Posted on 04/29/2022 5:56:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
In recent weeks, I've noted how, as COVID-19 mask mandates fall by the wayside, the nation has been moving away from what now seems excessive risk aversion. And I've described the National Bureau of Economic Research paper assessing how the costs of the lockdowns have exceeded the benefits.
As one might expect, the damage has not been geographically even. COVID-19 restrictions have been most stringent in the largest metropolitan areas because the dangers of contagion seemed to be the greatest in areas where people are so densely packed. And it is also because these areas tend to be in states with Democratic governors, and Democrats have been more risk-averse than Republicans.
Evidence of this comes from the Census Bureau's estimates of the population on July 1, 2021, as compared to the results of the regular decennial Census conducted on April 1, 2020. The data shows the smallest percentage of a population increase in American history, just 0.13%.
An unprecedented 18 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia all lost population. The biggest percentages of population losses were in Washington, D.C. (-2.8%), New York (-1.8%), Illinois (-1.1%), and California (-0.8%) -- all densely populated, all politically woke.
The 2021 population estimates for counties and metropolitan areas provide an additional focus. A map of counties showing population gains or losses shows hundreds of small counties losing population -- as many have for decades.
But the biggest losses, in both population and percentage loss, came in four of the nation's six largest metropolitan areas: San Francisco/San Jose (-2.6%), New York (-1.8%), Chicago (-1.1%) and Los Angeles/Riverside (-0.8%). Each of the first three, in just 15 months from April 2020 to July 2021, lost a population that equaled 20% of their total population gain in the 20 years between 2000 and 2020. The figure for Los Angeles/Riverside was lower at 7%, but that remains stunning.
Taken together, these four metropolitan areas lost 805,000 people (numbers are rounded off for clarity), while the rest of the nation gained 1,239,000.
These are alarming numbers in four metropolitan areas that, even after these population losses, continue to be home to 1 in 6 (16%) people in the United States. At least temporarily, they lost affluent professionals who could make money Zooming from their summer places.
But it's also noteworthy, and probably more permanent, that people with modest educations and incomes have fled far beyond the exurbs. That's not true everywhere: The central city counties of the No. 4 and No. 5 metropolitan areas, Dallas and Houston, lost population, but that was more than offset by gains in the counties beyond. Metropolitan Dallas' population was up 4.9% in 2020-21, and metropolitan Houston's was up 3.5%.
As the demographic expert Joel Kotkin has argued, even before COVID-19, the nation's population growth and its economic dynamism had been concentrated disproportionately in the exurbs, which typically have reasonable tax rates and development-friendly regulations.
Exurban growth tapered off in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial collapse, which was triggered by the overstimulation of exurban housing, especially among Hispanic residents. But, as Kotkin noted, growth quickly resumed in the exurbs and in parts of the Rocky Mountains and the North Woods. Where it's missing is in the outlying exurbs in high-tax New York, New Jersey and California.
Many optimistically predict a comeback in central cities as lockdowns and masking are, however reluctantly, phased out. Even so, the sharp 2020-21 decline in the population of Manhattan, heavily gentrified Washington and the hip neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens suggests this could be an uphill struggle.
The young people who jammed into hip, edgy neighborhoods in these areas may not find their way back. And while they may change the tone of the more conventional places where they land, they also may end up living more conventionally than if they had stayed planted in their comfortable hothouses.
Their apparent disappearance is more evidence of the self-harm that liberal and progressive politicians have inflicted on their core constituencies during the COVID-19 era. Progressive teacher unions managed to keep schools in progressive areas closed for two years, with mask mandates remaining in force, so many parents sought alternatives. Public school enrollment is down, while Catholic school enrollment is up and homeschooling and demand for charter schools are rising.
Meanwhile, violent crime rates have skyrocketed since the George Floyd riots of June 2020, and there are signs that voters even in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco are recoiling. These four big metropolitan areas went for President Joe Biden by nearly 8 million voters, while former President Donald Trump carried the other five-sixths of the country by just under 1 million. Eighteen months later, it looks like that balance is changing.
They should be turned around at the city border and sent right back so as to NOT foul another’s nest. Let them lay down in their own bed and stay there.
