So with Gross dropping out, it’s a 3 way not a 4 way.
Whether Palin or Begich wins likely depends on whether the dem finishes ahead of Begich for 2nd place in initial count or not.
If it’s Palin vs. Begich as the final 2, whom would the DEM voters choose?
Palin because she’s not part of the GOP establishment and has broader appeal?
Begich because of his DEM family name?
If Begich’s more of the hard conservative, they’ll go with Palin.