Relative vs Absolute Risk Reduction

Rumble ^ | 10/27/2021 | CanadianCovidCareAlliance

[ptsal]

Rumble — Pfizer reported that its vaccine shows a 95% efficacy. That sounds like it protects you 95% of the time. But that's not what that number actually means. That is the relative risk reduction which does NOT tell you what your overall risk is reduced by vaccination. For that number, we need to look at absolute risk reduction.

Time only 118 seconds of pure information!

[ptsal]

This video explains the difference and why it's important to understand.

Archived link: https://archive.md/tJduj

[ptsal]

Statistics explained in 118 seconds (1 minute and 58 seconds).

[rlmorel]

Thank you for posting that, it was an excellent explanation.

I do not have a degree in statistics, but know a little about them, and have worked for many years providing statistical data to people, so I see both the intentional abuses and unintentional pitfalls.

This 95% is, to me, an intentional abuse. They knew full well that it was misleading, yet use it anyway.

[meowmeow]

Bfl! My favorite subject!

[rlmorel]

The other issue surrounding this virus is the complete lack of a comprehensive and rational risk vs. benefit assessment.

The whole thing-and I mean the ENTIRE thing has been driven by emotion and politics, not "science" as the Left tries to maintain. (Yes, the same people who say XX chromosomes are not female, and XY chromosomes are not male)

Personally, I think this environment we live in where risk and harm is infantilized to the point that Leftists want to enclose people from birth to death in a legislative, government constructed protective bubble is insane.

Bill Whittle has made a superb video at this link, oddly titled:

Three and A Half Feet: The Secret to a High Flying, Deep Diving Life of Adventure.

The title makes absolute sense when you understand the context.

[Auntie Mame]

That was a fantastic talk by Bill Whittle. Thank you!

[rlmorel]

You are most welcome.

I have been thinking for some time about starting a thread about this concept-that we are becoming far weaker (IMO) as a nation because of this...worthless desire for nobody to get physically or mentally uncomfortable or hurt in any way, and...

That isn’t how real life works. That was why I enjoyed that video-giving all of us a 3 1/2 foot deep pool to live our lives in, which is what the Left wants to do...isn’t helping anyone, and is hurting us.

[DoodleBob]

I agree, that the placebo infection rate of 89 basis points is pretty small.

But, the definition of Vaccine Efficacy (VE) being a percentage difference between rates, isn't some Globalist plot. It's been that way for a long time.

[rlmorel]

That may be true, but...they are using that terminology to communicate to people, of whom I am certain 99%+ do NOT know the difference and assume that 95% figure thrown out means something completely different.

And I think the people throwing that number out there fully know that.

My feeling on this matter is, if I said to people that if you are in the 50-59 year old range that your odds of dying of COVID (as illustrated below) are similar to the odds of being hit and killed by a car as you walk down the road, how many people would think it was a good idea to put our country through these mandated vaccinations, societal upheavals and divisions, bankruptcies of business, and destruction of the economy and that of future generations?

Not many, I will wager. And that is the biggest issue I have with all of this. People have been intentionally misled as to the real danger of this virus (which CAN be dangerous to certain people) but it is NOT smallpox of bubonic plague. There has been no serious risk assessment on this virus, and the entire thing has been driven by emotion and politics.

That was why I view askance the way this has been presented to the public.

[DoodleBob]

And I think the people throwing that number out there fully know that.

"The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."

Early on in the pandemic, on FR, I had several discussions on things about which I had about 2 days of experience...case fatality rates, R₀, the definition of a case, just what is a coronavirus, and so on. Because debate on FR is like a demolition derby, I had to come up to speed very fast. Much of my initial understanding was right. Some of it was off, and I quickly corrected. Between February-April 2020, we ALL climbed a very steep learning curve, with some scarring. But we climbed that curve.

Lying is as old as Eden. The best safeguard against lying is learning. I learned very early on, that if I was going to keep my head above water, that I needed to subscribe to nully's BOYD ping list, read DoughtyOne's most excellent daily statistical posts, and even I got into the act with daily posts on size-adjusted fatality rates indexed to each municipality's 1,000th adjusted fatality as Day 1.

I suspect all of us, have read more articles out of the Lancet, Science, NEJM, and countless other journals in the past two years than all other years combined. It has not all been for nothing, because Lies, Inc. has been running overtime.

I do not doubt your thesis, that the Powers That Be are intentionally pitching VE as something greater than it is - shame on them. And I also acknowledge, that we are all smart and know right from wrong but not everyone has an advanced degree in biostatistics.

But recall Johnny Rotten's words: "‘Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?" That's been the state of play for about 2 years. I would not blame the victims of this VE bastardization, but we all have a responsibility to do our homework so that we can't get snowed.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for this post, and the post above with the relative
risk rates per age group.

This thing doesn’t pan out to be what they stated it to be.

In 2020 a miracle happened. No one died of the flu. Nope
the only people who died, died of COVID-19.

This year a family member told me they got the flu shot in
one arm, and the COVID-19 booster in the other.

Why get the flu shot at all. No one is dying from that
according to the authorities.

Then there is another fact, they urged folks to get a
booster shot now, because Omicron was coming. Well
wouldn’t it be better to wait until a booster for it
was available? Well no... and they wanted us to buy
into that.

Just plain old logic doesn’t support what they have been
doing.

Omicron is a watered down threat, probably no more (or
even perhaps less) of a threat than the traditional
seasonable flu. None the less, be sure to get a booster or die...

[rlmorel]

Very good post.

You said: "...and I also acknowledge, that we are all smart and know right from wrong but not everyone has an advanced degree in biostatistics..."

That is a key observation, and one that is leveraged by those who wish to deceive people both in and out of government and Media.

We live in a time where information is sprayed into your face with the force and volume of a fire hose and only the most undaunted can attempt to make heads or tails out of it, as you and others do.

The fact is, we are dealing with entities such as the Government, Media and Big Tech who are enemies of this Republic who fully understand that issue of information handling and processing that responsible citizens try to address, and who do all in their power to exacerbate the problem to their advantage and our detriment.

Google, which is the default repository of knowledge for the billions of human beings (I have heard that 4 billion people use a computer to access the Internet every day) makes no bones about its efforts to shape the content of information they deliver to people who query it, and they do it not just to make money which is its job, but to execute its ideological agenda and, even far more disturbing, to shape the behavior and values of humans who get information from them.

These are two videos that bear on this:

• Bill Whittle: Stoners and Reptiles-The Stolen Election Part 2 (Link takes you right to the discussion of Google, but the whole video is outstanding)
  
  
• LEAKED VIDEO FROM GOOGLE:The Selfish Ledger (which the video above discusses)

I find that downright frightening, and that is not hyperbole.

We have ceded to Google nearly universal control over the storage and dissemination of information to billions of computer using human beings, and they openly say they wish to use it to change the values of humans to mirror not those in the Bible, not those in the US Constitution, and not even those of any government.

They want to shape your values to mirror those of...Google.

I am not saying this, which sounds nearly absurd coming out of my mouth. THEY say it in the videos above. And they are doing this in concert with the single most authoritarian government on the face of the earth today (Communist China) and Leftist elements from other countries including our own.

That should make every thinking, freedom-loving person blanch.