Posted on 02/28/2022 8:20:47 AM PST by datura
One of the questions asked over and over about Putin’s callous invasion of an inoffensive neighbor, an invasion that is mysteriously rationalized by an amazing number of people on the right who were apoplectic over Trudeau’s brutality with the Freedom Convoy, is what was his objective. It’s obvious that he was torqued about Ukraine flirting with EU and NATO membership, but if he wanted regime change, a few million dollars, an AstroTurfed mob, and a GRU or Spetsznaz hit squad could have accomplished that (look at how easily Putin installed his previous stooge, Yanukovych) with much less melodrama and loss of life.
Some have postulated that Putin launched this invasion as a way of warning any country thinking about joining NATO that NATO would do nothing to help them.
Good questions. If we don’t understand what motivated Putin to engage in this adventure, it becomes much more difficult to anticipate and deter future instances of him acting out.
What follows next, I think, fills in the blank spaces on what was behind the Ukraine invasion. I present it with grave reservations because I’m not all that familiar with the sources and am relying on the credibility of Christo Gorzev, an award-winning investigative journalist who is now the Executive Director of Bellingcat. Allegedly, the Russians have accused Bellingcat of being a front for Western intelligence; I don’t have an opinion on that. My sole experience in following their coverage following the downing of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 by an Iranian SAM found them to be so slavishly pro-Iran that I wondered if they were on retainer (It Looks Increasingly Likely That Iran Accidentally Shot Down That Ukrainian Airliner). Anyway, here goes.
So, the same essay appeared on Saturday in at least three Russian outlets, including Sputnik. Then it disappeared without notice. You can read the archive.org version here; I’ve provided some key snippets below.
A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era – and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system – but this is worth talking about separately a little later.
Russia is restoring its unity – the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.
… Now this problem is gone – Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. In what borders, in what form will the alliance with Russia be fixed (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus )? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.
And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era – it concerns Russia’s relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage – the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe . And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise.
… Because the construction of a new world order – and this is the third dimension of current events – is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality – the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well – this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia’s return of its historical space and its place in the world.
As I’ve noted a couple of times, my professional assessment is that Russia thought the Ukraine operation would be over by Happy Hour on Friday. Everything indicates they were moving on a tight timetable that assumed the flight of the Ukrainian government, the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the passivity of the Ukrainian people. The article would have coincided with photo ops taken in Kiev as soon as a new government was installed. When that didn’t happen, Russia acted like CNN covering up a mistake.
The content of the essay fits in very well with what we’ve seen from Russia for the past few years. I think the fact that the essay talks about uniting the Russian people and Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus acting as one polity is much closer to the view I expressed yesterday than to the idea that Putin wants to recreate the USSR. This is a quote from Putin’s Threats to Sweden and Finland Are Much More Real Than They Are Being Given Credit For; “If you think the goal is a reconstituted USSR, I believe you have it wrong. The goal is the Russia of Nicholas II. He’s not interested in Potemkin Soviet Socialist Republics. He sees Ukraine and Belarus, and Moldova as integral parts of Greater Russia.”
It is also interesting that Putin is targeting the entire international security order as it has existed since 1945. In fact, he’s actually trying to reestablish the security environment as it was on the eve of World War I with multiple centers of gravity and endless opportunities for Russia to expand her influence into areas where NATO has frozen her out.
I’m sure we’ll see more on this over the next days; if it turns out to be accurate, we’ve had a window open into Putin’s thinking that clarifies what his endgame is. Whether Joey SoftServe and the White Rage Warriors are up to dealing with it remains to be seen.
Not only that Trump supports Putin but that Biden saved the day.
Never has NATO been more United. East Europe under Biden is tough on Putin.
BS. They are tough because Putin is at their door and Biden is weakened and Trump warned them.
The media is insane. 24/7 listening to old fossils gleefully out of retirement to beat the war drums. All the US news is gone-poof. Tried to watch Dateline and Gutfield and everything is preempted with the same thing. Continuous loop now focusing on the children.
"In view of the historical destiny of Russia and its peoples, the Leninist principles of state-building were not only a mistake, but far worse than a mistake. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991 this became absolutely obvious.Of course, the events of the past cannot be changed, but we must at least speak about them directly and honestly, without reservations and without political coloration. I can only add that the considerations of the current political conjuncture, however spectacular and advantageous they may seem at a given moment, should not or cannot under any circumstances form the basis for the fundamental principles of statehood.
This is neither the time nor the place to discuss issues of state or constitutional law and to define the concept of citizenship. Nevertheless, the question arises: why did the country have to be shaken even further under these already difficult circumstances?"
Putin says it out loud, in black and white: 'You have no 'state', you have no 'sovereignty', and you have no 'citizenship' -- other than what I grant you of all of those 3 -- so, I'm going to Kiev'.
People in that thread didn't want to believe it he was going to invade then (or now!).
Please clarify: That's what your friends think, or that's what they and Putin think?
