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The CDC Has Been Dramatically Overstating Outdoor Transmission, According To Epidemiologists
https://dailycaller.com ^ | May 11, 2021 8:32 AM ET | BRIANNA LYMAN

Posted on 05/11/2021 7:10:40 AM PDT by Red Badger

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) exaggerated the rate of outdoor transmission of the coronavirus, according to a report by The New York Times (NYT).

The CDC announced in April that a majority of COVID-19 transmission happens indoors, with “less than 10 percent of documents transmission” occurring outdoors. The NYT, however, reported the number is misleading and is based on a misclassification of how some cases of the virus were spread.

Virologist at the University of St. Andrews Dr. Muge Cevik said the number “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” according to the NYT.

The NYT reports outdoor transmission appears to be less than one percent and could even be lower than 0.1 percent. The transmission that does occur outside is typically a result of crowded spaces, according to the report. The CDC’s claim that COVID-19 transmissions are less than 10% is reportedly “deceiving.”

“There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table,” the NYT reported.

The method the CDC used to come up with 10% figure is reportedly skewed since it is based on a large number of outdoor transmission cases that occurred at construction sites in Singapore. One study cited in the report found that just 95 cases out of 10,926 cases worldwide were instances of outdoor transmission, with all 95 cases coming from construction sites in Singapore.

Another study cited by the NYT found that four out of 103 cases were classified as having occurred from outdoor transmission and all four cases were from Singapore construction sites. The second study did note, however, that “existing evidence supports the wide-held belief that risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is lower outdoors.”

The NYT explains the data from Singapore comes from a government base that does not put construction-site cases in the outdoor transmission category.

“We didn’t classify it according to outdoors or indoors,” spokesman for the Ministry of Health Yap Wei Qiang told the NYT. “It could have been workplace transmission where it happens outdoors at the site, or it could also have happened indoors within the construction site.”

Further, researchers gave a broad definition to ‘outdoor spaces’ that included any space that was a mix of both indoor and outdoor facilities, according to the NYT.

“We had to settle on one classification for building sites,” French researcher and co-author of research analyzed by the NYT told the outlet. “And ultimately decided on a conservative outdoor definition.”

Another study by the Journal of Infection and Public Health only counted two settings as indoors, “mass accommodation and residential facilities.”

It counted “workplace, health care, education, social events, travel, catering, leisure and shopping” as outdoor settings.

At some of the construction sites where COVID-19 transmission occurred in Singapore, the exterior construction for the project was finished prior to the pandemic began, according to the report. Alex Au of advocacy group Transient Workers Count Too told the NYT that since Singapore is warm year-round, many workers, including electricians and plumbers, would have likely held meeting and ate lunch indoors to avoid the heat, contributing to COVID-19 transmission.

Other studies have found the rate of outdoor transmission could be far lower than 10% as well, with a study from Ireland “which seems to have been more precise about the definition of outdoors,” putting outdoor transmission at 0.1 percent, according to the report.

A sign encouraging the use of face coverings in Washington, DC on April 16, 2021. - It's a familiar sight in some US cities like Washington, New York and San Francisco: people walking in the street, riding bikes or sitting in parks with their masks on even when they're far away from others. Certain states, like Maine, have kept in place outdoor mask mandates for hiking trails and beaches, with public - TO GO WITH AFP STORY BY Issam AHMED "Do we need masks outdoors? Experts weigh in " Another study from China found out of 7,324 cases, only one was the result of outdoor transmission.

The CDC later told the NYT the 10% figure is “a conservative estimate from a recent systematic review of peer-reviewed papers,” and that “the data we do have supports the hypothesis that the risk of outdoor transmission is low.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci said in April that it was “common sense” that outdoor transmission of the coronavirus is “minuscule.”

“I think it’s pretty common sense now that outdoor risk is really, really quite low, particularly – I mean, if you are a vaccinated person, wearing a mask outdoors, I mean, obviously, the risk is minuscule,” Fauci said while on ABC’s “This Week.”

