Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep
Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November.
Key findings:
Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process.
So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats.
After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.
Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.
If so, it will be a huge shock for all.
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
How does Silver factor in the vote fraud to his statistical analysis? 30+ House Dems retiring. Does he assume they keep all 30 seats?
Babylon Bee??
Its also about individual candidates. Especially in the Senate. Example: Georgia. Should be strong odds for a pickup. But with the candidate being Herschel Walker... doubtful. He’s got too much baggage and just isn’t a good candidate.
GOP still has to move way to the right to offer true alternatives.
If they run on “Biden stupid, Biden bad” they are going to lose.
It is not a prediction. It is a cover story for the vote fraud that will keep the Democrats in power.
2020 put a bright light on just how elections are handled. Will the Democrats try and cheat in 2022, of course, but it will not be a free ride like in 2020.
If the Democrats were all powerful tell me how any Republican ever win an election?
One hundred percent correct: Silver projected Hillary Clinton the victor in 2016. He has no credibility.
“I think he’s right, unfortunately. People here are convinced that we’ll get the majority, nothing to worry about, blah, blah…”
You are right and a few some of us here were raising the demonikraps’ gerrymandering efforts. They did not just focus on GOP states with court challenges (see NC) and win, but further solidified their own demonikrap states (see CA) - like gerrymandering the “token GOP” rep or two right out of their own seats to perhaps take all the seats available.
You think the GOP chances are slim, and I think they are slimmer than slim. And if the GOP does squeak in, don’t look for them to do anything but cave in to the executive branch and the media, ruining their chances to expand further in 2024. GOP is a fractured, leaderless party, many who are detached from the party’s real base vote and act like deminkraps. Sorry i could not be more optimisic today.
So what’s your opinion for the House, Jim Noble?
Who will prevail, the MAGA wing or the RINO wing in 2022?
And what it the D/R margin in the House you predict?
And I suppose it would be nice to hear your prediction if voter fraud will tip the scales.
Nate Silver gives another once upon a time story bookie chuckles.
Rush said Democrats would never nominate Biden for president. I tried calling his show a couple times to say, 'Not only will Biden be the Democrat's nominee, he has a good chance of winning'. I post it here and I was ridiculed.
When Biden became the candidate, people here did little but mock Biden. Again I said, 'You can mock Biden all you want but it won't matter. Democrats vote for the candidate they are given and they will vote for Biden'.
Anyone who doesn't take their opposition as a serious threat is a fool even if their opposition is a fool because fools have the right to vote.
Having read this, he’s just saying Democrats will gain a few seats where maps have been changed, not that they will keep the House. Republicans could pickup non gerrymandered seats in other places to overturn those Dem wins in states like New York.
Laying the groundwork to explain the cheating later...Hey Nate called it!
I wonder if Nate realizes that just targeting a black neighborhood does not mean they will mostly vote for the Dim, as it used to be.
Plus there are more moving to Pubbies from the Left.
Plus more Whites are coming over.
Nate, don’t forget the 2020 election ...THAT will not happen again, so stay awake and don’t count on anything from the past.
Unless the right begins to violently defend honesty and accuracy at the polls, Silver is going to be right. The Democrats have so much corruption that isn’t going to be punished there is no way the Republicans can win unless there is a violent revolution against them and those that are blatantly breaking the law. We are finished because we don’t have the guts to go after the criminals.
Even our state legislatures are bought off at this point.
This analysis is based solely on the effects of redistricting. Doesn’t discuss the shift in voting preference. Sounds like the Dems are indeed going to gain a few seats from redistricting. But they are probably still going to lose 40 seats because of overal shift in voter preference to GOP.
Nate Plastic has spoken...
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