Posted on 08/17/2022 4:39:28 AM PDT by Lazamataz
I never said he was a RINO or a moderate, not even close to saying that.
Begich was a good candidate and would have made a fine representative, which is all the more reason why his voters (a large number of whom probably already hated Palin to begin with) REALLY resent her fairly late entry into the race.
And and such, the Begich voters may have spitefully left Palin off their ballot or even voted for the Rat as their #2 choice.
In something effectively like a 1-on-1 race (with 2 irrelevant candidates rounding out the ballot), Begich would have easily stomped the liberal Democrat and even Rigged Choice Voting would not have saved her.
But now we have the potential for a real mess, and the same applies to the rematch for a full term in November.
Freepers don’t understand how this works in Alaska
The top four vote getters advance to general election 11-8
Then the weird counting starts again
If nobody then gets 50% plus one vote but you have to rank all four
They then throw out last place and count again using voters second choice as their “vote”
If still nobody wins majority in then a three way count
They count last time between final two
Where winner is clearly defined via ranking down to only two
It stinks to me and clearly favors moderates and is open to party shifts which is why murkowski pushed for it to become law
Alaska GOPe out outnumber Dems 2.5 to one
60% is unaffiliated but break GOPe
Hence 11-8 will likely be Murkowski and Tshkaki(sic)
And Murkowski should lose handily given in potus elections dems haven’t won since 1964 so few dems to votes to offset
And polls have Tshibaki way ahead in the lead up
A number of dems ranked Murkowski first as asked and solicited because they know a dem can’t win and they prefer her
But in the general with just her and trumper she will lose
Not enough dems to offset 20 to 30 points behind in polling
And the Alaska GOPe censured her and promoted this alternative to beat her
Ranked choice is a problem it’s too complicated first off
Closed primaries and runoffs is the best way
Sweeney is a Murkowski puppet, inserted into the House race to help the Democrat and to specifically hurt Palin who is likely to finish 2nd again (on the first ballot) just like yesterday. With no chance of finishing in the top 2 (or even top 3), Sweeney is running as a strategic ploy so that her voters will list the Democrat as their #2 choice.
In Rigged Choice Voting the #2 selections of the 3rd and 4th place finishers are of critical importance.
Sweeney to run in general election after special election bid rejected by courts
But in the general with just her [Murkowski] and trumper she will lose"
No.
The top FOUR -- not just the top TWO -- advance to November, where Murkowski will obviously reap all of the second-choice votes from the Democrat once Rigged Choice Voting kicks in after no candidate gets 50% on the first ballot.
And that will very likely be enough to put her over the top.
What Kelly needs to do in November is somehow get to 50% of first-choice votes so that RCV doesn't matter.
“Another way of looking at these results is that in an open primary 58% voted against the Hag based on early returns. I expect the rural vote, which is apparently not yet in, will go even more heavily against her. It now a matter of projecting how many Dems who supported the Dem candidate Chesbro will vote for the Hag in November. The other top four Republican, Kelley, should do the right thing and drop out.”
This! Spot on. Predictit, helpful even if it is too small to be an efficient market (e.g., even modestly deep pockets can surely move the dial), has shown her dropping recently, including a fall from 71% chance of winning to 67% in just the past several days.
At these odds I would surely bet against Murkowski. (She’ll likely see substantial attrition in these oddes in the next week or two.) At even odds I would bet against her but not bet my house.
‘ This is basically the incumbent protection act.’
Yes.
She is a Democrat
A really good question. What is wrong with Alaska?
You may be right!
( ... but you’re not)
And stealer of piknik baskets.😏
Tall order for Murkowski to top 50% out of four
You’re banking on that
Apparently you need to re-read my post. It’s Tshibaka, not Murkowski, who I say needs to get to 50%.
Otherwise you are absolutely right — it IS a tall order.
*IF* the percentages from the primary hold up (and we better all pray that they don’t):
Even if Tshibaka (at 40% on the first ballot) picks up ALL of Kelley’s second-choice votes that puts her at 42 or 43% — nowhere near the required 50%.
Then when the Democrat is eliminated, Tshibaka will have to pick up the MAJORITY of votes which went to the liberal Democrat (yeah, that sounds real plausible) rather than Murkowski.
Therefore, what Kelly needs to do in the next 2 1/2 months is to find a way to get significantly more than just 40% of first-choice votes. Getting to 50% (pipe dream) would be fantastic, but she better get to at least 45% to have a real chance in the Rigged Choice Voting portion of the contest.
When someone deliberately stabs you in the back, you are better off getting rid of them regardless of the other consequences.
Don’t count on that!
A lot of the rural vote will include Alaskan “gimmiedats”.
Looks like it will be Palin, she’s maintained a lead of a few points over Begich.
The democrat in the special election (70% reporting)
38%
The democrat in the primary for November
35.2%
Sweeney (”R”) 3.7%
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
As for the Senate, Murkowski and the rat combine for 50%....
I HATE this electoral system. God knows what it will do for the state legislature.
But it just may be a luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunatic you’re looking for.
Some people just love to doom.
Yeah, I probably would have voted Begich #1. I’d vote for the Taliban or a Chicom over a democrat, at least they’re honest.
1)I swear this shit system was invented just to save her.
2) I heard they will not even finish counting till the end of the month so probably a little later than that.
3)One would hope democrat idiots have trouble with it as well.
“I swear this shit system was invented just to save her.”
I heard someone on Real America’s Voice say that it was Murkowski or her attorney that put this system/scheme on the ballot. It was, as you say, “invented just to save her”.
Are we sure how that will pan out? There is a lot of Democrat area still out and if Pelota gets to 40% she may be able to win.
I can’t imagine that, Begich voters are loyal Republicans.
Predictit had Palin at 81 cents
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7806/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-at-large-special-election
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