Posted on 08/29/2022 7:07:08 AM PDT by JonPreston
Top investment banks expected Russia to suffer severe economic damage after it invaded Ukraine in February.
But Russia's economy has held up better than expected, causing them to revise those predictions.
In March, top investment bank JPMorgan said Russia's gross domestic product would fall 35% in the second quarter compared with the previous. Goldman Sachs predicted its economy would suffer its worst contraction since the Soviet Union imploded in the early 1990s. But Russia's GDP slipped only 4%
Stronger-than-expected exports of Russian commodities, including crude oil, has helped support the economy. The country has also benefited from robust demand among its own consumers and a Kremlin-devised program to keep unemployment low, according to the International Monetary Fund.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
I agree.
“Russian Corporate Profits Jump 25%”
...on average, as “electricity and gas supply” corporate profits were up 122% (likely just because of temporarily much higher gas prices, which the corporations earn, but Russian consumers pay). War spending also ramped up transportation (rail) traffic domestically.
Manufacturing volumes are way down, but the Government has been printing rubles and sending them bailout checks, while their expenses are way down from not conducting much actual activity. Manufacturing output tells a very different story from corporate profits.
Except for oil and gas price boosts and (unproductive) war spending, the rest of actual economic activity is tanking at double digit rates.
Their official Government GDP report of a 4% contraction (no doubt itself overly optimistic, or more likely blatantly inflated) also tells a very different story, than some boom town surge of 25% growth.
I was surprised to see mining profits had fallen in half. I had thought that mining was one of the bright spots for the Russian economy. It may just be that profits were squeezed, while output continues, or it might be the withdrawal of foreign investors, along with their experts, technology and financing. Possibly foreign customers moving to new suppliers, or domestic consumers (like manufacturing) dropping off, and driving lower prices as well as less volume. Russia has a lot of mineral resources (e.g. gold and diamonds), as well as some industrial materials (like titanium) that are generally scarce.
*MAGA First/Anti-War/Anti-Globalist Ping*
If you want on or off this list, please let me know.
Your guess is as good as anybody’s with regards to Gog.
Who knows?
The next couple of years are going to be very dark.
I say it will be Turkey, in alliance with China as they rebuild the Ottoman Empire. A declining Russia is a pre-requisite, and this Ukraine gambit, may be the beginning of the end for a strong Russia and the beginning of the rise of Turkey.
Russia and Iran are historically enemies. Our aggression and isolation of Russia have driven them to ally with Iran the way we are allied with Saudi Arabia.
Iran has been aligned with Russia and the USSR before that for decades and decades. Near half a century now.
Erogan has indicated in the past he would like close (perhaps very close!)ties with Turk ancestral homeland - Turkmenistan. A lot of that real estate in between maybe could be persuaded to cooperate.
Did you know the US Army had military bases in Iran up until the late 70s?
Putler’s Fan-boi’s are thrilled... But not normal, decent people.
And the ONLY reason it hasn’t collapsed further, is because of Europe. They are still buying Russia’s gas. That’s ALL Russia has going for it. It has no other industries.
And furthermore, it is only just beginning for Russia. The longer term prospects for the declining state of Russia are bad. Very bad. It is all over for them, they just don’t know it yet.
Nor does America, except your president has taken energy production off line. And you Neocons cheer.
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