Posted on 06/30/2022 11:12:22 AM PDT by frogjerk
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Please note that we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.
Latest estimate: -1.0 percent — June 30, 2022 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent on June 30, down from 0.3 percent on June 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter GDP growth increased from -0.11 percentage points to 0.35 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
I do predict the number will be negative.
Many think they will fudge it to help Democrats, but a negative number means recession and a reason to get Biden to not run for re-election.
First quarter negative growth + second quarter negative growth = recession.
This will confuse the bejezzus out Biden. He thinks we are fine.
(the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -8.1 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -13.2 percent, respectively)
This is Building Back Better?
Asking for a friend...
Well, Biden did say Switzerland will join NATO. Not a thing wrong here.
Oh believe me they tried... just 3 days ago on the 27th the put out a laughable +.3% estimate for Q2... they have been desperately trying every trick in the book too keep it positive... lie, cheat, steal... but in the end, even all that wasn’t enough.
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