Replies

Due to all the inconsistencies of how deaths are recorded (with regard to cause of death), it might be better to just look at overall deaths in general.

That would filter out all the subjectivity.

For example, how many total deaths (regardless of cause) occurred during the January to June period of 2021? Then do a YOY comparison of January to June 2020 and so forth.

I'm thinking that as a total number, the increase YOY of total deaths will not look so alarming. This would also indicate that deaths attributable to "COVID" are largely offset by a decrease in deaths from other causes.

On an anectodal note, there is a funeral home in my town that I drive by often. It really doesn't look any busier than it ever did in the past. In fact, it's quiet much of the time with an empty parking lot.

The problem has been that Covid is a culling disease. It kills the elderly and sick. So the death numbers probably aren’t radically different from the usual numbers. So far, the vaccine has kept Covid out of the lungs of people who got it but the 85+ crowd has lower vax numbers than the Boomers below them. That may be the current death numbers. Also, the death numbers are people WITH Covid whether it killed them or not.

The paramedic that took my family member to the hospital said he could hear Covid lungs in his sleep because he had heard it so much.

I like your TSM (trailing six month) to TSM approach. It washes out the likely impact of SEASONALITY .

The majority of deaths in most countries can be attributed to causes that feature a distinct seasonal pattern. The figure depicts the relative monthly frequencies of nine selected causes of death in the United States for women and men combined for the years 1959–2014. The reported number of counts in parentheses in the title of each panel is the actual number of deaths.

While the variant spikes in India and the U.K. (if that's what they are...it could also reflect vaxxed people feeling invincible and returning to 3-second hand washing and licking doorknobs etc.) may abate soon, the autumnal equinox will undoubtedly be accompanied by a case/fatality etc uptick.

Why? Viruses gonna virus. Even non-viruses gonna non-virus - even non-airborne killers have seasonality.

Anyone who promotes eradication of the "systematic risk" in a free society as a policy goal is either a fool or a statist (or both). It's like the war on drugs...liberty is destroyed, lives are lost, and Leviathan grows.

A very likely reality, is that this bug will be with us forever - like influenza, it'll be a highly contagious but more fatal (case fatality rate of about 1.8% vs 0.2% for influenza) and seasonal annoyance. When faced with this reality, we should follow the policy prescriptions of a wise FReeper: Quarantine the sick. Protect the vulnerable. Free everyone else.