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It’s Time to Beat Putin at Poker and Call His Bluff
Foreign policy ^ | 9th April 2022 | Jason pack

Posted on 04/30/2022 5:17:58 AM PDT by Cronos

Putin’s machismo leads him to underestimate his adversaries and show off for domestic and international consumption. Unsurprisingly, his favorite tactic is unprovoked aggression—in other words, the bluff. He got away with it in Georgia in 2008, Syria from 2012 onward, in annexing Crimea in 2014

...Yet last month, he was caught completely off guard when the West finally called his biggest raise ever. As boxer Mike Tyson said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

The West’s reactive jab of sanctions and aggressive arming of the Ukrainians appear to have completely stalled—and now reversed—Russia’s advance on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Bruised and bloodied, his forces in retreat, Putin is cobbling together an ad hoc response. By publicly claiming to refocus his campaign on the Donbass, and implicitly the land corridor connecting it to Crimea and Moldova, he may be further bluffing when it comes to his real objectives and future tactics.

The weaker his underlying hand, the more that Putin must continue to rely on bluffs and misdirection. Hence, even though Russia is losing, it is unlikely that Putin will ever voluntarily de-escalate.

...Russian National Guard members are refusing to fight in Ukraine. Every day, new evidence appears of Russian soldiers sabotaging their own vehicles. A miscalculation or sign of weakness from Putin could engender a palace coup or mass desertion among the armed forces

During the height of the pandemic, Putin had people wear hazmat suits in order to meet him. Nowadays, he sits 20 feet away at meetings even with his own inner circle. He wants to live. He is only playing the role of being macho. He respects force and aggression

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: 1everyonehasaplan; 2tilltheygetasked; 3topayinrubles; agitprop; armageddon; bigrubleinlittleruss; clownworld; fabulism; feverdreams; fullretard; growup; jasonpack; neocon; nevergofullretard; payupsuckers; pipedreams; roubles; rubleisat72; rubles; stupidshouldhurt; threads4dummies; ukrainicorns; warmonger; warporn; youcantfixstupid; youwentfullretard
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To: Wonder Warthog; blackberry1
I read a LOT of sources and, so far, not seeing any proof.

RF has published the names of over 4000 POWs...here's a few of them. Maybe you need new 'sources'.


61 posted on 04/30/2022 9:38:52 AM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
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To: Cronos
He's got the better cards and hasn't been bluffing.

It's amazing how many fools here believe the Biden regime when all it does is bluff and spew out lies.

62 posted on 04/30/2022 9:43:24 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: Cronos
Putin is evil but the country that names streets after and build monuments to Nazi collaborators and uses neo-Nazis on its frontlines are the good guys.

You're a fool. Ukraine doesn't resemble a democracy. It's been one of the most corrupt nations in Europe, one whose oligarchs have laundered money back to the Bidens, Clintons and other corrupt politicians and their family members.

As Putin said some time ago -- compared to their critics, the Russians are "white, fluffy angels."

63 posted on 04/30/2022 9:46:58 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: Wonder Warthog

Apparently they really, really, really don’t want to be part of “New Russia”.
————-
But the Eastern Donbass provinces do. When Vlad took back the Crimea, they experienced explosive growth, some 50 percent yoy growth. 380,000 Russians moved to Crimea. Many ethnic Russians were glad to shed the Ukie wide spread corruption.


64 posted on 04/30/2022 10:23:11 AM PDT by delta7
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To: BobL

The Biden connections to Ukraine made it REALLY EASY to figure out what side not to take.

————————————————

I know what side I’ll take. Not the Russian side or the Uke side.

I’m on the US side. Forget Putin invading Ukraine. I’m more worried about how my country has been invaded.


65 posted on 04/30/2022 10:42:47 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (I love my country. It's my government that I hate.)
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To: delta7

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/06/03/crimean-economy-named-fastest-growing-in-russia-a65851

Crimea’s growth in January-March 2019 was buoyed by construction and manufacturing, which grew by over 20 percent each, RBC cited research by the Institute for Complex Strategic Studies (ICSS) as saying.

Agriculture, retail and services in Crimea averaged 3 percent growth in January-March this year.

Construction in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol — Russia’s second-fastest growing economy — grew by almost 71 percent in January-March 2019, with agriculture, manufacturing, retail and services averaging 3.4 percent.

While Crimea and Sevastopol’s rapid growth means they are no longer the country’s poorest regions, they still rank near the bottom, Natalia Zubarevich, an expert in regional economics and a professor at Moscow State University, was quoted as saying.

