Posted on 04/13/2022 12:34:44 AM PDT by Zhang Fei
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has warned that Europe is about to witness the biggest tank battle on the continent since World War II.
In a speech during a press conference with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo on Monday, Morawiecki said a tank battle in Ukraine is "imminent," as reported by Bloomberg.
Morawiecki then called for EU member states to offer more military support to Kyiv, as international observers expect Russia to launch an attack in the eastern region of Donbas soon.
"The most decisive battle is about to begin, and at the same time the largest tank battle in this part of the world since World War II," Poland's prime minister said on Monday, as quoted by Bloomberg.
The Battle Of Kursk
A future clash between Ukraine and Russia in Donbas, as predicted by Morawiecki, echoes the horrors of the Battle of Kursk between German and Soviet forces in July 1943.
The battle was Germany's last chance to conquer the Eastern Front after being defeated by the Red Army in the Battle of Stalingrad the year before. Kursk, a city in western Russia 280 miles south of Moscow, became the stage of a week-long bloody battle involving heavy artillery, tanks and over a million men.
Germany reportedly had amassed over 500,000 men, 10,000 mortars and artillery pieces, 2,500 aircraft and 2,700 tanks at the front in Kursk. The Soviet Army faced the German troops with over one million men, more than 20,000 artillery pieces and mortars, 2,650 aircraft and 3,600 tanks. The Red Army reportedly had an additional 1,500 tanks to deploy.
It is estimated that there were 800,000 casualties on the Soviet side, while the Germans suffered 200,000 casualties. The battle ended when the Germans were forced to retreat after being unable to break through
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
Interesting, honestly.
Ukraine ping
Russia has a defense budget 12x Ukraine’s. This multiple is a formidable advantage in wartime - equipment-wise, whatever Ukraine has, Russia has several times as many units, at minimum. In the coming single-axis clash, the outcome will depend on the West making up for Ukraine’s equipment deficiencies. Offers of howitzers and tanks are coming through. The question is whether they will arrive in time for what may be a decisive battle, at the end of which the loser goes into headlong retreat while being pursued by the victor.
Seems like the Ukes use a small number of forces, well armed, to engage. As long as they have a path to make strategic retreats, they could make it very painful for Putin.
Russia has 12,000 tanks. Ukraine has 2500.
Nobody is waging massive tank battles.
To date all I have seen is Ukrainians firing light-weight anti-tank weapons and destroying Russian tanks.
Russian training and tactics with their tanks, are decades behind the West.
Russia doesnt have 12,000 usable tanks. Its limited by its available trained manpower, plus the condition of this inventory, which is supposed to be, overall, in poor shape. Russia has chosen not to mobilize its reservists, so that puts a very tight constraint on the units it can activate.
Ukraine is similarly constrained, though it almost certainly has greater available manpower than Russia, again because of the mobilization issue.
Formerly the case. Its not so clear how much foreign aid Ukraine has been getting lately.
Russia counts all the tanks in its inventory, not all their operational tanks…which is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay less. Most of those 12,000 tanks are used for parts and mothballed. It would take tons of money and manpower to get them ready to fight, and then more time and money to get them where they need to go. Russia can only move assets by rail, they have no serious airlift capability.
In short Russia does not have 12,000 tanks.
News week...
Real’y?
Doesn’t seen like the outcome will change. Eventually, just by the law of attrition, Russia will win, of course, if they have a will.
OTOH, The West now sees that Ukraine might be the best chance of taking Russia completely out of the game.
That would really change the complexion of things in the world, but
What happens to all those nukes?
Not good.
This is what happens when a free election in our country is fraudulent.
NO EFFING WAY THE PEOPLE OF THE USA VOTED FOR BIDEN AND HARRIS.
NOW WAY......AND THIS IS THE OUTCOME.
Is this a bad time to mention that the Seven Last Plagues sound a lot like what would happen in the aftermath of a nuclear war?
I wonder if the Ukes will to some degree play “Rope-A-Dope”, give up some territory, and continue to pick off Russian equipment as gear continues to come in from the West. Even given all the Russians’ problems, in open terrain they will have the advantage.
However...
Even if Putin “wins” here in the short run, long term he has big problems. One I’ve not heard discussed much is that he’ll be taking over a largely depopulated (except for resistance fighters), devastated area. This makes Russia’s serious demographics problem worse. Meanwhile, he’s given Europe a huge shot in the arm of Western oriented, fairly easily assimilated people, with many children included, which helps Europe’s demographics problem, once the refugees get settled in...
The Ukrainean army in the Donbass has lost most of its tanks and most of its fuel.
That's why we are watching a leisurely envelopment: the Ukraineans in the area have no power of strategic manoeuve.
After eight years of war the Ukraineans are very well dug in and fortified on the eastern flank (facing Donetsk): but not so much to the north and south. These flanks are (I guess) where we will see movement.
I can’t imagine any army voluntarily having a ‘leisurely envelopment’.
“Get there firstest with the mostest” might be apocryphal but i still think it’s true.
The think in tank battles is that tanks are always were vulnerable to air attack and artillery. That has been how they have been destroyed the most, with tank on tank being far behind. The recent (couple years) trend is drone attacks. In the war with Armenia drones proved highly effective tank killers. In Ukraine NLAW’s and Javelins have proved to be the real tank killers.
In a Ukraine vs Russia tank on tank battle, what will be decisive and rewrite military tactics will be Russian air superiority versus Ukrainian use of drones, NLAW’s, Javelins, manpad antiaircraft missiles.
What I suspect to occur will be Ukraine use of very ground mobile systems as the killer mode with tanks as being the bait for killing both Russian tanks, Russian aircraft. On the Russian side, I would expect them to use aircraft, artillery, and tanks to focus on killing Ukrainian tanks. I expect an attempt at a “race to Baghdad” style “shock and awe” run by the Russian tankers.
This could be a war where the boots on the ground, when armed with NLAWS, ManPad singers, Javelins, and drone controls, is the decisive factor and the day of the tank is pretty much over. To accomplish this will likely require stripping away effective Russian control of the air by luring them in and destroying them with stingers and S-300 mobile antiaircraft missiles. Then attacking the tank formations with ground troops.
I am sure that whatever happens will be the subject of presentations at war colleges for decades.
The S-300 would be lucky to knock down a 70’s made F-16. Total junk against modern stealth.
Think of it as a seige, not as an assault.
Small incremental movements. Use of all forms of bombardment. Encouragement of defection. Minimisation of casualties.
The Ukrainean side is strategically immobilised and its line of logistics through Kiev are overlooked.
There don't seem to be any major time pressures on the Russians: sanctions have not particularly hurt them - in fact the sanctions have strengthened the Ruble and have fortified Putin politically.
Many Oligarchs have suffered financially from the sanctions - but the Oligarchs were Putin's rivals. It was a colossal own goal to sanction them.
The Russians do want to get it done, but ... they can afford to be deliberate. I believe that we are seeing this.
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