Posted on 03/28/2022 12:57:27 PM PDT by marcusmaximus
Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.
Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised.
The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added.
Envoys from both sides are to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies.
But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
Give me one logical argument built on facts.
What do you question:
That Russia has had NATO membership as their point of contention all along?
That we were in violation of the Minsk Accord and had sf training them after 2014 and we’re arming them?
That Russia allowed unfettered trade with Europe, western investments, free movement of people... and a special economic status with the EU?
That Biden last October gave the OK for Ukraine to join NATO?
That Russia all but pleaded to reconsider this October - December 2021?
Or that strategically Ukraine is a problem for the Russians if a NATO member?
That we historically have had the Monroe doctrine and invaded nations when in a far less grave situation, i.e. Nicaragua, Grenada, or almost went to a nuclear war: Cuban missile crisis?
Again, what part do you disagree with?
I’ll gladly look at your arguments.
That’s how I see it.
Absolutely don’t care who lives or dies in this nothing-burger war. The real war is being fought here n the US.
Biden did this fully knowing this is HUGE sore spot for the Russians and always has been: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNgCwoaT9u4 (Do you know this guy from 1997?)
This comes after we go into Syria and make unilateral decisions, and Syria has been a Russian ally since the 1970s with air and naval bases there. How is this factually incorrect?
This comes after we promise “absolutely no missile defense” and in 2001 we withdraw from the ballistic missile treaty and start building a missile defense system in earnest. Is this wrong?
This comes on the heals of the Republic of Georgia (another bordering former Soviet republic} where we did the same damn thing. Or do you deny that?
Do you disagree with any of this?
Let me give you another perspective, one our one sided media will not give you. We are the big dog and we are encroaching on their space, breaking our promises and agreements and outright threatening them at this point.
The Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union are gone, history. Russia has 55% of the conventional forces we have, an economy the size of Texas, few allies that are not very powerful (unlike NATO which is packed with power houses like the UK and France). They are dreaming of bringing the Soviet Union back or invading Western Europe, all that talk is idiotic. They are with their back to the wall and feel threatened by NATO being able to put a missile site that could hit most of the populated parts of Russia and Moscow in 6 minutes.
Does this look like they are invading to you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCeKmcxd91s
We would not dare do the same with China today! Our actions prove two things:
1. We are a hegemon and act like one.
2. We no longer see the Russians as a viable opponent that can stand up to us.
Rhetoric alone is no argument.
That is perfect regurgitation of the Kremlin’s talking points.
14 former Soviet countries have joined NATO, FOURTEEN.
The Phony excuse about NATO is just a pathetic lame excuse to invade and take regions that are resource rich. Like most criminal scumbags, Russia blames the victim for making them commit the crime. Russia has pulled the same garbage to invade and take back Cheynya and Georgia. Phony excuses.
Factually wrong.
Many Warsaw Pact countries joined NATO.
Only 3 former Soviet Republics are NATO: Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (2004).
Also, you're not hearing about the pro-Russian rallies in some of those former Soviet Republics that are now NATO, interestingly.
But these errors do not change anything.
We lied. We broke numerous agreements (Eastward NATO expansion, missile defense, NATO/US troops in former Soviet Republics). We are hypocrites because we would not allow this done to us and in fact historically have invaded nations for the same reason as Russia is today (Grenada). We would not dare do this with China and we do a careful tap dance with Taiwan and the Spratly Islands. If you look at a map, and look at the roads, rail, airports, size of Ukraine and topography, it's infrastructure, location to Russia... It is a huge security problem for the Russians if this place becomes a NATO state. They won't allow it. If they have to, they will stay as long as it takes, and they will inflict whatever damage is needed to prevent this. The Ukraine will pay the ultimate price for our greed and a comedian acting like a noble statesman that is selfishly leading his nation into ruin for his own aspirations of power. But he's our boy and does as he's told, so we back him.
Why did all those Soviet and Soviet aligned countries join NATO? To protect themselves from your crimnal thug regime. Good god, get a clue!!!
Want to see something odd. Google ‘Diia city’ and then hit maps. It should take you to Ukraine. But it doesn’t. Even if you type ‘Diia city Ukraine’. It takes you to the IMF in DC.
So let me understand your argument.
“If you disagree with me, it’s Russian propaganda.”
Or is this a better interpretation.
“The other side doesn’t have an opinion or view that we should consider.”
Or is this the better version.
“The MSM in the US and our political elite have decided. I do not need facts, context or a timeline. I know I’m right because I ***feel strongly*** about this since everyone else agrees, experts tell me so, and I don’t want to be labeled for disagreement.”
