Posted on 11/12/2021 5:15:38 AM PST by Kaslin
As in the 1880s, we live in an era of polarized partisan parity, in which changes of opinion among independent voters can sweep election results. One year ago, Joe Biden was elected president with 51% of the popular vote. Now, with his job approval down to 42%, his party is in trouble.
That's obvious from Republican Glenn Youngkin's 51-49 victory for governor in Virginia, which Biden won by 10% in 2020, and Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy's reelection by only 51-49 in New Jersey, which had been +16% for Biden. It's obvious also that, barring an upward shift in public opinion, Democrats will surely lose their narrow House majority in the House and likely lose their current 50-50 parity in the Senate.
Historic precedents abound. Presidents' parties almost always lose House seats in midterm elections for structural reasons. Presidents' parties have gained House seats only three times in the past century (1934, 1998, 2002), all when incumbent presidents had unusually high job approval.
There are structural reasons for this. In an always diverse nation, presidents are only elected by amassing large coalitions with divergent views. Once in office, their actions and goals inevitably displease some previous supporters.
During midterms, members of the president's party are stuck with the president's record. That can hurt, even in governor's races in times of strong partisan polarization. The opposition party, in contrast, has choice of terrain.
One example is the Biden Democrats' proposal to increase the deductibility of state and local taxes. This is wildly popular -- politically essential, actually -- for some putatively moderate Democrats in high-tax, high-income places such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California.
But the issue can work for Republicans elsewhere because the lion's share of dollar savings goes to taxpayers earning $500,000 or more. That's a hard sell in places where almost nobody earns that much.
Another historic perspective: Three decades ago, Americans emerged from a long era (1952-92) in which they mostly elected Republican presidents and Democratic Congresses. That often resulted in widely accepted bipartisan legislation since neither party's politicians expected to have total control any time soon.
Since 1994, voters have become both increasingly partisan and more closely divided. So both parties' politicians have reason to shun bipartisan compromise and wait to win a trifecta: the White House and both houses of Congress. When they get one, they push for, and sometimes pass, sweeping legislation, then promptly lose their majorities.
This happened in 1994 after Democrats failed to pass Hillarycare and in 2010 after they passed Obamacare. It happened in 1966 after passage of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society, when Republicans won the House popular vote outside the then-heavily Democratic South. If Biden's approval remains low, it will probably happen again in 2022.
It happened to Republicans in 2018 after passage of the Trump tax package, and it might well have happened in 2002 if George W. Bush's job approval hadn't been so high after 9/11. In any case, Republicans were swept out of control in 2006.
Why have trifectas been repudiated? Partly for the structural reasons already mentioned. And partly because most voters apparently don't want the significant economic and entitlement policies pushed by politicians and policy wonks of both parties.
That's the conclusion one gets from maverick analyst Michael Lind's two articles recommending how each party can win a lasting majority. His advice to both sides is essentially the same: Embrace popular programs such as Social Security and Medicare; reject left or right think tank solutions; avoid avoidable wars.
In other words, voters may be full of complaints and may respond favorably to what I call wouldn't-it-be-great-if-we-had (free child care, free college, zero taxes) poll questions. But most actually don't want severe disruption in a country where most people live in more security and affluence than ever heard of in human history.
Throw in some more issues. Voters don't like rising crime rates. They don't like surges of illegal immigration. History shows they really don't like inflation. They overwhelmingly rejected Democrats amid postwar inflations in 1920 and 1946, and they rejected three consecutive presidents (Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter) in the inflationary 1970s.
Further back in history, they resoundingly rejected the inflationary "free silver" of William Jennings Bryan in 1896. Sympathetic historians note that Bryan swept the then-lightly populated West but lost the previously marginal East and Great Lakes states, with 57% of the nation's voters, to William McKinley by a solid 58% to 40%. All their 216 electoral votes, split between the parties in the five previous elections, went Republican.
Will surges in violent crime, illegal immigration and inflation continue in 2022? If so, that's not good news for the Biden Democrats.
Yeah. Wonderful. Murphy lost NJ. As long as they keep allowing cities to steal elections, nothing will change.
So sick of these pundits pundittiting as if all was right with our broken electoral system.
Anytime gasoline hits over $3/gallon right here on top of the refineries themselves, it’s is a bad omen for the communists.
Let’s Go Brandon!!!
Uh, no, it’s not alright.
This assumes we can protect the integrity of our elections. The message the Democrats are hearing is that they cannot survive free and honest elections. Expect them to respond accordingly as they realize that voter fraud is all they have left.
I just read the comments under the article. These guys are so afraid to discuss what really happened with the election. I guess they’re afraid of losing their jobs?
He's right.
you are correct
The article and many, perhaps most, here believe America is still America and normalcy will return and all will be hunky dory again......
America is lost. There are no United States. Rather there is a coalition of Euro oriented City States that control and govern what was once the lower 48
So long as that condition prevails, there is no America, no freedom, no real capitalism
The only way the Rats will give up power is by force. They’ll go kicking and screaming.
It’s pretty unanimous in the comments that people want pundits to stfu about elections and talk about stolen elections. That should be the only thing they comment on.
Let the left say that Trump’s claims are false. Our side should do nothing but call the elections stolen. All the time.
Barone’s alright but he’s fighting the last war. History buff that he is.
Every single right wing pundit should start off with “illegitimate administration”. What’s so friggen hard about telling the truth?
Poor analysis. Biden didn’t win, he stuffed the ballot box and the GOP rubber stamped it. And e we didn’t lose the house in 2018 because of the Trump tax cut that lit off the economy. We lost it because lyin Ryan refused to fund the wall or repeal Obamacare, and the GOP supported fraudulent Mueller investigation.
Nobody saw a reason to support the republicans. And as usual, there was rampant ballot box stuffing.
We can never assume or rely on mere “history” to always repeat itself. Nothing is a given.
In Georgia brad Raffensperger just has a live telephone town hall to convince people the election was fair. There were local elections a few weeks ago. I’m guessing Republican turnout was much lower than normal.
Repubs must be terrified Georgia conservatives are not going to vote in 2022. They might be right
Today’s journalism is crafting a story that people believe. They’re not fighting with truth, they’re fighting with *drumroll, lights go up* FINELY-CRAFTED FICTION!!
Most of them are young enough that they will still be alive when the 2020 election is finally all sorted out. But luck is on their side, because the average consumer of journalism forgets everything he’s read within six months, anyway.
As long as the Dominion machines are used and the voter fraud continues, Democrats will win elections
That’s why our side needs to say the truth that the elections were, are and will be stolen every single time.
Time to overwhelm them with the truth and stop playing defense.
“Democrats will surely lose their narrow House majority in the House and likely lose their current 50-50 parity in the Senate.”
I believe these experts will be surprise when Schumer, who is holding on to S1, releases it just in time to steal the 2022 and 2024 elections.
100% agree.
Democrats stealing elections is an existential threat to the Republic, period.
Everything else can be managed & eventually corrected, but only if election-stealing is stopped.
PUT FIRST THINGS FIRST.
Election stealers must be exterminated and their presence gone forever
Election stealing is the foremost crime against our Republic and must be punished by swift and certain death
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