Posted on 02/28/2022 8:20:47 AM PST by datura
One of the questions asked over and over about Putin’s callous invasion of an inoffensive neighbor, an invasion that is mysteriously rationalized by an amazing number of people on the right who were apoplectic over Trudeau’s brutality with the Freedom Convoy, is what was his objective. It’s obvious that he was torqued about Ukraine flirting with EU and NATO membership, but if he wanted regime change, a few million dollars, an AstroTurfed mob, and a GRU or Spetsznaz hit squad could have accomplished that (look at how easily Putin installed his previous stooge, Yanukovych) with much less melodrama and loss of life.
Some have postulated that Putin launched this invasion as a way of warning any country thinking about joining NATO that NATO would do nothing to help them.
Good questions. If we don’t understand what motivated Putin to engage in this adventure, it becomes much more difficult to anticipate and deter future instances of him acting out.
What follows next, I think, fills in the blank spaces on what was behind the Ukraine invasion. I present it with grave reservations because I’m not all that familiar with the sources and am relying on the credibility of Christo Gorzev, an award-winning investigative journalist who is now the Executive Director of Bellingcat. Allegedly, the Russians have accused Bellingcat of being a front for Western intelligence; I don’t have an opinion on that. My sole experience in following their coverage following the downing of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 by an Iranian SAM found them to be so slavishly pro-Iran that I wondered if they were on retainer (It Looks Increasingly Likely That Iran Accidentally Shot Down That Ukrainian Airliner). Anyway, here goes.
So, the same essay appeared on Saturday in at least three Russian outlets, including Sputnik. Then it disappeared without notice. You can read the archive.org version here; I’ve provided some key snippets below.
A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era – and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system – but this is worth talking about separately a little later.
Russia is restoring its unity – the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.
… Now this problem is gone – Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. In what borders, in what form will the alliance with Russia be fixed (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus )? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.
And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era – it concerns Russia’s relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage – the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe . And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise.
… Because the construction of a new world order – and this is the third dimension of current events – is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality – the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well – this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia’s return of its historical space and its place in the world.
As I’ve noted a couple of times, my professional assessment is that Russia thought the Ukraine operation would be over by Happy Hour on Friday. Everything indicates they were moving on a tight timetable that assumed the flight of the Ukrainian government, the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the passivity of the Ukrainian people. The article would have coincided with photo ops taken in Kiev as soon as a new government was installed. When that didn’t happen, Russia acted like CNN covering up a mistake.
The content of the essay fits in very well with what we’ve seen from Russia for the past few years. I think the fact that the essay talks about uniting the Russian people and Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus acting as one polity is much closer to the view I expressed yesterday than to the idea that Putin wants to recreate the USSR. This is a quote from Putin’s Threats to Sweden and Finland Are Much More Real Than They Are Being Given Credit For; “If you think the goal is a reconstituted USSR, I believe you have it wrong. The goal is the Russia of Nicholas II. He’s not interested in Potemkin Soviet Socialist Republics. He sees Ukraine and Belarus, and Moldova as integral parts of Greater Russia.”
It is also interesting that Putin is targeting the entire international security order as it has existed since 1945. In fact, he’s actually trying to reestablish the security environment as it was on the eve of World War I with multiple centers of gravity and endless opportunities for Russia to expand her influence into areas where NATO has frozen her out.
I’m sure we’ll see more on this over the next days; if it turns out to be accurate, we’ve had a window open into Putin’s thinking that clarifies what his endgame is. Whether Joey SoftServe and the White Rage Warriors are up to dealing with it remains to be seen.
IMHO it’s the WH and media trying to marginalize and discredit the right.
Biden’s popularity in the toilet means the Right must be cast as the Devil in all situations. They are trying to claim Trump caused Putin to move, not them.
Putin felt he was at a tipping point. He wants to rebuild the USSR and the West is trying to hem him in by putting a NATO state on his border.
This is the fight for now, but Putin has much larger plans for the future.
😉
This. Yes.
Yeah Steve, I agree with you completely.
But most of us in the West have ignored Ukraine and it’s importance in the eyes of the USSR. I know I did. Too busy focusing on our own internal fight against communism and immigration invasion.
I think Putin looks very ill...this will be his last hurrah, except nobody will be cheering.
“He wants to rebuild the USSR.”
More like Imperial Russia. Those borders.
Excpet they killed their King and his family so who is the new king?
You get two guesses and the first doesn’t count.
“Right Wing” is considered evil across North America, Europe and Russia, even if it makes no sense. Anyone who disagrees is labelled “right wing” or “Fascist,” or “Nazi.”
Bkmk
This is EXACTLY what Hitler tried to do, just substitute German for Russian.
Putin himself told us the same thing in his bizarre rant about history he gave the world several days ago, claiming Ukraine doesn't even have the right to exist as a country.
What is Putin? Putin is a fascist. Putin is a Nazi.
That the Ukrainians and not Putin are the ones constantly called fascists and Nazis is just brazen deceitfulness and abuse of language, like when a black racist on MSNBC sputters that only white people can be racist.
Isn’t it already known that he wants the USSR back. The glory days of the Soviet Union.
It’s the Left trying to heap any support of Putin and his objectives as being something that Conservatives/Republicans support. Going into November the Dems will try to paint the Right as being pro-Putin
They won’t mention that Team Soetero/CornPop gave Ukraine MREs and blankets.
Pres Trump gave them Javelins, that they seem to be using, quite effectively and his stance with NATO is forcing those countries to step up rather than hide behind a US Armored or Infantry Division
Exactly. Brother, you get it. Keep pounding. The future of MAGA is in the balance and many don’t want to hear that.
Putin's "Mein Kampf"
Biden not only underestimated Putin (brilliant question by Doocy), he didn’t have a clue to begin with to even make an estimation of anyone. Putin underestimated the Ukranian will to fight. Now, he will have to kill a lot more of them (and he will) and perhaps even just about completely depopulate the Ukraine of Ukranians and move in Russians. If he doesn’t do that, he will have a permanent boil on his forehead from the hatred he will have created. Some problems are never solved, really.
Why? Has Ukraine attacked Russia? If so, when?
Including using his troops as cannon fodder?
Fog and Magog
“Reconquista”.
Or maybe the “filibustering” that US citizens did on the periphery of the early United States of America in Spanish-held Florida, and Mexican-Texas.
Another analogy is that Putin is playing the parts of both Kaiser Wilhelm I and his chief minister Otto Von Bismark. He’s building Russia by picking a series of international fights on the borders.
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