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Addressing the Demographic Time Bomb of Declining Birth Rates
https://nationalinterest.org ^ | 2/4/2022 | by Thomas A. Hemphill

Posted on 02/05/2022 1:35:35 PM PST by RomanSoldier19

n May 2021, the National Center for Health Statistics reported that the total fertility rate was 1,637.5 births per 1,000 American women (or 1.64 births per American woman) in 2020, another U.S. record low. This birth rate is approximately 21 percent lower than the commonly recognized replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman (proposed in 1929 by American demographer Warren Thompson as a component of his four-stage demographic transition model). The replacement level fertility rate is the fertility rate a nation needs to stabilize the population. If the replacement level fertility rate declines below 2.1 births, as the population ages and declines, this scenario allegedly results in reduced economic growth and government program financing, fueled by fewer employees available to work, pay taxes, and finance government social insurance programs.

Is the declining fertility rate unique to the United States? No. According to World Bank data for 2019, most of the economically developed world is following America’s fertility trend. For example, in 2019, the European Union averaged 1.5 births per woman. North America is averaging 1.7 births per woman, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries are averaging 1.7 births per woman. In the Pacific region, Australia is averaging 1.7 births per woman, China 1.7 births per woman, Japan 1.4 births per woman, New Zealand 1.7 births per woman, and South Korea 0.9 births per woman for 2019. In many cases, rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman have existed for the past two or more decades. While some demographers are questioning the importance of maintaining a replacement level fertility rate, many developed and rapidly developing country governments are taking this decline seriously.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalinterest.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: stunning
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1 posted on 02/05/2022 1:35:35 PM PST by RomanSoldier19
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To: RomanSoldier19

I keep saying the human race is doomed.


2 posted on 02/05/2022 1:39:10 PM PST by Scarlett156 (Someone with "comedian" on his social media profile is invariably a self-hating sadistic loser.)
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To: RomanSoldier19

I thought overpopulation was the Demographic Time Bomb.


3 posted on 02/05/2022 1:40:00 PM PST by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
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To: RomanSoldier19

The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization Paperback – October 15, 2002
by Patrick J. Buchanan

https://www.amazon.com/Death-West-Populations-Immigrant-Civilization/dp/0312302592


4 posted on 02/05/2022 1:41:10 PM PST by janetjanet998 (ev)
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To: RomanSoldier19

The Hungarians have been somewhat successful at addressing this problem. It would be politically incorrect to do it here.

Hungary’s Birth Rate Highest in Nearly Three Decades Thanks to Viktor Orbán’s Pro-Family Policies
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/4027404/posts


5 posted on 02/05/2022 1:42:40 PM PST by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: RomanSoldier19

Wait till you see the post vax birth rate. Gonna need those Chinese birthing pods to get busy.


6 posted on 02/05/2022 1:43:50 PM PST by BusterDog
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To: FreedomPoster

Russia is starting too


7 posted on 02/05/2022 1:43:55 PM PST by Chickensoup ( Leftists totalitarian fascists are eradicating conservatives)
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To: RomanSoldier19

We need more immigrants here in good ‘old USA. If we’re not doing that, then we’ll need to get rid of the entitlements. That will never happen. So we’ll get more immigrants.


8 posted on 02/05/2022 1:44:59 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: RomanSoldier19

Libtards aren’t having kids. Girl power, you know?


9 posted on 02/05/2022 1:46:44 PM PST by imabadboy99
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To: RomanSoldier19

Well since men can now get pregnant (according to what we are told), they should be able to quickly make up for the declining female birthing rates


10 posted on 02/05/2022 1:47:42 PM PST by SamAdams76 (I am 24 days away from outliving John Hughes)
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To: RomanSoldier19
If the replacement level fertility rate declines below 2.1 births, as the population ages and declines.

BS, they forgot to factor for open borders. Our population is in no way declining. Its just being replaced by compliant new immigrants.

The fun part is that compliant new immigrants don't like their BS either.

11 posted on 02/05/2022 1:49:03 PM PST by usurper
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To: RomanSoldier19

Many of our social ills are caused by overcrowding, urban congestion, air and water degradation, etc. As a theoretical proposition, we can support a considerably higher population. But why should we want to? What advantage is gained by the U.S. doubling in population every 40-50 years? We are coming apart at the seams now. Turning the U.S. into a global commons won’t help.

A substantially lower global population would relieve pressures on many fronts. If nothing else, perhaps we would be relieved of the burden of hundreds of millions of desperate people trying to immigrate to the U.S. and Europe.

How to manage population decline is the tricky question.

The biggest problem is, of course, the cancer of big government. Our social safety nets are Ponzi schemes. We have many trillions in unfunded liabilities that can’t be funded as it is, let alone with a declining population base.

Open borders liberals aren’t just intent on eradicating America as we knew it, though that’s a factor. They are also trying to keep the Ponzi schemes afloat. Angela Merkel was at least honest about this. Our politicians still lie about it.

Our politicians will destroy the country before they will face up to the need for entitlement reform.


12 posted on 02/05/2022 1:56:39 PM PST by sphinx
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To: sphinx

The same people who claim to be environmentalists have no problem with illegals trashing the environment and leaving trails of trash on their journeys. They have no problem with immigrants and illegals overcrowding our cities and highways and they have no problem with the extra pollution from the millions of immigrants. Maybe they dont’ really care about the environment after all. It was all a ruse.


13 posted on 02/05/2022 2:00:40 PM PST by imabadboy99
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To: RomanSoldier19

The current fertility rate for Mexico in 2022 is 2.050 births per woman, a 1.06% decline from 2021.

The fertility rate for Mexico in 2021 was 2.072 births per woman, a 1.1% decline from 2020.

The fertility rate for Mexico in 2020 was 2.095 births per woman, a 1.04% decline from 2019.

The fertility rate for Mexico in 2019 was 2.117 births per woman, a 1.07% decline from 2018.


14 posted on 02/05/2022 2:05:05 PM PST by TexasGator (UF)
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To: RomanSoldier19

India,China, South of he Border and Africa will fill in the gaps!!!


15 posted on 02/05/2022 2:11:27 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: SamAdams76
--- "Well since men can now get pregnant (according to what we are told), they should be able to quickly make up for the declining female birthing rates"

Heck, since the Lefties can't even define what a "woman" is in order to define their beloved "transwoman," they will be flummoxed by this.

16 posted on 02/05/2022 2:14:01 PM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time
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To: RomanSoldier19

The plan was always to stink up the nest and discourage breeding. The problem is, it works best where it’s least needed.

It’s most needed someplace like Nigeria, but take a Streetview tour of Lagos, particularly around the edges. Tell me how anyone could further stink up Lagos to any noticeable extent. Literally open sewers and streets made impassable with trash because there is no garbage collection. Or any large city in Pakistan for that matter.

Their demographic time bomb explodes, but ours implodes.


17 posted on 02/05/2022 2:14:03 PM PST by JustaTech (A mind is a terrible thing)
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To: TexasGator

Are they having them in U.S. and not Mexico?


18 posted on 02/05/2022 2:16:57 PM PST by WHATNEXT?
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To: WHATNEXT?

“Are they having them in U.S. and not Mexico?”

I bet Mexican birthrate in US is much higher.


19 posted on 02/05/2022 2:32:13 PM PST by TexasGator (UF)
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To: sphinx

IBTZ troll.


20 posted on 02/05/2022 2:41:31 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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