Posted on 09/20/2022 3:16:49 AM PDT by EBH
The US housing market is in the midst of a “deep recession” that could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease up on interest rate hikes, a prominent economist warned on Monday.
Homebuilder confidence declined for the ninth straight month in September as surging mortgage rates and steep prices pushed many buyers out of the market, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
Builder confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014 when excluding the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the index showed.
The prolonged downturn in confidence shows the housing market has been “in a tailspin for the whole of this year,” according to Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson.
“Activity tracks mortgage applications with a lag, and the early September numbers are grim, even before the full hit from the rebound in mortgage rates in recent weeks works through,” Shepherdson said in a note to clients on Monday.
“In short, the housing market is in a deep recession, which is already hammering homebuilders and will soon depress housing-related retail sales,” he added.
The NAHB index’s monthly decline in September was more severe than analysts expected and coincided with a spike in mortgage rates. The average 30-year mortgage rate topped 6% for the first time since the housing market imploded in 2008 during the Great Recession.
Mortgage rates have spiked as the Fed moves forward with a series of rate hikes aimed at tamping down decades-high inflation.
Central bank officials are expected to implement another larger-than-normal hike of three-quarters of a percentage point, or 75 basis points, following their meeting with this week, with some analysts suggesting an unprecedented full-point hike could be in store. A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Gee, I wonder what could have caused it? /sarc
And Joe Biden approval ratings are way up according to the propaganda media. /spit
Jo Jo Brandon and his Cult followers say this is a great economy.
FAntastic news. Again wew will have a wiondow when building materials and supplies will decease in cost and a man who is handy can build his own home.
Its the American way.
Hmm.
Thursday, one block over, a home went on the market. They advertised an open house for the upcoming Sunday.
Saturday, the open house sign was gone and the listing revealed the house was under contract.
I guess it all depends on where you live.
Not really a bad thing unless real estate us how you make a living. Prices really were / are way to high.
I’m a Realtor. New construction is hard because it can take a year or more and you can’t lock in a loan for that long. Lost a deal yesterday because the builder wouldn’t be done until early Jan instead of his original est of late Nov. Resales are still booming though.
Baghdad Bob would be so proud. With the tanks advancing in his background, he still denied the advance of the thrust into downtown Baghdad.
Or the CNN reporter that stood in front of the raging fires in Portland and claimed the protests were mostly peaceful.
This is not merely a misrepresentation of facts, it is complete denial, lurching from crisis to crisis. THIS CANNOT END WELL.
More pressure on the Fed to ease interest rates, which will only prolong inflation. Wall Street and the real estate industry want to return to the days of artificially low interest rates. Let’s see if Powell does the right thing.
House Prices around here are still double what they were in 1999.
Double. They are 10% lower than 6 months ago, but still double 1999.
Neighbors house sat on market for $690-650K for a year from 1998-1999. in 2020 he re-lists it for $999,999. Sells in a day for $1.2M. Zillow says $1.4 today.
Yet, nobody else is selling.
If our Dollar is worth half to the rest of the world, THEIR MONEY is worth 15-50% LESS THAN THAT.
Japanese yen is over 140Y to a Dollar. Last Time I was in Tokyo it was 105. The Pound it $1.15. Last time I was in London (Right after Brexit) it was $1.25 and that was a new low at the time.
Our Dollars aren’t worth 1/2 outside the country. Those countries Must REALLY hate the globalists.
It definitely depends on your location. Generally speaking, I am seeing houses sell in my area but now they are consitently not selling for the asking price when that was not the case last year. Last year it was almost like “Name your price”.... totally nuts!
Powell can go ahead and do the right thing and it still won’t matter much until we stop printing and spending money.
They were rapidly building new neighborhoods in South San Antonio a few months back now the activity has slowed to a crawl.
They were rapidly building new neighborhoods in South San Antonio a few months back now the activity has slowed to a crawl.
Still going strong here in northeast Florida. They were pouring foundations with lights at 6 am this morning. The amount of construction related vehicles on the road is unreal.
“tamping down decades-high inflation.”
Ummm 2 years is decades?
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