Posted on 06/15/2022 9:35:51 AM PDT by frogjerk
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Please note that we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.
Latest estimate: 0.0 percent — June 15, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 15, down from 0.9 percent on June 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, -8.5 percent to -9.2 percent, and 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent, respectively.
Yup, I would say it is!
This is how they will avoid the ‘R’ word at the end of the quarter...................
No, no!
Can’t have a recession unless GDP is negative two quarters in a row! Since Q1 2022 was negative, Biden MUST have Q2 at least be 0.0.
But April and May were negative already. Leaves him 2 weeks to force June positive somehow.
GMTA!......................
> Latest estimate: 0.0 percent <
“Another damn lie,” President Biden will say angrily. “The true growth rate is at least double that!”
They are going to do whatever they can to keep this reality of a recession from being “official.” Well, 0.0 isn’t negative, you see, so technically not a recession.
In a month the GDPNOW estimate has gone from 2.5% to 0.0%. Let’s see what the next few weeks brings. GDPNOW should update their numbers about 5 or so times til then.
Mayor Faggy Buttgagger will manipulate the import/export numbers to make sure traitor joe gets a positive GDP rate.
> They are going to do whatever they can to keep this reality of a recession from being “official.” <
Yep. Expect them to tweak the data to get the GDP into positive territory again. Perhaps they could normalize the data. Or they could add seasonally adjusted factors.
This would all be made-up stuff, of course. But the media and most people would buy it.
If we look at the trend I would expect, if it continues, it will be -1.3% which will be really hard to manipulate. But I’m sure they will try.
You did it, Joe! And from what I have read, this recession will impact Rat areas (urban, tech, finance) more heavily.
Definitely NOT a recession.
Shhhh...should't have said the "R" word out loud.
Exactly!
If they put it at 0.0%, they are showing the whole world that
they are willing to falsify information just to protect their
sorry asses.
The chance of hitting 0.0% is essentially 0.0%.
Just found out that 0.0% is actually incorrect. It is -0.02% and was rounded up/down
So, they are officially forecasting recession, rounding notwithstanding.
And adjusted for inflation?
Two negative quarters ladies and gentlemen.
Let’s go Brandon.
5.56mm
Yes
How long before we hear Slow Joe rage on about “Putin’s recession?”
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