COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review (11 Feb 2022)

CDC ^ | 11 Feb 2022 | CDC

[BeauBo]

Daily New Cases: As of February 9, 2022, the current 7-day moving average (215,418) decreased 42.8% compared with the previous weekly report.

Variants: CDC estimates the national proportion of Omicron to be approximately 100%. The BA.2 lineage (sub-variant of Omicron) is projected to be 3.6%.

New Hospitalizations: The 7-day daily average for February 2–February 8, 2022, was 12,099. This is a 25.4% decrease from the prior.

Deaths: The 7-day moving average (2,313) has decreased 5.9% compared with the previous weekly report.

Test Positivity Rate: The 7-day average (from NAATs) is down to 12.7% (down 21.0% from the prior).

Vaccination: 75.9% of the total US population has had at least one dose of vaccine (64.4% fully vaccinated). 87.5% of American adults have had at least one dose of vaccine (74.6% fully vaccinated). Half of those eligible have received boosters (over 90 million).

[BeauBo]

Cases and hospitalizations continue to plummet, and all States in the USA show declining case numbers. Nationally, cases are down almost 80% from the peak on 13 January (as of the 11 Feb daily report). Deaths appear to have decisively passed the peak of this wave as well, with the now stabilized (historical) 7 day average showing a peak in the National total on 26 January.

The Delta variant is withering away, with Omicron now approximately 100% of new cases. The more infectious BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron continues growing its proportion among the new cases, about doubling from last week (to 3.6% of the total). BA.2 is expected to become the dominant strain, as it has elsewhere, but it will likely just drag out the tail of this wave marginally, rather than make a significant change to the trajectory. It does not appear to be any more severe than the original Omicron. The whole COVID-19 thing is fading into the background quickly.

New Cases continued their accelerating decline last week (in percentage terms). State and Local curves have varied shapes, due to their population densities, and varying levels of immunity from prior waves and vaccination, but COVID is now heading downward everywhere in the USA. We will soon see how the back side of the curves shape up, as COVID sputters out in time for Spring blossoms, and the end of cold and flu season. I'd expect the rate of decline in the tail to taper off over the next few weeks, down to a rate lower than the beginning of this Omicron wave.

New Hospitalizations are hitting the steep decline part of the curve at the National level. The next couple of weeks should see COVID wards start emptying out in earnest. Some of the earlier places, like Maryland, already have.

Deaths now seem to have peaked decisively at the National level (26 Jan), but so far the decline has just been a moderate few percentage points. The roller coaster drop in fatalities seems to be approaching however, in the next couple of weeks.

Vaccines and boosters continue to show significant protection from infection, hospitalization and death; through the early part of the Omicron wave in December. Breakouts by age group can be found here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status

[Magnum44]

The write-up talks about the waves of Original vs Delta variant vs Omicron variant vs BA.2 COVID, yet the plots just show overall COVID. If its not broken out it might as well just say FLU. I doubt they really have good breakout data on the variants and believe they are extrapolating from a relatively small data set where they could genetically differentiate between them.

Its pure coincidence that it looks like everything is on the decline just in time for election season...

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Looks like Brandon has saved us all! *SPIT*

Glad to see this, of course. Sad that our CHEATER prez will take the credit.

Any chance you could look at other data for the last few bad flu bugs we’ve had and compare trajectories and why THIS one lasted so much longer than others? Say, compared to when 0bama was in charge? *SMIRK*

Other than the Enemy Media NOT reporting on it 24/7?

What a waste of time and money these past two years have been! What a stupid way to run a country.

[BeauBo]

COVID cases are down everywhere, COVID wards are starting to empty out significantly in the early areas, and deaths have passed peak at the level of the National totals.

Delta continues to decline in percentage terms. CDC now rounds out Omicron’s estimated percentage to 100% of new cases. The more infectious BA.2 sub-lineage of Omicron is growing its percentage (about doubling to 3.6% on this week’s report), and is expected to become dominant here, as it has in Denmark and elsewhere - but not significantly effect the overall outlook or treatment. Although more infectious, it is not more severe - just Omicron in a hurry.