Unfortunately, they are fleeing by the thousands to Texas, particularly the Austin area. Can’t reveal how I know, I’ll get in trouble at work. And, they ARE bringing their belief systems and attitudes with them. It will permanently change the face of Texas and already has in the large metropolitan areas.
I think that the majority of people leaving liberal areas are conservatives who just cant stand it anymore. There are fewer liberals and they tend to congregate in liberal areas of the states.
The cities will never recover. The civic core is rotting
Between the Black political cancer and the tent dwellers that occupy great swaths of public lands, cities are out of control. When only the black population and tent dwellers remain, cities will wither on the vine.
There are lots of videos where the presenter drives the city streets. what is revealed is block after block of vacant and closed shops on what were thriving city streets. Workers and jobs are just gone.
I don’t know if it’s the majority, but I do know that from my associates fleeing Killinois, they are all conservatives and they are leaving. Some whose families had been here since the late 19th century. Sad but understandable.
For me, it is not the crime and the taxes that bother me - I’ve lived in São Paulo Brazil which makes New York seem like Singapore in terms of crime and like Monaco in terms of taxes. It was the contagion of fear and heavy handedness by both the politicians and the citizenry in their overreaction to WuFlu that has soured me on the area for the first time in my 46 years. As of today, the majority of people in NYC voluntarily mask up (usually with the worthless cheap face diapers that do nothing to prevent contagion) and the disproportionately immigrant owner small businesses still have signs up requiring that you wear them (I don’t). Face diapers are still required for theater and the subway, but not sporting events. All of this (and the lack of commuters and tourists) has taken much of the fun out of the city and surrounding towns and I find it very difficult to live where all my neighbors (especially in the majority East Asian high rise I live in) wear masks everywhere and support the “COVID forever” mentality that seems will never end around here. It’s very depressing and Arizona looks better everyday.
This is news?
It’s been happening since at least the 1950s when the first mass exodus to these newfangled things called “suburbs” began. The good people fled, entire cities were consumed by the ghetto areas, and the major cities have been under corrupt, one-party Democrat rule ever since (in case anyone was wondering why the cities have never recovered, and never will).
Some cities survived longer than others, but even urban areas which were *not* total shitholes as recently as a couple of decades ago (e.g. Columbus, Ohio), are horrible places now and getting worse by the day.
The only newsworthy development since the 1960s is the degradation of suburbs which lie unfortunately close to city limits, and even areas farther away are flipping to the dark side now, which forces the good people to flee to even more remote areas.
Look at the Atlanta metro area (among dozens and dozens of other examples) for a good illustration of this. Some counties near Atlanta (like DeKalb) had only a tiny window where they became good, before becoming ridiculously awful places to live — even worse than Atlanta in many places. Other counties like Cobb & Gwinnett hung in there for years but have flipped now and won’t be flipping back anytime soon, if ever. The good people of metro Atlanta now live in places which, in the olden days, would have been at least an hours’ drive from the city.
I can tell you the the majority of folks who have fled NY and NJ and have moved to Palm Beach County Florida are not conservative - they are “socially liberal” and/or ethnic Dems who like the lack of taxes and warmer weather but wouldn’t be caught dead voting GOP.
they’re running from the disastrous mess they made by voting for the Media-Dem Party. Unfortunately, they’ll just go someplace else and do the exact same thing. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
The population losses in the cities of 1-3% do not tell the whole story. What is also happening is that many businesses shut down in the downtown areas and won’t be coming back. Many other businesses have shifted to partial or total remote working and haven’t reversed that even with the reopenings. Other businesses that relied on heavy downtown traffic, like restaurants and shopping, have been affected by this change and are closing or downscaling their downtown operations. New construction in downtown areas is not going to pick back up once current projects that are underway are finished. Commercial rents will certainly collapse as well.
When you ride the train downtown during the morning or afternoon commute in one of these cities, you will see that trains which were absolutely packed to capacity during the Trump years are now at about 30% of that capacity. That’s the real impact of the lockdowns and riots... that about 2/3s of the economic activity that was concentrated in the urban centers has either left or been dispersed and is not likely to return any time soon.
Damn parasites fleeing a host they killed. Should wall in those leftist hellholes and let the pigs wallow in them.
Perfect time to send in MS-13.
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