Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
Who gives a damn?
That’s exactly how the Deep State wants you to feel.
Eff ‘em!
And holding the Senate until then would be a good thing.
As if Dominion will allow that.
Oh good god! How stupid do they thing we are? We don’t have elections anymore.
Against the biggest, most inclusive voter fraud organization ever?
Not if they steal this election they’re not. Why would 75 million of us ever vote again after having our votes stolen without a fight from the GOP.
Screw the republicans. I hope Trump starts a 3rd party.
There is no use playing the same old games anymore. If western civilization is to be saved, it will not be through normal processes.
Well I hope so, so that the first thing they do is audit 538 and put this assclown out of a job, along with Bald Pate Nate.
Who’s voting for them???
Not at least half of their standard base....not the blacks or hispanics that went for TRUMP....NOT Repubs.
They really do take us for dolts.
Would love that.
I’m not even sure what the hell the GOP would ever use as their campaign theme in 2022 without making everyone die laughing. After the 2017-18 session of Congress came and went with ObamaCare still in force as the law of the land, nobody has any reason to believe a single campaign promise the GOP ever makes again.
LOL like a Republican will be able to win an election after this.
Sure they will.
Sure. If Dominion decides to let us win that is.
lol
This. Not sure I will vote Republican after what they have done to my President.
This is a good thread.
Everyone gets it: there wont BE a “Republican” party in 2 years.
They know now that they can rig ANY election, and then hold off any attempt to overturn the crime with their SoS’s, judges, malfeasant “law enforcement” officers, and of course the hissing and screaming campaigns shouting “you have no proof!”.
If this stands, IT’S OVER.
We live in a tyrannocracy, Brazil with nukes.
What WAS the light of the world now becomes a sinister and evil place.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.