I don’t blame you. Covid, global warming, the ozone hole, LGBTQ, BLM... America is a nation of fads and you need to be on board with it, or else. The general mood or direction regards Ukraine has been decided and now everyone needs to get their blue and yellow flags out and waive them. Have you gotten your 4th covid shot yet? You don’t want to be reckless and irresponsible do you?
https://www.nytimes.com/article/4th-covid-shot-2nd-booster.html
Actually, sadly I wish I could get their side of the story. But here in the US we censor heavily, like in the former Soviet Union, and it’s really difficult to get it.
Glad we support regime change in Saudi Arabia.
China is our biggest trading partner and we just dropped the last remaining 350 trade restrictions from the Trump era.
Which one of these human right following, democratic, LGBTQ embracing, environmental, free speech supporting, places do we have an issue with?
Try making one argument using one fact. Please!
We are the ones motivated by economic interests here.
The Russians are motivated by self preservation, security.
Let that sink in.
Sometimes it’s really just not that difficult to decide which side to be on. 14 Sovuet or Soviet aligned countries feel they need protection from the Kremlin. If you cant figure out why you are lost.
The IMF, hey? Hmmmmmmm...
The Putin but boys don’t like Zelensky be He went after the transsexuals.
Well last I heard those of Azov still in Mariupol have left their stations and gathered under some harehouse there....otherwise Putins obviously cut their presense there at least in half and the rest likely just ran. They generally do that in conflicts. But I doubt that they’ll be totally gone - Ukraines like their Capital State. They simply go into hiding until the next conflict.
Others are doing this, it must be right.
Not an argument.
However, if you want to open that can of worms, there are six (6) former Soviet Republics that voluntarily are part of the Russian collective security system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization
Since that's twice as many as former Soviet republics joining NATO, does that mean something? Not really, but that's the logic of your argument.
Again, the argument you bring, is a “non-argument.” It is a textbook fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwagon_effect
***(Now to the actual meat of the issue)***
That said, since you're opening that door (who is favored, liked etc) you are basically going down the road of ethic identity and with whom people want to be associated etc.
Ukraine is NOT homogeneous in its views. It's a nation that has a ~20% Russian ethnic minority and they live in certain areas: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Ethnolingusitic_map_of_ukraine.png (See those yellow areas? Those are ethnic Russians and these people actually “want” to be part of Russia)
So if they want to be part of Russia, why are they not? Because despite a separatist movement it is Ukraine with the help of US money, intel, weapons, and Special Forces that have helped suppress these folks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/11/12/for-ukraines-special-forces-a-war-of-misuse-and-ill-supply/ (from 2015)
Why would we do that? Why would we want to “liberate” these people like we did the Iraqi's and Syrians? Because the heavy industry is mostly in the East: https://www.netmaps.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Ukraine-Economic-map.png
We want Ukraine because of its economic value. But much of that value is from the Eastern part that is “ETHNIC RUSSIAN.” If we get Ukraine, but the Western parts, we get a bunch of farm land, and that's not what we are after. Your Ukrainian special forces freedom fighters, are actually the folks suppressing a Russian minority that doesn't want to be part of Ukraine. How does that fit into your paradigm?
That is what our leaders are doing. That is what our media is feeding us. Why?
Because if you argue by saying we want Ukraine because it's a 30% industrial economy, with 41,000,000 people, a solid infrastructure, functioning government bureaucracy, and with MASSIVE growth potential... That don't sound good.
If you say we were “lying” and were arming Ukraine as well as sending Special Forces there to train them in direct violation of treaties. That don't sound good and who is talking about that? No one.
If you look at Ukraine and their location and size, and then apply basic reasoning skills (you do not need to be a military strategist, intel officer, or general to figure this out) and think about what the long term security implications are for Russian if Ukraine is in NATO, that would give the Russians some justification, and we don't want that, do we?
If you say the war ultimately started because we “lied” and even though in 2014 we agreed to no NATO membership for Ukraine, in 2021 Biden did exactly that, agree to Ukraine entering NATO: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/ That doesn't make the Russians look like they are entirely wrong.
If I were Biden I too would much rather talk about the poor children of Kiev. If I were a US media outlet and in step with the government and corporate masters, I would write articles about Ukrainian girls with blue and yellow ribbons in their hair holding rifles and avoid anything of substance. https://www.breakinglatest.news/world/ukraine-the-story-of-the-girl-with-a-rifle-in-her-arms-and-a-lollipop-in-her-mouth-the-photo-goes-around-the-world/
If you try arguing using facts, you quickly realize one thing. They aren't on your side. What does that mean?
You win this argument, because the ideas you hold/express are the commonly held ones, they have already prevailed and that is the way the public has swung.
The problem you do not see, is that there will be a price to pay for us.
Russia is actually very predictable. They are more predicable than we are, because they do not have the vast political and bureaucratic turn over.
I am an American. I want what is best for this country because I am also a nationalist. I actually sympathize with a nationalist movement like you have in Ukraine. But their neighbor is Russia. And Russia's perceptions/arguments are also valid. Nonetheless, I question if what we did will long term be the best for us.