A growing slice of a rapidly shrinking pie.

[BeauBo]

“I doubt they really have good breakout data on the variants and believe they are extrapolating from a relatively small data set where they could genetically differentiate between them.”

Yes, that is true. Out of the hundreds of thousands of positive tests each day, around 5 to 10 thousand get sequenced to identify the variant. Additionally, there are probably 5 to 10 actual new exposures, for every positive test - and this country is so large and diverse, that different areas are significantly different, at any point in time. From a statistical point of view though, sample sizes of 5-10 thousand are pretty good estimators.

[zek157]

Has the feeling that you have been both had and taken advantage of settled in as the vax narrative collapses?

https://www.rintrah.nl/important-when-you-get-vaccinated-you-lose-your-natural-immunity/

Just wondering, not that I particularly care.

[dkGba]

Of course they don’t. Routine testing for variants is simply not done. Very few samples are selected for variant testing. Like rest of it- no way to discern truth- they go by what they find in sewer water (and I would venture to guess you could pretty much find whatever you want to find in sewer water) and supposition.

[zek157]

Sorry, I shouldn’t say I don’t care. It was an unsettling period of time for me over the last several months as the mandates were pushed.

Hard to forgive and impossible to forget.

[BeauBo]

“Sad that our CHEATER prez will take the credit.”

That seems to be the reason that they delayed the State of the Union Address until March - to try to claim credit.

If it was possible to screw things up worse, I have faith that this fruitcake would have done it - he screws up everything he touches. It is almost like magic. But COVID is just burning out naturally, as pandemics do, despite his incompetent fumbling.

After the whole thing is over, we should receive the (literally) billion test kits he ordered from China. Perhaps they can be shipped directly to landfills, to save on the warehousing costs...

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

The American people are smart enough to KNOW this is about the elections coming up, the utter sheep may not be smart enough HOWEVER they a very few!! They are the VERY FEW that still believe Biden is doing a wonderful job, you can’t fix stupid, you can’t give people common sense THAT IS WHY they are sheep!!!

[BeauBo]

“Has the feeling that you have been both had and taken advantage of settled in as the vax narrative collapses?”

Truthfully, I view the vaccines to have been a significant net positive, from a public health perspective.

I know that people feel strongly opposed to them, but I don’t believe that the side effects are markedly outside of the normal range for vaccinations generally. The tradeoffs (to me) seem (generally) strongly in favor in vaccination of the elderly, but not for children.

I have been alienated by some anti-vaccine theories that I found to clearly absurd, and by overly emotional personal assaults by some opposed to the vaccines. They have lost credibility with me. I no longer bother even read posts, when I see the Daily Expose, or some such source posted. They have been thoroughly discredited in my view, consistently crying wolf.

I have never supported the mandates.

[ColoCdn]

This is a serious question and I’m anti-mandate, not anti-vaxx.

With the CDC jettisoning the PCR test the first week of January, saying that it could not differentiate between the flu and covid, what in these statistics would lead anyone to believe that they’re even marginally accurate?

How are the cases being differentiated from the flu?

Are the mortality numbers modified to reflect the CDC’s own admission that only 6% of the deceased are dead because of covid only?

If not, why not and when will they?

[heavy metal]

biden proved the kung flu is a scam when he opened our southern border and spread over 2 million nondocumented unvaccinated invaders across our country during a supposed “global pandemic” while the centers for disease control (cdc) and world health organization (who) silently sit back and watch...

[zek157]

Is this more crying “Wolf”? Certainly would have interesting implications for you and yours.

mRNA vaccine dangers
A preprint in Cell finds vaccine-driven original antigenic sin is deeply powerful. Also: vaccine-generated spike protein circulates in the blood and vaccine mRNA persists for months in lymph nodes.

