Posted on 04/27/2022 8:37:02 PM PDT by Cronos
Poland has been preparing to give up Russian gas fuel for a long time, so Gazprom's decision to turn off the tap did not surprise her. Rather, the inevitable has accelerated. Poland's energy security should not be jeopardized, but the gas turmoil may again have an impact on Poles' bills in a few months. The former president of PGNiG draws attention to one important element of the entire gas puzzle.
On Wednesday at 8.00, Gazprom will officially suspend gas supplies to Poland under the Yamal contract . The day before, journalists reported that gas fuel transmission from the east fell to zero. The Ministry of Climate and Environment called an unannounced press conference on Tuesday evening, during which the head of the ministry, Anna Moskwa and Piotr Naimski, assured that Poland was ready to cut off gas supplies via Russia.
We are ready for full independence from Russian raw materials, Minister Anna Moskwa emphasized during the conference.
The Russian company informed PGNiG that the suspension of supplies would take place in accordance with the provisions of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 31, 2022, due to the Polish side rejecting the possibility of making payments in rubles.
According to media reports, Gazprom is also to cut off Bulgaria from its gas from Wednesday. The company's decision may be perversely defined as the imposition of sanctions by the Russian Federation on itself
According to the calculations of the Polish Economic Institute , Russia's revenues from customs and taxes related to natural gas extraction in the first two months of 2022 were the highest in at least four years and amounted to over EUR 5.4 billion. Just as Europe is dependent on gas from Russia, so is Russia dependent on billions of euros from the European Union
Gazprom has accelerated the inevitable
Gazprom's decision only accelerated what was to happen anyway at the end of this year. Poland did not intend to extend the contract with Gazprom for the supply of Russian fuel. Therefore, Polish gas storage facilities are already full in April at an unprecedented level for this month - 76 percent. In other European countries, gas tanks are filled to about 30 percent. Therefore, such a move in relation to other EU countries would be much more dangerous from the point of view of energy security.
Energy expert and journalist Jakub Wiech believes that Poland is able to cope without gas supplies under the Yamal contract. Especially since there have been cases where Gazprom "turned off the gas tap" before, and not in such a distant past.
We are ready to suspend gas supplies from Russia. We have our own gas extraction capabilities, we have the possibility of receiving LNG through the terminal in Świnoujście, we have interconnectors and almost full warehouses. Gazprom has already suspended gas supplies to Poland in the past. Such situations took place, for example, during the NATO summit in Poland and the visit of Donald Trump, but they were short-lived. However, now, judging by the letter sent by Gazprom, you have to take into account a longer break - says money.pl Jakub Wiech.
The stored gas fuel gives Poland the time needed to complete investments such as the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline , which will be delivered to the Vistula with gas from Norway. From May, the possibility of deliveries through the gas pipeline connecting Poland and Lithuania, to which gas is delivered via a floating LNG terminal, will start.
Additionally, Poland can buy gas in reverse from Germany and obtain it on European markets. Of course, it is not certain that gas supplies from Russia in the coming months will not be realized again until the end of the contract, which expires at the end of the year. Piotr Naimski, the government plenipotentiary for strategic energy infrastructure, emphasized during the conference that all Polish gas needs can be met from other
" Perhaps this is the end of gas supplies to Poland from Gazprom. If the attitude of the Russians does not change, i.e. if their demands for payment in rubles do not cease, and if there are no extraordinary circumstances on the Polish side, April 26, 2022 may go down in history as the end of the Yamal contracts, concludes Jakub Wiech. "
Former president of PGNiG, Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa, is of the opinion that we will have enough gas supplies until at least summer, of course if Poland only uses this source. Although, as Anna Moscow announced during the conference, there are no such plans at the moment.
- It all depends on how long it will take. Official data show that the warehouses, with a capacity of 2.85 billion cubic meters, are approximately 80 percent full. - points out the interlocutor of money.pl.
If it is not possible to obtain gas from other sources, these reserves should last for about two months. Out of four if we diversified our consumption with other sources, such as a gas terminal. Half of the gas supplied to the Polish market is Russian gas purchased under the Yamal contract, says Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa
However, there is a danger. It is still uncertain how many other countries Russia will cut off gas in the near future. It is not only Poland that has decided not to pay for gas in rubles. More recently , the European Commission stressed that such payments will be a collapse of sanctions .
If the Kremlin cut off half of Europe from its gas, the demand for the raw material purchased on the stock exchange would increase. In a situation of strong demand, prices may soar. We saw a similar situation last year, when gas prices - due to Moscow's policy - increased significantly.
It is a fact that gas fuel prices react quickly to this changing situation. It was already visible on Tuesday, when information on the potential cut-off of Poland from supplies affected the prices on the Dutch stock exchange.
The problem is completely different. We will use gas purchased on an ongoing basis. In a situation where gas is turned off not only in Poland, the prices of gas available on exchanges will immediately increase. Unlike oil, you cannot increase your daily output quickly. It does not work like that. The warehouses are there to be filled in summer, when gas is cheaper, and to be able to use them in winter, in the season of the highest demand, sums up Grażyna Piotrowska-Oliwa.
