Posted on 06/28/2022 4:31:45 AM PDT by FarCenter
...
Assessment The fight for Lysychansk is unfolding much more rapidly in Russia’s favor than did the exceedingly slow grind at Severodonetsk.
Another slow-grind siege will play heavily into Russia’s hands. The UGS needs to find a way to regain some mobility and initiative and reopen supply lines or pull out troops, collapse the salient and withdraw to a more defensible perimeter.
Hopes that the arrival of new weapons will turn the tide are misplaced. The arrival of such arms might allow for a counteroffensive from a stronger line of defense rather than simply leading to another defeat and loss of morale if or when the new weapons are introduced haphazardly.
But talk of ending the war by winter with Ukrainian forces emerging victorious and having regained the ground now lost seems a stretch by any count. That Zelensky talks that talk is understandable but is hardly realistic.
Contrary to such talk and the pinning of expectations on the arrival of “game-changer” weapons systems from the West, massive losses of manpower, including their best soldiers, is the Ukrainians’ principal battlefield issue.
(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...
I think Ukraine will lose its Eastern half to Russia, but the west needs to drag this out.
Another loss for Biden will hurt him in the mid-terms, so the goal is to keep things going until after the election where they can agree to Russia’s demands.
Putin’s email to us this morning noted that some of the inexperienced Ukrainians now fighting are not doing so in a coordinated manner, so his boys are noting incidents of friendly-fire where one group of Ukrainians opens fire and takes out another group of Ukrainians. Pretty scattered so far, he tells us, but they didn’t see their earlier in the war.
LOL.
“Ukraine will receive units of the NASAMS air defense system from the US”
People are saying that Russia is dragging out this war so as to get experience taking out and/or capturing Western military systems.
Pretty sad for the Ukrainians that Putin would use them in that way, rather than simply liberating them quickly.
WW1 was being compared to this conflict yesterday in a discussion in terms of how a small potential war became a world war due to political pacts etc.
Anyway just a coincidence but today is the anniversary of Archduke Ferdinand assassination.
https://www.onthisday.com/people/franz-ferdinand
The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis
The war in Ukraine is a multi-dimensional disaster, which is likely to get much worse in the foreseeable future.
by John J. Mearsheimer / June 23
[This speech was given at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence on Thursday, June 16.]
[This transcribed speech will be considered one of the most important treatises on the Russo-Ukraine war in coming years and decades. Every statement will be studied and debated. I urge folks on all sides to read it in its entirety. I’m only posting the concluding paragraphs here due to space and brevity considerations.]
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/causes-and-consequences-ukraine-crisis-203182
Conclusion:
Simply put, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a colossal disaster, which as I noted at the start of my talk, will lead people all around the world to search for its causes. Those who believe in facts and logic will quickly discover that the United States and its allies are mainly responsible for this train wreck. The April 2008 decision to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO was destined to lead to conflict with Russia.
The Bush administration was the principal architect of that fateful choice, but the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations have doubled down on that policy at every turn and America’s allies have dutifully followed Washington’s lead. Even though Russian leaders made it perfectly clear that bringing Ukraine into NATO would be crossing “the brightest of red lines,” the United States refused to accommodate Russia’s deepest security concerns and instead moved relentlessly to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border.
The tragic truth is that if the West had not pursued NATO expansion into Ukraine, it is unlikely there would be a war in Ukraine today and Crimea would still be part of Ukraine. In essence, Washington played the central role in leading Ukraine down the path to destruction. History will judge the United States and its allies harshly for their remarkably foolish policy on Ukraine. Thank you.
/ / /
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. His many books include The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities and The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
Pls see #8.
The killing stops when Russia is gone.
Video of Russian "liberated" Ukrainian town of Popasna-dead ruins.
RT @RT_com Russia state-affiliated media
Ukrainian cops scour nightclubs for draft dodgers
219 men were pulled from Kiev venues and sent for military registration
6:30 AM · Jun 28, 2022
“The killing stops when Russia is gone.”
I’m not sure that most Ukrainian moms would agree with you.
“ The Bush administration was the principal architect of that fateful choice”
George Jr is my least favorite Republican POTUS I’ve ever lived under. Of course he’s better than Sleepy Joe but that means little.
I think of the favorable conservative mood of the country then AND how much power we had in congress etc and compare it to how little was accomplished in conservative terms like on the Border. He is a true RINO through and through.
(His VP was Cheney by the way, look what a nasty RINO his daughter is…apples don’t fall far from the tree.)
Instead he chased non-existent WMDs in Iraq.
It is. Ice to see that the Ukrainians are willing to die for Joe Biden’s midterm election strategy.
LOL, John Mearsheimer was right in 1993 when he wrote "The case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent", he argued that to reduce the dangers of war, the US should accept the possibility of Germany and Ukraine developing a nuclear arsenal and work to prevent the rise of excessive nationalism... Mearsheimer argued it to be strategically unwise for Ukraine to surrender its nuclear arsenal (remnants of the Soviet stockpile).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer
Poor Tlozo, you put your hopes on neocons who only know how to start wars and then lose them slowly for profit. Do you feel like a fool? Do you?
Zelensky approval is in the 90's.
Ukrainians were going to have to fight for their freedom from Russian imperialists like Putin, sooner or later. This Putin invasion has put and end to any talk of Ukrainians, even ethnic Russians in Ukraine, wanting to be part of Putin's Russia. It has also ended the myth of Russian military might. NATO countries are increasing their military expenditure with Sweden, Finland joining NATO. All good for the US. :)
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