Posted on 03/08/2022 9:38:10 AM PST by Widget Jr
Day 13 of the Russian invasion and Kyiv hasn't fallen yet. Russian forces begin to set in for a longer battle. What will happen?
Using a live update open source intelligence tool we can track the Russian military in real time.
https://liveuamap.com is the website used for open source intel.
The Russian Way of War: Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernization of the Russian Ground Forces pdf
Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
Outline and my reactions:
Russia is having a lot of problems which the news is gleefully reporting. They are also taking more territory and advancing their objectives, which means they are winning no matter how bad their tires are.Long term, even if Russia takes Ukraine, they may not be able to hold it, and how the sanctions and other actions will affect them long term.
Your thoughts?
“Your thoughts? “
~~~
Not to go to godwin’s law, but if I recall correctly, hitler wanted to take Paris without destroying it’s landmarks and civil infrastructure, to be a part of the reich I guess. Seems to me that there’s a parallel here. Ukraine was once a key part of the USSR. I think Putin didn’t want to have to lay waste to it.
It provides some relief to the Democrats to think that the Russians are stupid and incompetent.
Though these thoughts make them feel better, thoughts are not reality.
The reality is that the Russians keep fighting and advancing.
They are winning.
They are taking casualties and losing equipment, but they are advancing.
Our strategists have to figure out where The Culminating Point is for Russia.
The Culminating point is where the Russians stop.
BINGO!
Russia does not operate like USA where only thing which counts is bottom line at end of this quarter. Russia has been around way longer than USA has been around. Putin is president for life. He has no time schedule to subdue Ukraine into submission. My guess is his strategy is to make life so miserable in Ukraine cities, so the regime falls from internal pressures.
s&p 500 is up 4.7% today, so the footsie games might be more than just games(?)
He could be lying, but Putin never stated that capturing and holding Ukraine was an objective. I think installation of a friendly regime in Ukraine is an objective though.
Reuters: U.S. spy chiefs say Putin may escalate despite Ukraine setbacks
Did you guys say the same thing when Russia gobbled up Crimea?
One in the same.
BINGO! you seem more knowledgeable about geo-politics in that region.
“s&p 500 is up 4.7% today,”
Up 1%.
The will of the invaded place more of a role than their military power. And the Poles had a greater will than the French even if the French possessed far greater military power.
It took the Nazis about 6 weeks to conquer the Ukraine too, with a much bigger army that was skilled at blitzkrieg.
Note correction.
These are MODERN Western cities - not the cities of the 1940s, nor those of Iraq or Afghanistan.
I disagree that means they are necessary winning. If you are gaining ground, but taking casualties at an unsustainable rate, you are losing.
Fantastic example of this in the history of the American Revolution in the southern theater. American General Nathanael Greene was put in command of the southern theater of war after the disastrous defeat of Horatio Gates at the Battle of Camden.
Greene basically fought a series of "losing" battles against Cornwallis, who pursued him northward as Greene retreated after each "lost" battle. But the problem for Cornwallis was that his losses were unsustainable. At Guilford Courthouse, Cornwallis held the field yet again at the end of the day, but again only after suffering significant losses. He ended up looking around at all the ground he had gained, all the troops he had lost, and realized "oh crap. All this time I thought I was winning tactically, I was actually losing strategically." He ended up retreating -- after actually winning the battle --, eventually losing his gains, and finally ending up at Yorktown, and we all know how that ended.
I'm not saying that the Ukrainians are necessarily winning -- I'm simply saying without accurate casualty figures, consumption figures for material and supplies, impacts on unit effectiveness, etc., for both sides, we can't conclude that Russia is on track to win this war simply because they are currently taking ground.
Think about that. A real pooch wagger is going on. It involves global handlers. Cover for Biden is part of it to help Iran go nuclear, China take Taiwan, Japan settle its territory disputes with Russia. Destroy industrial capacity in America and destabilize our economy at the direction of China, destroy American citizens retirement savings, restrict personal liberties and movement, and take over every aspect of personal life.
The Ukrainians and Russians are close kin. There is the memory of the Holodomor, but there are centuries of shared history. Now Putin is ensuring that Russia will be hated. The game ain't worth the candle, but he's crossed the Rubicon.
The Russian helicopter gunships are not going to be very effective in this war. To avoid ground fire they have to fly low and fast. To attack ground targets they have to rise above the tree line and go slow.
So when they attack they are susceptible not to anti-aircraft missiles that are not so useful against low altitude targets but to anti-tank missiles. The Russians have lost a lot of their helicopters to anti-tank missiles.
Cheap Chinese-made tires are posing issues for the Russians and tire failure has caused the Russians to abandon a number of intact vehicles that the Ukrainians have snapped up. Part of what Macron is sending to Ukraine in the aid package are decent military grade Michelin tires which will allow the Ukes to repair and utilize abandoned Russian equipment.
Russian forces have fired into Ukraine from Belarus and Belarussian airspace. Seems only fair that the Ukrainians respond by killing Russians in Belarus and in Belarussian airspace.
Until now Ukraine has not directly attacked Russia. I expect that to change. Soon.
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