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Nate Silver Redistricting Analysis: Democrats poised to INCREASE their House majority in November
Fivethirtyeight ^ | April 13, 2022 | Fivethirtyeight Elections Analysis by Nate Silver

Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep

Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November.

Key findings:

Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process.

So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats.

After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.

Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.

If so, it will be a huge shock for all.

(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 2022election; 2024election; election2022; election2024; lyingtroll; moronwhocantread; natesilver; redistricting
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To: nwrep

I think people need to understand that gerry mandering can absolutely allow 25-30% of the people in the country to elect more than 50% of the representatives.

It is just a math problem.


21 posted on 04/13/2022 8:24:30 AM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks, and have the will to use them.)
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To: nwrep
I've already conceded D+1 in the Senate.

The House is a lot harder, you have to be a bit of a politics nerd to really do it right.

But I did predict D+40 for 2018, took a lot of abuse and suggestions for meds for my psychosis around here - and I was exactly right.

The GOP backers are getting high off of polls. And if the GOP were going to run on a pure MAGA platform and contest all 435 races, then, yes, they would crush it.

But what they want to do, and probably are going to do is run 435 candidates who they believe can sell the Bush shit sandwich as a nutritious meal for America - and if they do that, I can easily see D+15.

You can't beat something with nothing.

22 posted on 04/13/2022 8:24:37 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Love's redeeming work is done)
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To: nwrep

If Americans don’t sweep the left out of power completely this November, we are truly lost as a country.

I can’t imagine this will happen, but we seem to shoot ourselves in the foot more often than not...


23 posted on 04/13/2022 8:25:16 AM PDT by Magnatron
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To: nwrep

Just because Nate Silver doesn’t know how to interpret polls, doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t know about re-districting.

The general tendency is for Rs to gain from re-apportionment and Ds to gain from re-districting. So, by focusing on the latter, to the exclusion of the former, you are slanting your analysis.

Then, Silver’s metric is very informative. A district might be Plus 3 Democrat in Presidential elections, and Plus 2 Republican is Congressional elections. Congressional candidates have some leeway in presenting themselves to voters.

Finally, drawing districts that lean Democrat might be stupid in a Republican Wave year. If you get greedy, you might lose big. Remember the old saying, thin pigs get fed. Fat pigs get slaughtered. Don’t be greedy!


24 posted on 04/13/2022 8:25:33 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: nwrep

bite me Nate


25 posted on 04/13/2022 8:26:30 AM PDT by mylife (It looks just like a telefunken U47... (===)
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To: nwrep

How do we catch and prove ballot mules were used, if they leave their cell phones at home this time?


26 posted on 04/13/2022 8:26:58 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: nwrep

Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.


And he gets paid real money for this type of prediction?

In America you have two extremes, hard core left and hard core right with the majority in the middle.

It is the majority in the middle that decide elections.

The Democrats, the party in power have not had a good two years and the current year leading up to 2022 is not going to get better for them.

They took President Trump’s booming economy, one that had us energy independent, full employment, no wars, secure southern border and destroyed it all.

Even if the Democrats and media want to blame President Trump the American voters always punish the party in power.

The Democrats are not going to keep control of the house or the senate.


27 posted on 04/13/2022 8:28:06 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN (I am not an expert in anything, and my opinion is just that, an opinion. I may be wrong.)
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To: nwrep

I want some of what he’s smoking.


28 posted on 04/13/2022 8:28:56 AM PDT by Gaffer
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What can you expect from a party that’s being led by Joe the Clown


29 posted on 04/13/2022 8:30:06 AM PDT by GeraldOz
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To: Antoninus

He predicted Obama correctly because he wanted him to win. He said Trump would lose because he wanted him to lose.


30 posted on 04/13/2022 8:30:15 AM PDT by CaptainK ("If life's really hard, at least its short")
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To: Roadrunner383

Agreed. It’s a very curious article. Redistricitng has always been part of the calculus but the flipping of seats in purple, even a few blue, districts is where the action is going to be


31 posted on 04/13/2022 8:30:17 AM PDT by j.havenfarm (21 years on Free Republic, 12/10/21! More than 5000 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: nwrep

It really wouldn’t surprise me any if the GOP elite engineered election defeat across the country.


32 posted on 04/13/2022 8:30:50 AM PDT by euram
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To: skeeter
I’m no longer convinced ‘stupid’ explains it.

The GOP does not want to govern. It exists merely as kabuki opposition, the performers paid handsomely.

33 posted on 04/13/2022 8:31:10 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (They intend to murder us. Prep if you want to live and live like you are prepping for eternal life)
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To: nwrep

Silver is a hard partisan rat. His claim to fame was being the most accurate calling OBOZO’S numbers but afterwards it was revealed he was nothing but a cheat, getting insider campaign numbers.


34 posted on 04/13/2022 8:31:24 AM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: nwrep

Uptick in Covid, absentee vote mules put on notice.


35 posted on 04/13/2022 8:31:30 AM PDT by LumberJack53213
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To: Gaffer

After the fraud of 2020, I believe this analysis is correct. The 2000 Mules will be out stuffing boxes again, or the machines will be flipping votes.


36 posted on 04/13/2022 8:31:45 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: nwrep

GOP will win 60-80 House seats. The Republicans are ahead in the House generic poll and even, historically, when they’ve been down a few points, they take control of the House.


37 posted on 04/13/2022 8:32:09 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Fido969

Call them what they are, Assistant Democrats.


38 posted on 04/13/2022 8:32:19 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin ( (Natural born citizens are born here of citizen parents)(Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: nwrep

Ohio has recently passed a state constitutional amendment which outlaws jerrymandering. In addition to losing one House seat, the districts are supposed to be redrawn so we can no longer Doo things like connecting Toledo to Cleveland by a narrow strip along Lake Erie to concentrate the Democrats in a few districts leaving the rest with Republican majorities. So instead of 12-4 we’ll likely end up 8-7 or 9-6. Four redistricting maps have been rejected by the state supreme court and the primary election will be delayed.


39 posted on 04/13/2022 8:33:16 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (If Hitler invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference of the Devil...-Churchill)
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To: nwrep

Something is up here. The rats are not changing course or even moderating despite tanking in the polls.


40 posted on 04/13/2022 8:33:20 AM PDT by gibsonguy
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