A string of studies also recently found that with low outdoor transmission, outdoor mask mandates should be reduced.

The Daily Caller has reached out to the CDC but did not receive a response at the time of publication.


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1 posted on 05/11/2021 7:10:40 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

Right on cue ...https://t.co/dfWBNZ19b2— Consent Factory (@consent_factory) May 9, 2021


2 posted on 05/11/2021 7:12:17 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: Red Badger

The hue and cry over covid vaccination is not necessarily over the vaccination so much as it is over a covid vaccination “passport” and it is not over the vaccination passport so much as it is the passport — government licensing of people, just like your auto license. The goal is digitized, chip implanted registration and control of the entire population.


3 posted on 05/11/2021 7:25:22 AM PDT by odawg
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To: Red Badger; SunkenCiv; Kaslin

Wow.

Less than 100 cases, out of nearly 11,000. Worldwide.
And the CDC turns that into “10%” risk of transmissions are from outdoors activities. Out of “conservative judgement”?

Less than 1% turns into 10%?
And we MUST TRUST these government hacks?


4 posted on 05/11/2021 7:32:53 AM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (Method, motive, and opportunity: No morals, shear madness and hatred by those who cheat.)
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To: Robert A Cook PE

This is no worse than the flu...except for old people and the sick

Most people do not die from the virus..it is just present...

CDC is as useless as the GOP


5 posted on 05/11/2021 7:50:49 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Red Badger

“The NYT, however, reported the number is misleading...”

Right, because doctors and scientists need “fact checking” by journalism majors.


6 posted on 05/11/2021 7:53:00 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: Robert A Cook PE
-- And we MUST TRUST these government hacks? --

They took an oath.

The oath is more powerful than journalistic ethics.

7 posted on 05/11/2021 7:55:11 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Red Badger

I’m sorry, but this is MSM-quality research. So, there is “no documented case from outside.....”. Gimme a break. How do you expect me to believe anything but a controlled study on something like this? A dude walks around outside sans mask and then cuddles with his spouse later that day? Where were the controls?
Respiratory virii like Covid are small enough to fit dozens into a aerosol. An aerosol that can drift hundreds of yards, if not miles. A single aerosol bit can infect. You exhale hundreds of “bits” per breath. The numbers favor mass infection within early days of last year. But, haven’t seen it, have we?


8 posted on 05/11/2021 8:27:17 AM PDT by bobbo666 (Baizuo)
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To: Red Badger

The NY Times (unbelievable, I know) is publishing a lot of very good stuff about the failures of CDC and public health in general recently.


9 posted on 05/11/2021 8:28:45 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice)
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To: Red Badger

Outdoor transmission is idiocy and they have scared uneducated people into wearing masks outside, which is stupid.

They probably did some damn study where they aerosolized some measurable substance in a room and measured it over time and said “Oh, aerosolized pathogens stay in the air this amount of time...” and set everything off that.

I have a personal anecdote about this nonsense...I was walking on a rail trail near my house, and I don’t wear a mask outside, which you probably get from my statement above.

Won’t do it.

So, I am walking on the trail. The wind is probably gusting 15-20 mph, the trees are shaking, and I have my wireless earbuds in which I am having trouble hearing because the wind is interfering with the sound.

I see this woman on a bike coming towards me, and she isn’t wearing a mask. She starts fumbling around in a panic, trying to put her mask on, her bike weaving from side to side, and it occurred to me that she was going to wreck her bike and break her neck to get the mask on...for what?

Any particle of aerosol that might exit my respiratory system and navigate that swirling wind the four feet between us at that split second we pass to somehow land directly in her mouth, nose, or eyes...well...I might name that drop of aerosol “Houdini” if it could accomplish that.

And she was going to break her neck in panic to get her mask on. I don’t know her, she probably isn’t a stupid person, but...they have got people like her so charged with fear and misinformation (Never mind the ones who think they should abide by the CDC guidelines no matter how absurd) that they cannot do a rational risk assessment.


