilization likely means that the war will be longer, bloodier and more costly.

The longer this war continues, the more likely Putin's regime falls, and Russia itself could fracture. The irony of Russia claiming to be one people with Eastern Ukraine while sending ethnic non-Russians to rape and pillage can't be ignored.

[canuck_conservative]

You must have missed Grozny

you mean when Russia beat up on a helpless populace that couldn't defend itself? Russia sure likes doing that to its neighbors, doesn't it?

yes, the whole World saw that

and that's one of the reasons we all call Russia a menace, and don't trust Russia anymore

but now Russia has run up against an opponent that can defend itself, and suddenly the result isn't going Russia's way

[Blood of Tyrants]

Check again. They get paid 2000 rubles a month. About $33.

[MarMema]

Check again yourself.

[MarMema]

It means just the opposite. Watch and see. Things changed drastically last night.