Ross Douthat: Republicans can do better on abortion

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ^ | August 10, 2022 | Ross Douthat, NYT

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Nobody who favored overturning Roe ought to be particularly surprised by the result of the Kansas referendum on abortion. By the margin, maybe — but a Republican state voting to preserve a right to abortion emphasizes what’s always been apparent: With the end of Roe, the pro-life movement now has to adapt to the democratic contest that it sought.

Right now, majorities of Americans favor abortion restrictions that were ruled out under Roe, but only slightly over one-third of the country takes the position that abortion should be largely illegal, a number that shrinks if you remove various exceptions.

That means that millions of Americans who voted for Donald Trump favor a right to a first-trimester abortion — some of them old-fashioned, country-club Republicans, others secular, working-class voters or anti-woke “Barstool conservatives” who dislike elite progressivism but find religious conservatism alienating as well.

In many red as well as purple states, those constituencies hold the balance of power. Even with exceptions, a state probably needs to be either very Republican or very religious for a first-trimester abortion ban to be popular, which basically means the Deep South and Mountain (and especially Mormon) West. That was clear before Roe fell — that outright bans would be the exceptions, and the contest in many states would be over how far restrictions can go.

The Kansas result confirms that assumption. The state already has a late-term ban, and the prolix ballot measure didn’t specify an alternative; it just promised the legislature a general power to write new abortion laws. Would the result have been different if the referendum had proposed restrictions around 12 weeks? I suspect so.

Can the anti-abortion movement settle for that kind of goal? Well, that’s the question, with different states supplying different answers.

[Round Earther]

Mr. Douthat is reading the Kansas referendum all wrong as the restrictions that Kansas would have otherwise approved to protect life did not go far enough to recognize abortion as murder and prosecute all persons and organizations involved in seeking, performing and having an abortion with Capital or Murder in the First Degree.

[JayGalt]

The writer lacks context and nuance.
The Kansas referendum does not carry the implication inferred by the article. The referendum was poorly written & convoluted. It’s impact was unclear. The electorate rejected it on that basis according to many writers.
There is not evidence that this was a full throated prochoice vote. In the next few years as legislation is advanced the desires & beliefs of each State and of the American people will be made clear.

[nbenyo]

Taken with the stronger than expected Democrat challenges in recent Minnesota and Nebraska special elections, it is clear that the abortion issue is helping Democrats.

[JayGalt]

We will have to agree to disagree.

[hinckley buzzard]

Douthat is the Slimes’ latest pet “conservative”. If he were a serious observer he would know that Prolifers have always known that the reversal of Roe meant a new 50-state phase of the battle, some states would win and some would lose. No surprises in that.

[aquila48]

“In many red as well as purple states, those constituencies hold the balance of power. Even with exceptions, a state probably needs to be either very Republican or very religious for a first-trimester abortion ban to be popular, which basically means the Deep South and Mountain (and especially Mormon) West. That was clear before Roe fell — that outright bans would be the exceptions, and the contest in many states would be over how far restrictions can go.”

I tend to agree. Since the Supremes left the decision to the voters of each state, you’re going to see a range of restrictions - from essentially total restriction to none, depending on how conservative or liberal the majority of the states voters are.