Palin with big lead in primary ((Alaska)

CNN ^ | June 12, 2022

[campaignPete R-CT]

Palin headed towards first place finish in Alaska House primary.

Top 4 finishers advance to August special election.

[Republican Wildcat]

It’s a ranked choice voting system so Begich dropping out wouldn’t really make a difference - if his voters don’t vote for Palin as their second choice then they certainly wouldn’t vote for her as their first choice.

[Republican Wildcat]

Trump lost Iowa...all of the momentum after that was with Rubio who finished “stronger than expected” until he had his robotic moment at the NH primary debate and that all vaporized.

[Dr. Franklin]

They use rank choice voting in the General election.
Vote 1, 2, 3
So it comes down to two people ... one gets over 50%

Sounds like ranked choice voting will be used to explain an algorithm that results in fractional votes. Where did we see that before? I don't like "jungle primaries". Let each party choose its candidate however it wants. Allow reasonable access to third parties or independents in the general election. Then have a run off election between the top two candidates. This sounds like it was designed to rig the election.

[Political Junkie Too]

As I said in my earlier post, by dropping out he eliminates the opportunity to use the Begich votes to say that Alaskans were split on Palin.

They will say and do anything to try to undermine her popularity and credibility. That's why I think that having a unified GOP candidate going into the general election will take that character assassination attempt off the table.

-PJ

[Republican Wildcat]

This was a jungle primary - it was the electorate at large. She was the most well known candidate by far with 100% name ID. She got 29% of the vote (still counting). Not exactly an electoral juggernaut. Keep in mind it could also be risky for voters who don’t like Palin but would put her second if they turn out and vote - the most likely people to do that would be Begich voters. She’s about as unpopular in the state as Biden...so she will need second choice voters to win.

[Republican Wildcat]

This sounds like it was designed to rig the election.

It was the Murkowski Protection Act in all but name.

[Political Junkie Too]

Ok.

-PJ

[campaignPete R-CT]

Begich’s goal was to qualify for the top 4 ... which he has done. Why would he drop out?

Yes, Murkowski is running for Senate. It’ll be another 4 person election with rank choice.

[Political Junkie Too]

My philosophy is that in a 3+ person race, you're either the winner or a spoiler.

Does Begich think he's going to win a come-from-behind race after coming in second? What does he know?

-PJ

[Still Thinking]

It is.

[Political Junkie Too]

It's harder to rig if the players won't play. That's why I'm calling for the second-place GOP candidate to withdraw and endorse the winner.

If the rules are consistently applied, there won't be a new fifth-place contender promoted to fourth place. The second-place GOP will still hold the position, but then withdraw after the ballot is certified, making it a three-candidate race with one GOP choice, one Democrat choice, and one spoiler instead of two.

-PJ

[campaignPete R-CT]

Begich’s goal is to finish 2nd ahead of Gross. He would be the 2nd choice of Gross voters ... and beat Palin one-on-one

[Impy]

So with Gross dropping out, it’s a 3 way not a 4 way.

Whether Palin or Begich wins likely depends on whether the dem finishes ahead of Begich for 2nd place in initial count or not.

[campaignPete R-CT]

If it’s Palin vs. Begich as the final 2, whom would the DEM voters choose?

Palin because she’s not part of the GOP establishment and has broader appeal?
Begich because of his DEM family name?

If Begich’s more of the hard conservative, they’ll go with Palin.