10 posted on 05/11/2021 8:28:56 AM PDT by rlmorel (Leftists are The Droplet of Sewage in a gallon of ultra-pure clean water.)
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To: rlmorel

That’s just like my wife.

She is totally scared and afraid, terrified, of catching the virus......................


11 posted on 05/11/2021 8:31:42 AM PDT by Red Badger (Jesus said there is no marriage in Heaven. That's why they call it Heaven.....................)
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To: Jim Noble

The slow knife is the deadliest................


12 posted on 05/11/2021 8:32:23 AM PDT by Red Badger (Jesus said there is no marriage in Heaven. That's why they call it Heaven.....................)
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To: bobbo666

The only massive infections we have seen is in places where people have been forced to stay indoors!..............


13 posted on 05/11/2021 8:34:06 AM PDT by Red Badger (Jesus said there is no marriage in Heaven. That's why they call it Heaven.....................)
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To: Red Badger

Sigh.

I have a marital difference of opinion on this as well, and she believes in wearing the mask outside and mandatory vaccinations.

I honestly believe that, in her case, it is two things: First, she is a rule follower (I am too, but not absurd rules) and second, she seems more concerned I will get it. She is a sharp and bright woman, but things like this put a divide between us, she clearly isn’t concerned about any political ramifications of COVID BS, it is personal safety thing for her.

When she wants to talk about it, I try to make it clear I am not interested in discussing it. When we go out, in my area, nearly 100% of the people (VBS,Very Blue State) wear masks including her, but...I simply won’t, and I think she has come to terms with it.

I work in a hospital, where I willingly wear it and got vaccinated because in Health Care, that is what I will do even if it only reduces transmission to one person out of a million, because...if I can contribute to even one person not getting sick in my hospital I will do it, because people come here to get better, not to get sick.

And I will wear it into any store or establishment that asks me to. I have the choice of not entering, which I often exercise.

But I WILL NOT WEAR IT OUTSIDE.


14 posted on 05/11/2021 8:40:19 AM PDT by rlmorel (Leftists are The Droplet of Sewage in a gallon of ultra-pure clean water.)
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To: rlmorel

I think women are more susceptible to fear mongering manipulation than men are..................


15 posted on 05/11/2021 8:54:08 AM PDT by Red Badger (Jesus said there is no marriage in Heaven. That's why they call it Heaven.....................)
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To: rlmorel
I was walking on a rail trail near my house, and I don’t wear a mask outside, which you probably get from my statement above

I think the events in Wuhan, Bergamo, and New York City (and perhaps in Manaus, Brazil and New Delhi) are poorly understood, and that outdoor transmission UNDER THOSE CONDITIONS (extreme crowding, very high attack rates, and lots of sick people walking around) is not impossible.

Obviously, treating ten people at a girl's lacrosse game outdoors with a 10 mph steady wind, or you alone on your rail trail, is moronic.

But never say never.

16 posted on 05/11/2021 8:55:58 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice)
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To: Jim Noble

I get that.

I am not saying in any way outdoor transmission is impossible, but it is a function of dosage, strength, and time.


17 posted on 05/11/2021 9:00:07 AM PDT by rlmorel (Leftists are The Droplet of Sewage in a gallon of ultra-pure clean water.)
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To: Red Badger

I think that is true. Not a knock on women, I simply think they are wired differently than men biologically and are more disposed to that.


18 posted on 05/11/2021 9:00:59 AM PDT by rlmorel (Leftists are The Droplet of Sewage in a gallon of ultra-pure clean water.)
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To: Red Badger

So, if I go outside, am I gonna croak and die or not??


19 posted on 05/11/2021 9:01:33 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (Free Will. GOD gives you the choice I accept or reject Him! Choose Him. It depends on you.)
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To: RetiredArmy

You might croak if you are a frog....................


20 posted on 05/11/2021 9:07:02 AM PDT by Red Badger (Jesus said there is no marriage in Heaven. That's why they call it Heaven.....................)
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