Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep
Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November.
Key findings:
Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process.
So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats.
After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.
Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.
If so, it will be a huge shock for all.
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Just a second - where in this link does he predict Democrats will gain seats in the election? That appears absolutely nowhere. He just says the Democrats gained more districts that are more favorable to them in redistricting. There is no prediction they are going to gain seats in the election.
Note that this link does not have the information that is stated in the thread post. It is just an analysis of how the Democrats did in redistricting in believing they did better in gaining more favorable districts - not how the election itself is going to go.
You really are stupid.
Silver isn’t talking about house outcomes. He isn’t predicting the Democrats will win.
He’s talking about the median seat versus the national popular vote.
And that was before the new 20 Trump seat Florida map.
This OP was a clown who couldn’t process the data and a bunch of eeyores who were also too dumb to read.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0f7545a4-2b49-4900-906b-22ad6f431b25
DeSantis just obliterated the “dem redistricting gain” meme.
Pretty telling that you disappear for over a year, then show up to post propaganda that you don’t even understand.
Did you process that donation to FR in my name yet?
Reason to be suspicious. It depends on how big of a factor mail in ballots and redistricting. All they have to do is to affect 20-30 close races and that's the election right there.
You already lost one bet.
Let’s bet on your insane “prediction” here.
Let’s make it a loser leaves town bet.
Silver isn’t even saying that.
This analysis was solely about redistricting versus the national average.
The OP was too stupid to:
1: not understand that Silver was saying a max of four seats compared to the 2010 maps (which have a GOP bias.
2: not take into account the map DeSantis just powered through in Florida.
3: have nothing to do with a prediction on the outcome of the elections.
Wrong - the math is obvious. 80% of Covid deaths are over age 65. That is the Baby Boom generation, which, at that age, is at least 90% white. You have been deceived by statements that the RATE of Black and Hispanic deaths is 2X or 3X higher than white deaths. You forgot that white people are 10X more numerous at that age than Blacks and Hispanics.
dangus: Don't worry about the legal immigrants; worry about the illegal immigrants.
I should not worry about a block of 20 million imported LEGAL voters who heavily support the Democratic Party? That is absurd.
dangus: Every generation starts off extremely Democrat.
Completely false. White young people consistently vote 50%-55% Republican. We lose another 5% of young white voters to the Libertarian Party. Most of the white Libertarians drift back to the mainstream GOP by age 35.
The non-white 18 year olds - about 50% of the total - will vote 70%-80% Democrat.
dangus: Only California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington will have all-mail elections.
I did not say all-mail elections.
Almost every state now allows voters to effortlessly request and receive their ballot by mail, and at least a half dozen states now allow voting with online ballots.
Since the GOP has done nothing consequential in the last 62 years to stop voter fraud, that will be a serious problem.
>> That is the Baby Boom generation, which, at that age, is at least 90% white. <<
85%. As opposed to 72%. But you’re arguing that ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, you’d expect more white people to die of Covid. All other things aren’t always equal, so you have to use REAL data, not statistical presumption. Black people make up 23% of Covid deaths, far higher than their share of the U.S. population.
>> I should not worry about a block of 20 million imported LEGAL voters who heavily support the Democratic Party? <<
Legal voters speak English, are decently educated, and assimilate. There are 1,000 reasons why legal immigration is a problem, but the Democrat hopes that they could replace Republicans with Democrats isn’t working.
>>>> dangus: Every generation starts off extremely Democrat. <<<<
>> Completely false. <<
In 1980, Jimmy Carter easily won the under-30 vote. Yes, it was of white people. Still voted heavily Democrat. Today, those voters are HUGELY Republican, but in 1980, they were liberal Democrats.
>> Almost every state now allows voters to effortlessly request and receive their ballot by mail, <<
No, only nine states, plus D.C. will allow this “ballot harvesting” in 2022. Whether they can return them by mail, or they use drop boxes, this is what I meant by “all-mail” elections.
Perhaps this country is already lost? You can’t count on the GOPe to save it.
Look for your name on the donor wall
Comparing the partisan ratings for 2022 from fivethirtyeight.com against Charlie Cook’s ratings from 2020, it looks like the GOP was “favored” in 224 districts in 2020 and now will be favored in 219 (and that includes the new Florida map and assumes Missouri and New Hampshire stay the same in 2022 as they were in 2020).
In both year there are a few districts (3 or 4) rated as “even” which are not included in the GOP totals.
Right. That’s why this OP was so insanely stupid. It had nothing to do with the “Democrats increasing their majorities.”
Counting how much a district favors a particular party can be difficult and varies depending on the metric used.
The 224 on the 2010 maps sounds right without counting districts as “swing.”
Another count that I saw was 205 favorable GOP seats. 192 favorable to Democrat seats and 38 “swing seats.”
I think the GOP has a lower floor and the Democrats have a higher ceiling.
It will be tough for either party to get above 245 on the new maps throughout the decade given the lower number of swing seats.
The particular poster in the OP had been a long time concern troll before he disappeared.
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