Alex Berenson
Feb 8

mRNA from the Pfizer and Moderna shots can be found in lymph nodes for at least 60 days after injection.

Free-floating spike proteins circulate at high levels in the blood after vaccination.

Vaccinated people infected with variants of Sars-Cov-2 produce antibodies biased toward the original and now extinct variant - rather than the one that has actually infected them.

Findings from a preprint in Cell, among the world’s leading scientific journals. Almost 50 researchers worldwide collaborated on the work, which Cell released online two weeks ago.

The preprint has received little attention, possibly because it discusses the potential implications of its findings only obliquely. In discussing the fact that the mRNA hamper the immune response to new variants, the researchers offer extra doses as a potential solution, for example:

Additional booster doses may be able to compensate for relatively decreased binding to new viral variant antigens, potentially decreasing the public health impact of antibody response imprinting.

Nonetheless, the preprint’s findings destroy comforting fictions about the mRNA shots, including that the body quickly destroys the genetic material in the jabs - as Reuters and other “fact-checkers” have long insisted.

In fact, researchers found vaccine mRNA in the germinal centers of lymph nodes for 60 days after the shots (as long as they checked).

The germinal centers play a crucial role in the immune system, where B-cells - which help produce long-term immunity - mature and learn to make antibodies to infection more efficiently.

The researchers also reported finding vaccine mRNA outside the germinal centers, though rarely.

The mRNA shots cause the body to make huge amounts of spike protein. Vaccine advocates have generally argued that those proteins remain bound to the cells where they were produced.

But the researchers also said they had found spike protein in the blood following mRNA shots at levels as high as those produced by coronavirus infection itself:

At least some portion of spike antigen generated after administration of BNT162b2 becomes distributed into the blood. We detected spike antigen in 96% of vaccinees in plasma collected one to two days after the prime injection, with antigen levels reaching as high as 174 pg/mL. The range of spike antigen concentrations in the blood of vaccinees at this early time point largely overlaps with the range of spike antigen concentrations reported in plasma in a study of acute infection.

Aside from that, everything is fine and we have nothing to worry about.

[BeauBo]

“Is this more crying “Wolf”?”

In my humble opinion, yes, it is. The authors of the study do not raise cautions or concerns about the vaccines. In fact, they state “our findings lead to the prediction that antibodies derived from infection may provide somewhat decreased protection against virus variants compared with comparable concentrations of antibodies stimulated by vaccination.” (greater effectiveness against new variants) They also point out mechanisms whereby natural infection inflicts some damage that the vaccines do not (greater safety). They raised no new safety concern with the vaccines - quite the contrary.

“vaccine-driven original antigenic sin” is a hyperbolic mis-characterization of what is actually in the Cell article being discussed.

Yes, mRNA vaccines induce circulating spike proteins, and the development of antigens that target them. That is no surprise. That is what they are designed to do. That is what makes them effective.

Yes there are differences in the degree, type and duration of immune response from the different vaccines; and natural infections of different variants at different levels of severity. This detailed and extensive study documents and quantifies those to a great degree.

Yes, vaccines developed for the original strain result in a lot of antigen targeted against the original strain being produced, when infected by a different strain. That is not a bad thing - certainly not a “sin”. Those antigens are effective against the other variants, just not as effective as one specifically created for invading variant. Having a lot of antigens quickly produced against the original variant slows down the infection (and might totally defeat it), while the body is ramping up production of the new antigen. It does not hamper the body from producing new antigens against the new variant.

The net result can be seen in practice. Those who were vaccinated show a very significantly lower rate of hospitalization or death, as compared to equivalent (age, co-morbidity) unvaccinated people - in every country around the world.

It took a long time to wade through this long and dense article, only to find what I have found time and time again - that a small group of alarmists (like Berenson, Malone, Kennedy, the Daily Expose) just blow a lot of smoke, with hypotheticals and suggestive mis-characterizations to scare people.

There was no “there” there. The vaccines were shown to work as designed, and to work well.