Posted on 01/06/2022 11:29:46 AM PST by RomanSoldier19
Destroying the world’s major semiconductor market might be more of an invasion deterrent than actual open conflict, military paper suggests;
Taiwan should adopt a ‘scorched earth policy’ and wipe out its own semiconductor foundries in the wake of any Chinese invasion as a deterrent, US military academics have suggested.
First spotted by Nikkei, a paper in the US Army War College’s quarterly academic journal Parameters suggests the US and Taiwan can detour Chinese invasion of the island by creating a ‘deterrence by punishment approach via a legitimate and credible threat' to destroy the country’s own chip fabs if invaded.
The authors argue that in the face of China’s growing military power & sophistication, threats or demonstrations from US military are unlikely to work, and any actual conflict on the island may actually be won by the People’s Republic of China.
Instead, the paper, Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan, suggests a “broken nest” approach wherein Taiwan destroys its own semiconductor industry – including global chip powerhouse TSMC – upon the news of any invasion from China to make it a less attractive target and scupper China’s own technology ambitions.
(Excerpt) Read more at datacenterdynamics.com ...
Mutually assured destruction works every time.
Political considerations come first to communists, economic considerations are secondary.
This to be the most effeminate geopolitical policy position ever recommended.
Trump got Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to agree to build a manufacturing plant in Arizona in light of the Chinese invasion threat. I wonder if the Xao Bai-Ding regime has stonewalled it?
As a matter of “face”, any invasion will be completed.
seems plausible and acceptable. It’s a small island and not difficult to destroy assets. Unlike the end of WW2 in germany where there are just too many Nazi stuff to destroy that the Allies just got what they wanted.
DETER?.....................
NHK Japan recently announce that TSMC is building a huge plant there.
I would much rather China control the entire digital landscape.
They are our friends and will only use it for good.
China’s motivation is NOT grabbing semiconductor factories. I think everyone realizes that these are both capital and intellectual intensive industries, which would likely be damaged (or sabotaged) during a war, managers and technicians would scatter, and there would be an embargo on parts and equipment.
China’s motivation for grabbing Taiwan has always been ideological and historical - That Taiwan belongs to China is propagandized into every Chinese citizen, every day.
There’s also some strategic benefit, in that China’s Navy/submarines is also hemmed-in by US Bases and allies in shallow water operating areas. At present, its difficult/impossible for them to get into deep-water without being constrained and detected
Most of the Nazi stuff was left standing because the U.S. wanted it that way. I believe the Ford Motor Company was churning new vehicles out of plants in Nazi Germany throughout World War II.
That would be great. I would like to see a US plant, but under Xao Bai-Ding regime that might be the same as surrendering to china.
Does China REALLY care about factories or any other buildings?
They can put up a factory in a week.
They want that Land and those people under their control. And have since the split. Long before there were any factories.
China plays the long game.
If China had to raze the whole island and kill every single person. They would still do it and just start from 0 and repopulate with mainlanders.
No /s tag required.
Nah, they’re going to put up signs in the ocean saying “Detour -—>” and pointing the Chinese navy towards Japan.
They won’t do it. In their view, at least they would have jobs should they fail to hold off an invasion. Plus, they would also at least be able to speak the invaders’ language.
And hey, it’s not enough for them to declare independence as a country. But they’re more than willing to have Americans fight and die for their hegemony over the region.
Yes. That is why in case of invasion, the Republic of China should level the Three Gorges Dam as Strategic Target #1.
You think that because you probably have no clue what this means. Destroying these chip foundries would result in many hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and no guarantee of recovery. The chip foundries are what makes Taiwan so attractive as a target. Remove the foundries and there is nothing there that cannot be found elsewhere.
As a note, a modern chip foundry costs upwards of 30 billion dollars to build and requires a minimum of 5 years to do so. Destroying these foundries would result in a world-wide depression just based on all the electronic devices that use them> Cars, boats, guidance systems, radar, sonar, etc. consumer products like televisions, refrigerators, microwaves, dishwashers, and obviously computers. TSMC is the largest foundry at this time by a long shot, is based in Taiwan, and they are currently building additional foundries because they cannot meet demand. So, imagine having so much demand that you invest >100 billion dollars into building out new facilities to help you meet that demand.
In other words, your assessment is entirely wrong. This is a policy that has teeth on the level of nuclear weapons and the worldwide impact would be devastating.
“Political considerations come first to communists, economic considerations are secondary.”
Yes, you’re correct. But expending blood and treasure to capture what they see as a golden prize might cause severe political costs if that prize is taken from them. Whoever orders the assault will have political enemies who can leverage that loss against him.
My feeling is, if Taiwan is about to fall and they haven’t destroyed those plants then we need to do it for them. Those plants control a huge amount of the world’s supply, and it would be akin to, and actually worse than, losing the Middle East’s oil supply as far as impact goes. I can tell you from working in the defense industry, if those plants fall into Chinese control, then probably 60-80 percent of our hardware will be unreplaceable*. It will take the US ten years to recover from the loss. But that loss would be doubly bad if those plants fall into the CCP’s hands.
* We were not supposed to use IC’s that were sourced overseas. The edict was universally ignored because those IC’s can’t be sourced at home.
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