Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep
Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November.
Key findings:
Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process.
So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats.
After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.
Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.
If so, it will be a huge shock for all.
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
They would do it in a heartbeat if they could pin the blame on Trump.
The lack of election integrity may ruin the Republic. Demon Rats hate honest elections.
In the House the effects of redistricting alone are going to net the Rats less than 5 seats. IF the big wave some are relying on actually happens, Republicans will gain enough to make Kevin McCarthy the new Speaker. I think I feel my leg tingling (not).
There's no reason to talk about "435 races" since AT MOST 100 of those (more like 60-70) are the least bit competitive. Of the competitive races this year, Democrats have more seats to defend, but also more money to defend them with and total support of the media controllers.
It the "wave" breaks really hard, we may see GOP +30 or so. If it doesn't, more like +5 to +10. If 2020-level vote fraud occurs the bottom will fall out entirely though it is harder (for now) for the Democrats to fraud up individual House districts than it is to focus their fraud on some ghetto and suburban precincts to sway a statewide election.
Not that predictions in April are worth a damn thing anyway.
Looks like a Dem click bait headline.
(1) Covid-19 has killed more elderly white Republicans than Democrats.
False. Covid-19 has hit Hispanics and elderly black Democrats far harder. It sucks terribly to be working-class or poor elderly in Democrat states, where they put all the super-spreaders with the elderly population.
(2) About 750,000 new foreign born voters are naturalized each year. They will vote 60%-70% Democrat.
Don’t worry about the legal immigrants; worry about the illegal immigrants.
(3) About 4 million new 18 year old voters each year. They are close to 50-50 white-non-white. A majority of those new voters will vote Democrat.
Every generation starts off extremely Democrat. They move to the right as they age. This generation is doing so quickly.
(4) Many states have automatic mail-out ballots now. The GOP has done nothing consequential to prevent voter fraud. High turn out - even completely honest turn out - will favor the Democrats.
No. Most states which did so in 2020 did so in response to court orders and temporary states of emergency. Only California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington will have all-mail elections. Outside of California, there are only five competitive races in those states.
Bottom Line - there are more Democrats than Republicans in the USA. The GOP will make small gains with non-white voters. We will win very small majorities in the House and Senate.
Yeah, right. 2022 is going to be like 1998 or 2002 when the party holding the presidency gained seats.
No way. The electorate is too fluid and 30+ Democrat incumbents would not be retiring if they expected to hold their majority.
Redistricting never works out as planned. Add inflation, gas prices, particular candidates, and any number of other factors to the mix. I don’t see the Democrats being able to hold their slim majority under any circumstances (other than outright fraud, but that only works in the cities).
I know this guy has been credible in predicting previous election outcomes, so I would certainly not discount anything he says.
Plus our side is super overconfident at this point, and of course has done nothing to prohibit any of the cheating that occurred at the last election.
As I’ve followed re-districting, it’s probably true that Rs typically played nice-guy and failed to go for jugular when re-drawing congressional boundaries.
However, even swing states that Trump lost (to fraud) elected Rs to state houses and were generally in control of gerrymandering.
I’d call it an OK boost in terms of congressional seats, whereas it shoulda/coulda been a blowout. Biden will finish the job, making Ds irrelevant for a decade or more. All this after Obama lost over 700 iirc local state and national D office holders, so Rs were in a pretty good start position.
RIDICULOUS!
Well, Trump has endorsed a lot of people who WILL win their primaries against any RINOs, so factor that in.
Exactly
If this comes to pass it will be the signal to commence a sail away because
The US would be game over.
NATE SILVER’S PREDICTIONS WERE TOTALLY WRONG, AND PEOPLE ARE UPSET
Nate is a joke....
Just a left wing pundit who pretends his stands are based on math.
I found a recent blurb that said only 17 seats in the House were decided by less than 5% in 2020.
More stolen elections, silencing of any voices who oppose except a few approved conservatives to give the appearance of opposition, AI bots writing headlines and social media posts saying “times are great”.
Another bulletproof prediction by Nate Silver!
They are not stupid. They’ve just been very good at lying and deceiving us for a long time.
“ Something is up here. The rats are not changing course or even moderating despite tanking in the polls.”
Good observation. Just like Biden never left the basement to campaign in 2020 and still ‘won’ handily.
It is not a prediction. It is a cover story for the vote fraud that will keep the Democrats in power.
It worked in 2020. They believe it will work again in 2022.
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