Regardless, it is high ignorance by Putin. The majority of Ukrainians do NOT want to follow the path of, say, Belarus. They want better than that. Post-1st-Russia-land-grab, maybe another third thought appeasement / leaning pro-Russia could still ease tensions, maybe even bring in economic aid from Russia. (Early Yushchenko style.) A small minority in the East wanted to go full bore Russian domination / control / Russian state. (Late Yushchenko on steroids.)
I can imagine Putin's ignorance. Domineering, powerful, arrogant people tend to get surrounded by yes men, and can fail to see a true picture even when obvious. I've experienced that in business organizations more than once.
I'd love to be the messenger to the talks (if they happen):
"I have a message from my President.
We will never surrender. (Churchill)
If I fall, another will rise. And then another. And yet another. (Fictional character.)
We demand full reparations, return of all occupied territories including Crimea and Donbas, and disarmament of Russia and Belarus."
Slight pause.
"The message from the Ukrainian people is rather less polite." Slight pause. "Good day."
Then walk out.
Hell, I volunteer to deliver the message. Seriously. I've had a pretty good life. What better way to exit, if so be it.
Pound sand.
Oh, just saw this. So, I understand who you meant by your friends / their thinking.
Very unfortunate for Russia.
Actually, I mostly think of them (except the numerous obvious trolls) as merely incapable of recognizing that the enemy of my enemy may be a much worse enemy.
Who are the elite/Oligarch and immediate power players backing Putin in Russia?
What do they want? How will they impact us with Brandon as POTUS and our Democrat Congress, who hate us 24/7?
We have similar short and long term issues here in America.
What do the USA elites, who control Brandon, Congress, many of our governors, their legislatures, and big Blue cities and the Xi want to happen to/in America & Taiwan?
What does Red China, Xi and their N. Korean puppet/leader want?
What do our so called 5 Eye Allies in the Pacific, Australia and New Zealand want?
Our fake news mediots will never tell us about any of the above.
They will blame Trump and his Deploreables for what is happening and will happen in our world!
“I’ve provided some key snippets below.”
Full document (translated) here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/rxulx40mbs69o3o/Offensive%20of%20Russia%20and%20the%20new%20world%20-%20RIA%20Novosti%2C%2026.02.2022.pdf?dl=0
(Pardon the awkward PDF formatting.)
Document seemed a planned declaration of purpose, to be published upon scheduled victory over Ukraine. Bureaucrats did as told (failure wasn’t an option, so that wasn’t considered), it was published, and then the “oops” was realized and duly retracted - not before being copied.
Paraphrased: “Mother Russia is the union of modern Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Without union, there is no Russia. The West is fading, the East does its own thing, Russia must unite. There is but one Russia; we now defend it from those who would separate it.”
#68 above.
It’s a valid question. I’m interested in your earnest answer.
I think Putin looks very ill...this will be his last hurrah, except nobody will be cheering.”
The recent photo with his top generals at about 30+’ away from him at the opposite end of the long table, is very interesting.
“Putin sees himself not as an imperialist, but as the Abe Lincoln of greater Russia.”
If he is terminal, health wise, future actions on his orders might be very scary for a lot of the world, including us.
Your observations are virtually congruent with mine.
I think there is a growing aggregate of people coming to very similar conclusions.
A buffer defense and the rebuilding of the USSR. Not exactly rocket science
Yeah. I’m thinking the same.
I’m wondering if we aren’t about to be refighting WWII just a little bit. Except the fascists already control most of the world this time.
I’m no fan of Putin. But I recognize the Nazis when I see them.
Also starting to wonder if there was a little more to the whole Trump-Russia BS. Those were two pretty powerful leaders that probably wouldn’t have gone along with the great reset. Have to split those two up.
Bttt
I must wonder if that picture is not staged and thus fake. Any photographs coming from the Kremlin would naturally place Putin in the best light possible. It would be no different than the White House or 10 Downing Street.
As an independent conservative, I don't trust reporting from any side, government, or media outlet.
If my not praising the heroes of one side or condemning the demons of the other side means that I've chosen sides, then that's just ignorant.
I'm on the side of no American blood spilled.
Russia wants to prevent Ukraine from developing oil and gas that it would use to export to Europe. This would give Ukraine a workable economy and allow it to integrate with the EU. But the main thing is that Europe would have an energy source independent of Russia, which has spent decades making Europe dependent on Russian gas. Petrochemical exports are said to be 35% of Russia’s GDP and fees provide 50% of its government budget. Supposedly there is producible oil/gas in the “breakaway” Donetsk PR that Russia will soon annex, and huge offshore reserves around Crimea. If all that is true, Putin’s machinations against Ukraine are a HUGE ROBBERY hidden behind a smokescreen of security concerns (there is a security dimension to it, but it’s not driving the bus). Maybe our government should mention this.
Yeah, that type of rhetoric is expected on chat sites and twitter kind of places. When published writers and media reporters use that kind of dishonesty, it’s troubling. That’s how these “big lies” take hold.
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