“There’s an economic term called ‘base effect’ when, if your base is low, you grow faster; and when it’s high, [you grow] slower,” RBC quoted Zubarevich as saying. “It’s noticeable when you had nothing and it suddenly grows, especially with budget money.”

The Leningrad region — with construction up by 130 percent — came in as Russia’s third-fastest growing economy. The North Caucasus republics of Ingushetia and Chechnya grew at the fourth and fifth-fastest clips in January-March 2019.”
—————————
That’s 20 percent ( others cite 40 percent) year over year. The Ethnic Russian Crimea is reaping benefits under a Vlad that were non existent with the Ukies. The same will be when the Donbass provinces have their Independence from Ukraine recognized.


66 posted on 04/30/2022 11:24:06 AM PDT by delta7
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To: Cronos

LOL, no We should have a wall with radar-guided chainguns.


67 posted on 04/30/2022 11:33:20 AM PDT by Trailerpark Badass (“There should be a whole lot more going on than throwing bleach,” said one woman.)
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To: Cronos

It’s Biden’s handlers who’ll make the call. Not a lot of bravery there.


68 posted on 04/30/2022 11:39:38 AM PDT by Does so (https://youtu.be/3PxEWB6W8ig ......Uke's Independence Day Parade. Anthem starts at 15:00)
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To: delta7
"...380,000 Russians moved to Crimea. Many ethnic Russians were glad to shed the Ukie wide spread corruption."

My, my...I wonder whose land was stolen to make a place for those 380,000 Russians. Sounds like "colonialism" to me.

69 posted on 04/30/2022 12:18:41 PM PDT by Wonder Warthog (Not Responding to Seagull Snark)
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To: mac_truck

Glad someone was able to back their bullshit with facts...now, about those 25,000 dead Russian soldiers....


70 posted on 04/30/2022 12:19:31 PM PDT by Wonder Warthog (Not Responding to Seagull Snark)
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To: allendale

“Putin was not bluffing. He was delusional. He actually thought the Russian army was still the juggernaut that it was from 1943-1945.

Old, stale politicians often become delusional regardless of their ideology or nationality.’

They haven’t forgotten rape, murder, looting, and vandalism.


71 posted on 04/30/2022 1:01:20 PM PDT by rxh4n1
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To: Regulator; NorseViking; BobL; katie didit

Correct, if President Trump was in power the stupid Russians would never gave dared invade Ukraine.

The Ruski were afraid of the USA under Trump as they would have been stomped.


72 posted on 04/30/2022 1:24:36 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Putin and Soros are two sides of the same globalist evil.

Putin evil and soros evil.

Death to both of them


73 posted on 04/30/2022 1:26:54 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: antidemoncrat

It is a bluff. Look at his failures in Ukraine


74 posted on 04/30/2022 1:27:25 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Perfessers?

Having trouble with the Latin script?

Russian schools turn out more idiots than in the USA. The best and brightest Russians leave that cesspit. No wonder Russia is so stupid


75 posted on 04/30/2022 1:29:36 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos

Slavs


76 posted on 04/30/2022 1:30:53 PM PDT by bert ( (KW?E. NP. N.C. +12) Promoting Afro Heritage diversity will destroy the democrats)
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To: Dr. Franklin

Pooptin hasn’t got a successor in place. When he’s gone, Russia will fracture. And it will be Putin’s fault.


77 posted on 04/30/2022 1:31:22 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: delta7

“guess the west is hell bent on fighting Vlad down to the last Ukrainian”
Ukrainians aren’t fighting for the west or for Zelensky.

Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and loved ones. They are fighting because they don’t want to be under Muscowy.

That is the good side.


78 posted on 04/30/2022 1:33:04 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: bert

Not all Slavs. Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Croatia and Slovenia use the Latin script. Serbia uses both Latin and Cyrillic


79 posted on 04/30/2022 1:36:08 PM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos
Pooptin hasn’t got a successor in place. When he’s gone, Russia will fracture. And it will be Putin’s fault.

Wishful thinking. There is probably a solid succession plan in place (they've learned from post-Stalin and post Gobachev), and Russia will be around for a long time, despite the demographic problems. Russia will look a lot different in 100 years, just as the US will look very different ethnically. We could have avoided all this crap by just being gracious victors in the cold war. This is no longer a unipolar world.

80 posted on 04/30/2022 1:40:12 PM PDT by scottinoc
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