Posted on 03/25/2021 6:57:08 AM PDT by janetjanet998
AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...
CORRECTED FOR LABEL POSITIONING ON GRAPHIC
..SUMMARY
A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- INCLUDING THE THREAT OF A FEW LONG-TRACKED, VIOLENT TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. TORNADOES, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ALSO ARE POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
Last WEDS had a high risk..a decent number of tornados but none really super strong (maybe 1 or 2) or long tracked
Will we get lucky again today?
-- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ---
..SYNOPSIS
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED SPEED MAX DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, AND A FORMERLY BASAL TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATTER TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX, AND WILL MOVE TO MO/AR BY 00Z. BY 12Z, THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH LAKE ERIE AND OH. THIS TROUGH WILL PACK THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO YIELD 110-130-KT 250-MB FLOW AND 80-100-KT 500-MB WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH, AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE AREA WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z ACROSS WESTERN AR TO NORTHWESTERN LA, STILL POORLY CONSOLIDATED AROUND AREAS OF RAIN-COOLED AIR. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM NORTHWESTERN LA ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND DEEP SOUTH TX. A "SYNOPTIC" WARM FRONT ARCHED FROM THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN GA. A MARINE WARM FRONT -- DENOTING THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOST FULLY MODIFIED GULF RETURN FLOW/WARM- SECTOR AIR MASS -- WAS DRAWN OVER NORTHERN LA, CENTRAL MS, AND SOUTHWESTERN AL, AND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AR AND SOUTHEASTERN MO TODAY. BY 00Z, THE LOW SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN IL IN THE MVN/BLV AREA, WITH COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN TN, CENTRAL MS, AND SOUTHERN LA. BY 12Z TOMORROW, THE LOW SHOULD REACH WESTERN LAKE ERIE OR ADJOINING SOUTHWESTERN ON, WITH COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PA, THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF WESTERN VA, THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, WESTERN GA, TO THE MOB/PNS VICINITY AND NORTHWESTERN GULF.
ONLY MINOR PERIPHERAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK LINES FOR CONVECTIVE/BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ON THE WEST SIDE, AND ELSEWHERE, UPDATED ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. THE CORE THREAT AREA IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FOR NOW.
..SOUTHEAST TO OHIO VALLEY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND MID-SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE MATURING INTO CYCLIC SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN (SOME STRONG TO VIOLENT). ALSO, SEVERE NONTORNADIC WINDS MAY EXCEED 65 KT LOCALLY, AND SPORADIC LARGE, DAMAGING HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
A RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED LOW-LEVEL WARM SECTOR WITH RICH MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER INLAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MARINE WARM FRONT, WITH A VERY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR PATTERN OVER A BROAD AREA. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F ALREADY ARE COMMON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA, SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWESTERN AL. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER AT LEAST THE "HIGH" AND "MODERATE" AREAS TODAY, WHERE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL OVERLAP THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THERE, DIURNAL HEATING WILL REMOVE MLCINH FROM MIDDAY ONWARD, CONTRIBUTING TO READY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BOTH IN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, EXPECT STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE, ALMOST IDEALLY SHAPED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FORMED IN PART BY A WIDE, 60-70-KT LLJ. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD PEAK MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG, AMIDST 65-75-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VECTORS, AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 400-700 J/KG.
THIS IS AN UNCOMMON, UPPER-ECHELON PARAMETER SPACE. IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT, ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES, SOME LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT (EF2-5 POSSIBLE), WITH CONSIDERABLE DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL COLD-POOL/OUTFLOW STRENGTH VIA LESS SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION, SO THAT EVEN CLOSELY SPACED STORMS MAY HAVE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREATS. FORECAST WIND FIELDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND THEIR TORNADOES WILL BE FAST-MOVING (45-55 KT), WITH INDIVIDUAL TORNADO PATHS NEARLY AS LONG IN MILES AS THEIR DURATION IN MINUTES.
AT ANY GIVEN TIME, BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NONETHELESS, WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO SPREAD AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SIMILARLY INTENSE DEEP SHEAR AS FARTHER SOUTH. AS SUCH, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS AND TORNADOES IN PARTICULAR WILL EXTEND INTO TONIGHT, SPREADING UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN TO "SLIGHT" AND "MARGINAL LEVELS" LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AS THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM REMAINING OPTIMAL INSTABILITY, AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE BOUNDARY-PARALLEL.
..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 03/25/2021
Yep, I looked carefully at the reports and damage pictures. There was some substantial damage from an EF-1 and some (actually less) damage from one of the two EF-2s. But no complete destruction of sturdy buildings that would come with EF-3 and higher.
This I-95 Corridor city/suburban boy loves the Midwest and the Southeast...it’s truly God’s Country! But tornadoes scare me more that any other natural calamity. Hopefully the good people of the region stay safe!
this is one of the best setups I gave ever seen outside of the plains..it even rivals those
of course this area is more populated then the wheat fields of KS
pray that it doesn’t live up to its potential
could be the equivalent of dropping the mother of all bombs on several towns destruction wise
I-95 from Florida to NH is pretty scary !!
little highlight from the discussion
THIS IS AN UNCOMMON, UPPER-ECHELON PARAMETER SPACE. IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT, ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MULTIPLE TORNADOES, SOME LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT (EF2-5
POSSIBLE), WITH CONSIDERABLE DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL. A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL COLD-POOL/OUTFLOW STRENGTH
VIA LESS SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION, SO THAT EVEN CLOSELY SPACED STORMS
MAY HAVE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREATS. FORECAST WIND FIELDS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND
THEIR TORNADOES WILL BE FAST-MOVING (45-55 KT), WITH INDIVIDUAL
TORNADO PATHS NEARLY AS LONG IN MILES AS THEIR DURATION IN MINUTES.
I'll take a blizzard over a tornado any day.
Back when my daughter was stationed at Ft. Riley (Kansas), we took her and the kids to a movie at a Topeka theater. It was a warm August afternoon.
Leaving after the show, the sky was that scary green color. It's about 70 miles from Topeka back to Ft. Riley.
On the way, the skies let loose a barrage of first rain, then hail. By now the sun had set and we could only see what the headlights showed us. Then, we got lightning.
With one of the lightning flashes, we looked to the south and saw a tornado. We sped back west as fast as we could. Later on, we learned that it was an EF3.
Yeah but liberals are everywhere... East Coast nightmare. I lived on the East coast form many years, the majority in Maryland. Never again.. had to get away for the east coast attitude.
RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES AND SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SUMMARY...A DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
I”m not offended by the all caps but there are some thin-skinned denizens of FReepland...
strong tornado on the ground moving towards the southern Birmingham Al Metro
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021
ALC007-251815-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-210325T1815Z/
BIBB AL-
101 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTY...
AT 101 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEST BLOCTON, OR 13 MILES WEST OF MONTEVALLO, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,
BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
IS POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST BLOCTON, NORTH BIBB, HEBRON AND MARVEL.
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
137 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
ALC073-117-251900-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210325T1900Z/
Shelby AL-Jefferson AL-
137 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SHELBY COUNTY...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES...
At 136 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
over Indian Springs Village, or near Hoover, moving northeast at 45
mph.
TORNADO EMERGENCY for Hwy 280 Lee Branch. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
mutual Aid requests for several area now south metro
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
146 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.
* AT 145 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNT LAUREL, OR NEAR CHELSEA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NO
many towns hit in AL
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