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How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?
New York TImes ^ | December 24, 2020 | Donald G. McNeil Jr.

Posted on 12/24/2020 11:38:16 AM PST by karpov

At what point does a country achieve herd immunity? What portion of the population must acquire resistance to the coronavirus, either through infection or vaccination, in order for the disease to fade away and life to return to normal?

Since the start of the pandemic, the figure that many epidemiologists have offered has been 60 to 70 percent. That range is still cited by the World Health Organization and is often repeated during discussions of the future course of the disease.

Although it is impossible to know with certainty what the limit will be until we reach it and transmission stops, having a good estimate is important: It gives Americans a sense of when we can hope to breathe freely again.

Recently, a figure to whom millions of Americans look for guidance — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, an adviser to both the Trump administration and the incoming Biden administration — has begun incrementally raising his herd-immunity estimate.

In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying “70, 75 percent” in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: covid; fauci
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How can you "trust the science" when scientists lie?

1 posted on 12/24/2020 11:38:16 AM PST by karpov
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To: karpov

Why not have Covid-19 parties, then? Keep old, fat and sick people safe, let everyone else get it.


2 posted on 12/24/2020 11:39:54 AM PST by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: karpov

Excuse me! “ and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.” What a jerk! We are big boys and girls and can handle the truth. I more suspect this is actually not the case. I think they are moving goal posts b/c it suits whatever wacko cause they are angling for.


3 posted on 12/24/2020 11:40:43 AM PST by clarissaexplainsitall
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To: karpov

Again, there is no such thing as “herd immunity” as no immunity is conferred. What is called “herd immunity” is merely a lack of exposure.


4 posted on 12/24/2020 11:41:05 AM PST by taxcontrol (Stupid should hurt - Dad's wisdom)
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To: karpov

It wasn’t that long ago that “herd immunity” was dismissed by the establishment. Then they brought it back when talking about the vaccine. Now they’re retiring it by revising the needed innoculation numbers upwards that would achieve herd immunity.


5 posted on 12/24/2020 11:43:53 AM PST by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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I will have to look it up, but I distinctly remember reading a factoid that stated about 6 times as many people died of overdose in commiefornia than died of the virus who cannot be named


6 posted on 12/24/2020 11:44:52 AM PST by dsrtsage (Complexity is merely simplicity lacking imagination)
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To: karpov

[[How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?]]

Till everyone goes “MOO” of course


7 posted on 12/24/2020 11:45:29 AM PST by Bob434
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To: karpov

This is asking a dictator how much power is enough? The answer if there is never enough.


8 posted on 12/24/2020 11:46:59 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: karpov
In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

WHAT???

9 posted on 12/24/2020 11:47:49 AM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: karpov

Being that Covid-? is as much BS as our election’s i’m sure the new target will be 125%. These people are so full of shit i can smell’em where i live, it permeates every time they open their mouth’s.


10 posted on 12/24/2020 11:47:49 AM PST by heshtesh
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To: taxcontrol

Are you sure? I thought it was exactly what it said - most people have antibodies to resist the disease.

I’m sure the goalposts will be raised to 99.9....9% - however much it takes to keep the lockdown going. If it saves even one life, it will be worth it.


11 posted on 12/24/2020 11:48:38 AM PST by scrabblehack
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To: PghBaldy

When we got Chicken Pox as kids, my mother put all us kids in the bathtub together...

Thing is, it will never be enough. As long as it can be used as a tool, it will be kept active and prominent until the bitter end.


12 posted on 12/24/2020 11:49:34 AM PST by rlmorel ("I’d rather enjoy a risky freedom than a safe servitude." Robby Dinero, USMC Veteran, Gym Owner)
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To: BookmanTheJanitor

SO Fauci has admitted he’s been a liar? Great, let’s arrest him then.


13 posted on 12/24/2020 11:49:37 AM PST by Professional ( )
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To: clarissaexplainsitall

“ partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks”

A perfect explanation of why no one trusts “experts”. Fauci says he changed his tune because polls find people are more receptive to vaccination, so now he can be “truthful” as opposed to earlier when he was evidently lying. A more likely explanation is he’s now lying to us in an attempt to get more people to take the vaccines, and in a few months we’ll hear him say that.

Regardless, it’s interesting that he admits outright his statements are not science based but rather based in an intent to shape public opinion and actions. Just like with mask usage this spring, and social distancing.

This should be Exhibit A in why the term “settled science” is BS.


14 posted on 12/24/2020 11:50:12 AM PST by NittanyLion
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To: karpov

As LONG AS WE KEEP TOLERATING THIS BULLSHIT THEY’LL JUST KEEP FEEDING IT TO US! YUM YUM EVERYONE!


15 posted on 12/24/2020 11:57:08 AM PST by heshtesh
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To: karpov

In the olden days, before covid it was generally 60%+ or so, depending on who was susceptible and how virulent it was.

In things like prisons or ships, it was a lot higher. But in a society where people know enough to stay away from others when they are sick it is not REALLY high.


16 posted on 12/24/2020 12:13:59 PM PST by Vermont Lt (We have entered "Insanity Week." Act accordingly.)
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To: karpov

Isn’t 40-60-% the rate of asymptotic infections?


17 posted on 12/24/2020 12:14:45 PM PST by Hodar (A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.- Burroughs)
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To: karpov

Democrats and Bill Gates- 105%!


18 posted on 12/24/2020 12:26:10 PM PST by Dr. Ursus
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To: karpov
...and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

This is an admission on his part, knowingly or not, that he is a fool and has been lying to the nation. Of course, NYT is silent on this, except for just reporting it...

19 posted on 12/24/2020 12:35:19 PM PST by jeffc (I'm a Patriot, and the media are our enemy)
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To: BookmanTheJanitor

“new science”


20 posted on 12/24/2020 12:40:28 PM PST by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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