Posted on 04/28/2022 12:48:09 PM PDT by pierrem15
Russia's military setbacks in Ukraine pose a new set of security challenges in Europe and beyond.
When Russian forces began to roll towards the Ukrainian border on the evening of Defender of the Fatherland Day, 23 February, Moscow was anticipating the capture of Kyiv within three days. Many outside observers – including the authors of this report – feared the destruction of the conventional Ukrainian military, even if they expected the fighting to last longer than Moscow had hoped. Moscow’s plan was for repressive measures to have stabilised control of Ukraine by Victory Day on 9 May. Instead, the Russian military was repulsed, suffering heavy losses, and is now embarking upon a limited offensive to try to secure Donetsk and Luhansk.
The war in Ukraine has generated a considerable volume of highly detailed analysis relating to the military progress of the campaign, the struggle for information, the cascading economic effects of high energy prices and supply chain disruption, and the geopolitical fallout as countries are increasingly called upon to pick a side. However, despite an emphasis in Western security concepts on the need for a whole-of-government approach, much of the analysis on the war in Ukraine has focused on narrow silos. This Special Report seeks to examine how the interconnected challenges confronting Moscow are reshaping Russian policy, and the risks Moscow’s potential courses of action pose as the war enters a new phase. The foremost conclusion is that Russia is now preparing, diplomatically, militarily and economically, for a protracted conflict.
(Excerpt) Read more at rusi.org ...
His economy is smaller than Canada and is dependent on oil that seems to be in trouble. You seem to equate the USSR with Russia. Not the same at all. Russia barely exceeds the economy of Australia that has only a fraction of the people Russia has
Vlad can’t challenge the combined Euro and American sanctions and must just suffer the ever increasing squeeze.
I agree, he's holding a bad hand.... a crappy demographic, economic and geographic hand.
But you and I see him differently. You see him at the casino holding sh#t and bluffing against a flush draw or two pair.... he's either bluffing by going all in and everyone at the table will "tsk-tsk".. "sorry man, you suck and good bye".... as he slinks out of the chair and into the back room after losing.
I don't see him in a nice regulated and secure casino.... I see him in the back room of an open game downtown. He owes the house and everyone there is going to f##k him up if he leaves without paying or acts like a b#tch.... so before he shows his cards, he pulls out a gun and starts killing everyone at the table and in the room till he leaves or dies.
That's how I see him.
Everyone here seems to think Putin will get "voted" our or "assassinated". Well I can guarantee you, there will NEVER be a vote taken that he allows himself to be beaten.
As for assassination... well he is an apex predator that killed and maneuvered his way all the way from a little nothing desk to head of Russia. This is just me, but I think that if you fart the wrong way, don't smile the right way, don't clap with enough vigor, appear smarter than Putin, appear braver than Putin..... you're dead. Period, he will never allow another "threat" to crawl next to him.
If someone does manage to kill him.... think of the type of person that was clever and violent enough to do that...... that's who will be left. I pray it isn't a military guy and we may be lucky that a KGB bureaucrat will slither in.... either way, this isn't going to be tidy and we will be lucky if American blood isn't spilled.... very lucky.
Ok.
Your point?
It’s just war news.
Ok. I thought the target was something I was supposed to recognize.
Moldova is looking to retake Transisnia (I know I spelled that wrong) and that will bring Romania into the fray.
Poland is mobilizing, and having exercises in the east.
China, India, some South American countries, and parts of Africa.
Saudi and Israel are currently on the fence, but make signals they are going to dump us (Russia cleaned up Syria, we did not). Which brings the rest of the Middle East to Russia’s side sans Iran, who is looking like the odd man out.
I was reading somewhere that Moldova used to be part of Romania. Don’t know if that’s accurate or not.
Most of the Ukrainian POWs in the last few days have been conscripts from the villages outside Kiev. So it’s not just Russia who has been forced into doing that, FFS.
20K dead is a bit high. Remember our KIA estimates for enemy forces from the Plains wars to Vietnam?
But also remember tsar Putty needs to wind this fight, or he and everyone he cares about is dead. He is not a political leader in our sense of the word, he is a tsar. Any sign of weakness and he will die.
So far there has been ONE strategic bomber sent up. One. If this was us invading say, Mexico the flights of old school B52 would be breaking windows all down the central US.
Putin has one last card to play, or rather three. Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical weapons. Domestically he is already telling his population that they are fighting US and UK led forces in Ukraine, so lobbing a nuke to a NATO country is not that far off.
Which means his country dies.
There are reports from Moldova that 2 brigades of the UA are lined up on its border. It looks like Ukraine will be invading Moldova instead, lol. Will you still support Ukraine if it “ignores another country’s sovereignty.” 😂
Just look at the devastation and loss of life in Donetsk, Lugansk, and Mariupol from ‘benefactor’ Russia. What group of Russian emigres would ever want “Russia’s protection” from now on? They know it is just a callous land grab by Russia and they are the pawns.
The report does not show what the full disasterous consequences of this war will be for the west.
It may happen during the second axt,which is in September: the Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Russia will methodically turn UK into a syrianized morqass.
My understanding is that Stingers have been quietly but continuously updated to the point where they are not the same today as in 1980.
Easy to suppose Ukraine will not get our latest & greatest, but very likely better than those of 40 years ago.
You don’t think there have been 20k casualties? Or are you confusing a casualty with a KIA? Because I never said that.
Read the profile of the two soy boys who wrote this….
Here’s an interesting part:
You are correct — it is actually the most interesting part.
Here is another:
Although Russian weapons are full of Western manufactured components, it is not clear that the companies manufacturing them knew that the Russian military was the end-user. Many components are dual-use technologies. Meanwhile, Russia has established mechanisms for laundering these items through third countries.
Now that undeniable facts, videos, and satellite images are surfacing about the horrendous human atrocities the Russians are committing, I’m thinking that less and less third countries are willing to supply these Western manufactured components to the Russians. And this is why they’re using less of their precious precision guided missiles — they fear that soon they will not be able to replace them.
The hubris of the Russian army to think they can just murder an entire innocent population from the face of the earth and keep it hidden in these days of cameras in every hand — they are under Putin’s spell and actually think they are cleansing the world. This will be their downfall. Soon, all countries — even China and India — will have to turn against Russia and refuse them the materials they need to keep their war machine going.
BFL
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