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To: SamAdams76
I like your TSM (trailing six month) to TSM approach. It washes out the likely impact of SEASONALITY .

The majority of deaths in most countries can be attributed to causes that feature a distinct seasonal pattern. The figure depicts the relative monthly frequencies of nine selected causes of death in the United States for women and men combined for the years 1959–2014. The reported number of counts in parentheses in the title of each panel is the actual number of deaths.

While the variant spikes in India and the U.K. (if that's what they are...it could also reflect vaxxed people feeling invincible and returning to 3-second hand washing and licking doorknobs etc.) may abate soon, the autumnal equinox will undoubtedly be accompanied by a case/fatality etc uptick.

Why? Viruses gonna virus. Even non-viruses gonna non-virus - even non-airborne killers have seasonality.

Anyone who promotes eradication of the "systematic risk" in a free society as a policy goal is either a fool or a statist (or both). It's like the war on drugs...liberty is destroyed, lives are lost, and Leviathan grows.

A very likely reality, is that this bug will be with us forever - like influenza, it'll be a highly contagious but more fatal (case fatality rate of about 1.8% vs 0.2% for influenza) and seasonal annoyance. When faced with this reality, we should follow the policy prescriptions of a wise FReeper: Quarantine the sick. Protect the vulnerable. Free everyone else.


17 posted on 07/26/2021 6:19:22 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob
Quarantine the sick. Protect the vulnerable. Free everyone else.

That's essentially what I've been saying since around April of last year. But, not nearly so elegantly. I LOVE it !

19 posted on 07/26/2021 6:34:40 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!it)
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