But it also describes the consequences of Russia losing for Russia.
There is no scenario under which both Ukraine and Russia can win.
I think that if the article is correct, then Ukraine is Serbia and the current conflict is the start of a new world war.
If Russia loses, something will fill the void, and most likely that will be Turkey. And you ain’t gonna like it.
“Any peace that secures Russian assent will be tantamount to Russian victory. Russian victory will divide and in time destroy the Atlantic Alliance, severely weakening the United States’ long-term position in Eurasia.”
If Europe doesn’t want to freeze this winter, I expect the price to be that NATO dissolves and the US is forced to pull out.
Another geriatric Neocon trying to start a world war.
FarCenter
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This guy sounds like a warmongering NOOB!
The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis
The war in Ukraine is a multi-dimensional disaster, which is likely to get much worse in the foreseeable future.
by John J. Mearsheimer / June 23
[This speech was given at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence on Thursday, June 16.]
[This transcribed speech will be considered one of the most important treatises on the Russo-Ukraine war in coming years and decades. Every statement will be studied and debated. I urge folks on all sides to read it in its entirety. I’m only posting the concluding paragraphs here due to space and brevity considerations.]
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/causes-and-consequences-ukraine-crisis-203182
Conclusion:
Simply put, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a colossal disaster, which as I noted at the start of my talk, will lead people all around the world to search for its causes. Those who believe in facts and logic will quickly discover that the United States and its allies are mainly responsible for this train wreck. The April 2008 decision to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO was destined to lead to conflict with Russia.
The Bush administration was the principal architect of that fateful choice, but the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations have doubled down on that policy at every turn and America’s allies have dutifully followed Washington’s lead. Even though Russian leaders made it perfectly clear that bringing Ukraine into NATO would be crossing “the brightest of red lines,” the United States refused to accommodate Russia’s deepest security concerns and instead moved relentlessly to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border.
The tragic truth is that if the West had not pursued NATO expansion into Ukraine, it is unlikely there would be a war in Ukraine today and Crimea would still be part of Ukraine. In essence, Washington played the central role in leading Ukraine down the path to destruction. History will judge the United States and its allies harshly for their remarkably foolish policy on Ukraine. Thank you.
/ / /
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. His many books include The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities and The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
Not enough reason to explain why we’re in this war.
This assumes Russia hasn’t already won.
I wouldn’t make that assumption.
Russia will win.
And there is nothing Dementia Joe can do about it, including some shotgun NATO membership for Ukraine.
The billionaire globalist psychopaths and the Uniparty criminal complex can’t let Russia win.
Maybe so. And NATO was futile in dealing with the Serbian conflict. Given Putin’s history and motives, and given EU’s obvious ambivalence, I think the only possible outcome is a negotiated settlement that gives Russia the essentials of what it wants.
Settling into this war of attrition, fueled by a modicum of western military support, just enough to keep it going, is of no benefit to anyone but eventually Russia; and Joe Biden, who gets to try to present himself as a decisive wartime president in the elections.
If Russia loses, the WEF, DC, London, NATO, the EU, Uke fascism, globohomo, in other words, the most dangerous enemies of the average American are strengthened.
Conclusion:
US Deep State & Globalists have created an untenable position.
Gee: Go figure.
Hey CINOs: Nice going. /s
I think this article is completely bunk. NATO collapses if Ukraine is defeated and/or comes to a peace agreement that leaves the Donbas in Russian hands? I don’t buy that. At all.
If anything, the alliance is stronger. The Western Europeans have finally woken up and realized they need to provide for their own defense and need to diversify their energy supplies. The US had been screaming at them to do this for 30-40 years to no avail. Now there’s no political resistance to it any more.
Another point I disagree with are his claims about Putin having grandiose ambitions everywhere else. Russia will win this conflict but it has been costly economically and militarily. If anything, I think this will make Putin or any other future Russian leader cautious about taking the military option.
Pouring yet more money and yet more weapons down the Ukraine rat hole is not in American interests. Ukraine should be pressured to make a deal ceding those areas Russia occupies which just so happen to correspond to historical Russian territory and which are filled mostly with ethnic Russians who are Russian speakers.
Yes we do need to focus much more on the Asia Pacific Region. The Europeans should be able to defend themselves with America in reserve - not at the forefront.
So many institutes and institutional men out there, This one, Seth Cropsey, born in 1948, is a open neocon, and founder and president of Yorktown Institute. He served as a US naval officer and as deputy undersecretary of the navy, and is the author of the books Mayday and Seablindness.
https://yorktowninstitute.org/
If one looks at the Yorktown Institute splash page today, the first article by Stephen Bryen (highlighted) is titled "US and NATO Lack Capability to Supply a Long War."
Seems that the Ukraine/Russia conflict is already catastrophic, so his Asia Times article is more blah-blah heaped onto the morass of commentary about that which cannot be known.
What may be known is that, according to Yorktown, "US and NATO Lack Capability to Supply a Long War." What may also been known is that the current Western sanctions are harming the West far more effectively that an actual but non-nuclear war with Russia. The current crop of neocons -- Kagans, Nuland and this guy in the headlines -- want US hegemony over the world, while the West "lacks capability." Fighting to the death for all those young Ukrainian men who will never be fathers is not a future for Ukraine, while the neocons and Leftists like Biden and the Democrat princelings who were making millions in the Ukraine (Biden, Pelosi, Kerry and Romney) cheer on the carnage. From afar.
Yeah. Either way, this thing -- like the recent Covid "event" and economically destructive lockdowns -- is catastrophic. Another analysis should turn the tide.
By the way, among Cropsey's Yorktown advisors is ex-Senator and Gore running mate, Lieberman, so "neocon." huh?
What would REALLY be catastrophic for the current game is if SWIFT, being used to sanction Russia, was now bypassed as a competitive currency transfer exchange among the BRICS were to be one result of the proxy war between Russia and neocon grift and corruption. No good players in this game, I'd say.
NATO is the free, anti-communist NATO of the cold war era; Putin isn’t another Stalin or Khrushchev; and we can better use Zelensky’s $100 billion here at home.
You posting your Asia Times commie propaganda again, newbie??
** IGNORE **
Globalism, the new world order and neoconism absolutely must die if American First, MAGA nationalism is to replace it.
Any Republican that supports any of that needs to cleansed from the party by the base.
Russia is successfully in control of the two separatist territories. Ukraine lacks the wherewithall to dislodge the Russian and separatist forces.
In that sense, Russia has won. But, since Ukraine did not actually control the territories, they were not lost to the Russians.
Russian forces invding elsewhere were decimated. That is, they lost. The Ukraine forces therefore repelled them and won
Ukraine is severely war torn and damaged. Russian military is but a shadow of what it was before the failed invasion. Russia is under debilitating sanctions and is economically withering on the vine.
Russia is clearly the loser at this point with Europe against it and piling on with the economic destruction of sickly Mother Russia.