Posted on 01/28/2022 7:15:10 AM PST by Presbyterian Reporter
January Barometer The idea of the January barometer is this: If the Standard & Poor's 500 market index ends January higher than it started, the rest of the year will follow suit. This prediction has been correct 34 out of 38 times since January 1950. Christine Hauser cited this fact in a January 2012 article in "The New York Times." A good start in January may mean investors are ready to get into the market, which will cause it to climb. Not everyone buys into this idea, including Lu. He said the historical observations are interesting, but unreliable.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.zacks.com ...
The Standard & Poor's 500 market index ended December 31, 2021 at 4766.
Today the Standard & Poor's 500 market index is currently at 4319.
It will be difficult for the Standard & Poor's 500 market index to gain 450 points in the last two trading days of January 2022
Worst January in many years.
BlackRock, Buffett, Soros, Gates et all will do the best they can to put some lipstick on this pig all the way to November.
The one thing (other than Russia/Ukraine & China/Taiwan) that would tank the market would be tax increases. Which I also doubt will happen this year.
Try BEING retired. Good times. Fortunately, I've been in the markets long enough to have somewhat expected this based on the absolutely "foofy" valuations we had in 21 and 22 that was largely a result of all the Fed pumping - although I'll admit I didn't expect it to happen this early in the year.
FWIW, I'm increasingly learning the importance of "risk management" when it comes to portfolios. It's important to not get caught up in the groupthink of "buy and hold forever", as that is IMHO not going to work going forward. Market's have changed way too much compared to ~30-40 years ago when that DID work.
Here is a much more accurate predictor of bull and bear markets. When there is a Republican sweep election like 1994 or 2010, the market goes way up. When there is a democrat sweep election like 2008, the market goes way down. The effect generally begins several months before the election, based on expectations about which way the election will go.
Back in 2020, when Trump was still Preesidet, I was planning on retiring this year. Now I am planning on working until I die.
Thanks for posting. You got very few comments because the title doesn’t sound panic-stricken, predict the end of the world and there aren’t any exclamation points!!!!!!!
Thanks for the comment. I posted the story to inform FReepers of the long standing January Effect as one signal all investors should be aware of.
Buy and hold is not the same thing as it sounds, I reallocate my holdings every December. Seems like a good way to play buy and hold.
I’m liquidating my my IRA and putting the money into my own business. At least there, I have some control over it.
That
We've decided to get out of the market altogether. Chuckster retired in '07. Survived the ups and downs; actually made money in '08. But the landscape has changed Since he first started trading in the nineties.
We now have a thriving small business in Alaska. We'll bet on ourselves. All in. Keeping a couple if years worth of expenses in gold and silver, just in case.
Like many you have been fortunate to live during a market often in bull market territory.
“ If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1987, you would have about $3,822.45 at the beginning of 2022, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 3,722.45%, or 10.97% per year.”
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