Posted on 08/12/2022 8:24:14 PM PDT by AmericaFirst101
MYKOLAIV REGION, Ukraine - On the front line in southeast Ukraine, there is little sign that a major counteroffensive is brewing.
For weeks, Western intelligence and military analysts have predicted that a Ukrainian campaign to retake the strategic port city of Kherson and surrounding territory is imminent. But in trenches less than a mile from Russia's positions in the area, Ukrainian soldiers hunker down from an escalating onslaught of artillery, with little ability to advance.
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But time is slipping if Ukraine is to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky's stated goal of winning the war by the end of the year, and the current situation on the ground raises the prospect of a long, grinding stalemate instead. Residents who have fled villages in the Kherson region have described Russian forces moving in reinforcements, and officials have eyed those troop movements warily.
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The progress Ukrainian forces had made here in recent months - recapturing a string of villages from Russia's control - has largely stalled, with soldiers exposed in the open terrain.
(Excerpt) Read more at stripes.com ...
1. They absolutely MUST keep Russian forces on the east side of the Dnieper River (and potentially to the east of the Southern Bug River on the way to Odessa if the Russians make it to Mykolaiv). This is why there is so much focus currently by the Ukrainians on attacking the bridges spanning the Dnieper (including the bridge in Kherson). This also could include attacking the Kerch Strait bridge (Crimea bridge). Holding off Russian advances across the river, and cutting off Russian supply lines, is critical.
If the Ukrainians are not able to accomplish #1, then the war is probably lost, I think. This is their best shot at preventing Russia from obtaining what her objectives seem to be (control of the east and south of Ukraine).
If #1 is not accomplished, then my guess is that you're looking at more unrealistic scenarios to hold off the Russian advance, like:
2. Influx of (declared) foreign troops into Ukraine. Not mercenaries, but like the army of Poland. That kind of thing. Or NATO forces.
3. Some kind of truly game-altering weaponry or amount of weaponry that would radically alter the landscape. HIMARS and Harpoons are helping in this regard, but it remains to be seen if they will be enough.
The HIMARS have given Ukraine the ability to out-distance the Russian artillery and attack the Dnieper bridges. That gives Ukraine a chance.
We'll see if it is enough, in the end. From the sounds of this Washington Post article, not sure it will be enough for the Ukrainians.
If the ukronazis surrender now they might make it through the winter without starving and freezing...
That’s another factor in all this. The winter yet to come.
So much for the ‘Million Man March’ that Zelensky promised.
It seems that Ukraine was serious about it, though as they moved some of their best units down there, which is why they’re now getting demolished up in Donbass (where those units had been).
The problem was every time they tried to move east towards Kherson, they got pummeled as there is no natural cover there and without control of the airspace, not a chance.
Seems like a stalemate. Neither side is strong enough to take the initative at this point.
Zelensky is too focused on sodomy issues these days. Gotta look good for that Vanity Fair spread.
Agreed on all points.
I do think that Ukraine is doing their best to mobilize, but it’s not easy. They are taking heavy losses, especially in the east. It mounts up, including in lost morale that makes it harder to get/keep new fighters.
It does seem that Ukraine is trying to move more forces out of the Donbass and south towards Kherson. That’s probably something they should have done before, in my opinion. Just to minimize the losses in the east, if no other reason.
The flat plain between Mykolaiv and Kherson is a potential killing field for anyone who tries to cross it, no doubt. Especially, as you said, without cover fire.
For me, this is all about the bridges (at least for now). Of course the fighting will continue in the east, with Russia grinding away, but all the key fighting currently is about bridges/river control.
Good point. The Ukrainians are targeting some ammo dumps with the HIMARS, it seems. That can help them a bit to even the scales. But I agree with you — Russia has the edge in artillery supplies and it isn’t going to be easy to make up the difference without a lot of West help.
LOL. If you believe the local propagandists, then the offensive is in full-swing complete with combat footage, maps, thousands of “orcs” encircled here and where, hundreds of tanks destroyed, 58 towns “liberated”.....and now this?:)
Ha. If the Washington Post is putting out this story, then you know things are relatively grim for the Ukrainian side.
Propaganda only holds up for so long in war.
Ukraine needs Tomahawk missiles and airframes to defend their skies. Also Abrams tanks.
The West may have to consider things like that
The stalemate favors Russia because if Ukraine takes enough damage that they have to settle for a cease fire, Russia will use it as an opportunity to replenish their reserves and prepare for another attack.
What is your evaluation of weapons of such sorts ending up in the hands of America’s enemies?
What if the folks in Latin America decide that the US was harsh to them?
There is the reason why the post-Cold War wars were relatively bloodless for the American military. It can change.
In fact not. Relatively slow gring is in Russia’s favor. Negotiations are perfectly useless because Ukraine never holds its part of the deal and proud of it.
Good point
“… If the Ukrainians are not able to accomplish #1, then the war is probably lost, I think. This is their best shot at preventing Russia from obtaining what her objectives seem to be (control of the east and south of Ukraine).…”
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If the Ukrainians don’t stop their INSANE artillery shelling of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe they are going to have to worry about a lot more than Russian control of the east and south of Ukraine.
Yeah. I guess they are trying anything. But that is very dangerous. Not sure the strategy on that one.
We sell Abrams to Egypt and Saudi Arabia. If they can figure it out the Ukes should be able to.
oh yeah
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