That said, eventually when some helicopter is brought down over Baghdad, no one in the US will remember our providing of lethal aid to Ukraine today.
Find some group in Iraq that doesn't like us (most of them).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_militias_in_Iraq
Give them these.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K333_Verba
When a fixed wing aircraft is brought down over the Gulf, or one of our ships has a big burning hole in its side, we will ask “how dare the Russians sell such weapons to Iran which are bad guys,” but we will long have forgotten that we supplied our aid to groups with a literal Nazi ideology.
Sell this to Iran:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-300P_Bastion-P
What comes around goes around - I think that's how that saying goes?
In a few years we will pay, and of course today will not be remembered. Will you remember?
Because we just reopened a Pandora's box that was mostly closed after the end of the Cold War.
“What comes around goes around - I think that’s how that saying goes?”
This is what I remember!!!
Putin and Russia provided the technical expertise for the IED’s used by Iran in Iraq. More American troops lost their lives and were wounded due to them than anything else. THIS IS US PAYING THEM BACK.
Not trying to just disagree with you on everything.
They were actually helping us in 2001 and for a little while thereafter. There were a few RPG7VR’s which they could have gotten through a third party in Iraq. There were somewhat speculative reports of Kornet, which I never saw, but the battle space was huge and they could have been there, but if at all, it was very limited and I cannot speak to how they might have gotten there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PG-7VR
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M133_Kornet
Iran got involved heavily and played through their proxies like Muqtar al Sadr. Their Quds forces (comparable to our SF) were advising and equipping these militias in how to fight us. They were probably also providing training in safe places outside Iraq. Iran actually has domestic production of mortar rounds, they provided PVS7s (not sure if they were Iranian clones or illegal exports from the US), Garmin GPS (that I saw first hand) and much of the IED stuff was common off the shelf items: IR barrier (like you use in a store when people enter and it goes ding-dong).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quds_Force
You're definitely over reaching on this one.
Russia actually allowed us use of their facilities in Kyrgyzstan in support of the Afghanistan campaign in 2001, they were feeding us Intel on folks coming our way: https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/boston-bombing-anniversary/russia-warned-u-s-about-tsarnaev-spelling-issue-let-him-n60836
Did the Russians sell stuff to Saddam, 100%. But did they sell “lethal equipment?” In hindsight, probably not. The Iraqi's also had TOW (our systems), Milan (French - German), Roland (French - German)... Most of these systems either got there before the 1991 war, through a third party after 1991, captured when taking Kuwait, or through illegal arms sales where it's not the stated policy of a nation but rather some individual trying to get rich off of making some back door deals. Finally, since Iraq raged on for many years (2003 - 2011) and the Iraqi's were getting arms for their own security forces as they came on line, some of these weapons also surely ended up in the wrong hands. For whatever it's worth, I don't think the Russians were selling Iraq arms after 1991 nor arming insurgents. But Iran was, no question about that one in my mind, because I saw some of the stuff first hand.
All MANPADS we found were old, SA7, SA14... Not one single SA18 (where things start becoming interesting) was found, and we did a lot of searches and found a lot of shit. They didn't have any advanced ATGM’s except for the limited reports (it may have literally been one case) of Kornet use. As to RPGs... you can buy them in an open bazaar in some African countries, Yemen and elsewhere: https://jamestown.org/program/yemen-dangerous-regional-arms-bazaar/
Look at users in the link provided and former users. And probably 1/2 of these countries make their own. The RPG is like an AK47. It's everywhere.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPG-7#:~:text=The%20RPG%2D7%20and%20its,by%20the%20Russian%20company%20Bazalt.
In the Cold War we were right and the good guys. After 9-11 we were right and we had all the reason to go after AQ and the Taliban harboring them. You can even argue Iraq was justifiable...
But what we are doing today is very different.
***You cannot claim this is defensive***
This is economic and we caused it by pushing someone else into a corner where they feel threatened by our actions. They are “reacting” to us.
Their demands are reasonable (merely leave Ukraine out of some military alliance - no US/NATO forces there), but we want it all. Why not if you can, and if it costs you nearly nothing to try?
This is a stupid and unnecessary war where we didn't respect the boundaries of another world or maybe just regional power. We were never threatened. They were very clear. This has been an issue for “decades” that has been spelled out in multiple languages through treaties we agreed to and then broke (Minsk Accord). We wouldn't allow this situation if we were in their shoes, and it is just a mere fact that we didn't: Cuban missile crisis, Grenada, Nicaragua.
There is a difference between loyalty and stupidity. I of course am loyal to my country and will support it. But I am not stupid enough to believe the trash I am being fed by the MSM or our political elite.
There us freeper that has posted that they were in CENTCOM and stated what I said was 100 true, backed by hard intelligence. I’ll trust them.
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