In the case of individual customers in Poland, high gas purchase prices are buffered by tariffs regulated by the President of the ERO. However, gas prices for entrepreneurs and industry were freed up a few years ago. Therefore, in their case, high gas prices on commodity exchanges are basically one-to-one.
In the fall and winter, gas prices for entrepreneurs rose by several hundred percent in some cases. The situation may repeat itself this year. The more so as we are ready to be cut off from Russian gas, but just like our warehouses - not 100 percent.
Piotr Naimski said during the conference that "perturbations" on the gas market may last about two years.
- This market will stabilize when European customers will be able to deliver to Europe from outside Russia the amounts of gas that are currently sent by Russia. It is a matter of using fully gas terminals in Western Europe, adding certain elements of gas pipelines so that all of this could reach the recipients and it will take some time, probably around two years - said Naimski
Buwayas post was about Russia, the state, not the Russian people.
Russia as a state has failed its people since the late 1800s.
Nicky set up the Duma after the disastrous 1905 Russo Japanese war. Btw, the logistical and strategic failures then are exactly the ones repeated now in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Then, in 1908, nicky felt strong enough to suspend the Duma.
Russia in the 1990s was opening up, but then Putin came.
Instead of encouraging the brainpower of his people and their industriousness, Putin exploited them.
He did the same as Chavez did, but to a potentially greater people.
Putin failed Russia
[You have to admire Putin’s brilliant sense of planning
Let’s attack with nice heavy tanks during spring thaw along back roads which can be blocked.
Or blown up.
Forcing them to get stuck in the mud.]
My gut says Germany will approve Nord 2...and pay in roubles
I have hired Russians. Russians, as individuals, aren’t the problem. A Russian society is quite another matter - as, for instance, is an Arab society. These places, these societies, are unreformable, even if they are drenched in money.
They will underperform in every way, due to the social dynamics of their people. This is why none of these places produces much that anyone else would want other than commodities.
Russia might have had a chance, once, back in 1914, but way too much has happened since. They were shattered, and that moment cannot be recreated. As for the Arabs, that moment passed over a thousand years ago.
Gazprom is getting squeezed by Putin
Nonsense. Your own country is kept afloat by EU. Have you forgotten 2012. Look at your own backyard before saying other countries suck. They may suck, but it’s not the place of someone who lives in an EU ghetto to say it
Russia can have their hissy fit and cause some pain to Poland and Bulgaria, but in the long term, they have hurt themselves by not being a supplier that anyone can trust.
Soros and Schwab hate all this chaos
Germany was trying to draw Russia into a tight, mutually beneficial economic relationship.
Poland told them they were nuts.
The gradual outcome, a peaceful continent full of good neighbors and very few weapons stretching from Lisbon to Moscow was the pipedream (pipe... ironic)
This was reasonable, sensible and it should have worked. Even a perennially lousy neighbor like Putinland would surely see the growing benefits of collaboration and integration.
The alternative was to respond to Putin’s paranoia and threatening noises by collapsing all the mutually beneficial trading links and arming ourselves to the teeth.
Putin has tossed decades of integration and peaceful co-existence on the trash heap.
Soros would have preferred Ukraine to collapse in 5 days.
Putin was the wild card. So it was not to be.
Did you read what he said about Russian society? How individual Russians succeed DESPITE the culture, just as Arabs.
Spain is not like that, thanks to franco and then opening up from the 80s.
Split up Russia.
I dont actually live in Spain on a permanent basis. I have lived in the US for forty years, and am actually from the Philippines. So you could say I am an international man of mystery.
In any case, EU aid to Spain is trivial in terms of its GDP. It could go away tomorrow with little real impact. The economic value of the EU connection is much more a question of markets, private investment and business confidence. Spain got into the “first world” through its own efforts as a consequence of its economic miracle of the 1950s-70s, pre-EU. One of many economic miracles of the time of course. Consider Spain a very pretty sort of Korea.
Come to Spain, you will like it.
Things will be going just swimmingly for Poland, Germany, and those other countries by next Winter with no heat and no plan.
Can’t even produce enough here to sustain ourselves, let alone Poland.
If Trump was still in his office, I’d agree with you.
("In the background on the wall there is a reproduction of the painting 'Cossacks write a letter to the Sultan' by Repnin. Knowing the Russians, this is no coincidence.") (Russia sending a message)
Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks
Copy. Not the original.
Something about attempting the same failed concept over and aver...
“...in 2006 and 2009, when the Ukrainian government adopted more pro-Western policies and upset the Kremlin, Russia outright shut off the country’s gas supply [while still freezing] – and by extension, shut off the gas of countries down the supply line in Central and Western Europe, including Germany.”
March 31, 2022 — Putin vows to cut gas supply tomorrow unless Europe pays in roubles
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/31/ftse-100-markets-live-news-russian-gas-green-energy/
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