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Latest as of last night:
Of the 61,000 AZ ballots out (Trump trails by 14,500), some 18,000 are provisionals from Pima County (Tucson). Not good, but the fact they are provisionals means many may be tossed.
There is a very large batch of NON-provisionals from Maricopa and a few Trump friendly counties. All the rest of the Trump friendly counties are provisionals.
So what does this mean?
1) Provisionals in Pima are going to be 60/40 D. Let’s hope most get tossed because they lack sufficient signature, etc.
2) Maricopa ballots all depend on where they come from. N. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, southern suburbs like Chandler, east Mesa, Gilbert, heavy Trump. West side/south before the suburbs, D.
3) Yuma has a couple of thousand out. I don’t know enough about this county to call it.
4) Some of the other counties are north, very heavy red.
Conclusion: this will be VERY close. There are more than enough good counties out there to get 14,000, but the wild card are the Pima provisionals. Remember a provisional is a ballot in question. Could come from Rs or Ds, could be Sharpiegate.
Yesterday there was a report that RCP “pulled” its PA projection. NO, they never made it.
I still give Trump only about a 30% chance of pulling this off. The path goes like this. I think he has to get AZ; second, he has to get 25,000 out of WI, which wins it. That’s 21 EVs. Then the real battle is on between PA (20), GA (16?) and MI (18). We need as best I can tell AZ + WI +one other.
The state legislatures are engaged, but who knows how totally committed they are. GA will be recounted, but we need ALL of these to be “re-canvassed,” that is, a review of all the machines, for in WI and MI there were machine errors where a single machine was off by 4,000 for Biteme.
Don’t kid yourselves. Trump can win the court case in PA and still come up short if he doesn’t get two of AZ/MI/WI/GA. An AZ win here would be very, very big.
Don’t forget that AZ used Dominion also.
Since you accused me of “handwringing” when I posted Corey L’s comment that it would be a very close election, are you engaging in the proverbial “handwringer”?
Asking for a friend...
Let’s all Pray AZ flips
That would be bombshell news and put Biden on defense.
Let’s pray all pending Military ballots in Georgia are enough to flip to Trump before a recount.
Let’s pray more sw glitches are uncovered in WI and MI enough to force recouns and scrutinty.
Let’s pray the GOP state houses get a backbone esp in PA and root out fraud
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Thanks for being practical, logical and hopeful.
30 percent chance of a win is not a good number. Just concentrating on illegal votes cast in individual states is unlikely to accomplish that. The systemic vote changes on Dominion machines are immensely harder to show to skeptical courts let alone prove.
There are many IT types out there in the individual states that are trying to get sufficent information in the attempt to make the case but I don’t believe many of the machines have been examined yet and delay increases the chance that bad actors will work to erase the evidence. Overall, discouraging as it may be, I have to agree with LD that it’s a tough hill to climb.
What about Nevada and the California residents voting there.
Thanks, LS.
Thanks for doing this. My gut tells me it’s kinda over but what do I know...
Even if Trump doesn’t win, he gets vindication, which will cast a pall over Biden’s Presidency, and further damage the credibility of the Mainstream Media. That’s why it’s important that the Truth comes out, whether or not it saves Trump’s Presidency.
Thanks for the update.
If it were just the provisional ballots and ‘old school’ fraud, 30% is right.
When you get to hacking and the experts saying the systems were insecure and there’s no way to know then we kick into this scenario:
ere it is in writing...
In case I’m censored again...
This is going to the Supreme Court. Where they will rule that the election is invalid due to fraud or mistakes on a country wide scale.
It will go one of two ways, either they will rule that all the unconstitutional mail in ballots will be removed and the states ordered to recount without them or they will simply rule the election is invalid due to mass voter fraud and at that point it will be sent to the congress and senate for a vote. This is where it gets good.
The house/congress votes on who the President will be. It has nothing to do with what party that has power. Every State gets one vote and 30 States are held by Republicans.and 20 by Democrats. They have to vote down party lines, they have no choice due to the 12th Amendment of the Constitution and the Senate votes for the Vice President where a similar even will take place. This is The law.
This is why the Democrats are so mad at Nancy Pelosi. This will all happen in January.
The only way President Trump won’t be President is if he concedes the election and that will never happen So stop watching the fake news and don’t let your heart be troubled and live your life knowing this will all work out. President Trump will remain President.
Trump has Pelosi in a quandary. If the Supreme Court says it must be voted on by the delegates, Pelosi will not want to do it knowing Trump would win. He will therefore refuse to concede so we are at an impasse. Do you see his advantage again?
Another fun fact, they called Gore the President Elect for 30 days in 2000 until the courts ruled against him and declared Bush the winner. And two people that were part of that decision were none other that new Supreme Court Justices, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett. Why do you think the Democrats tried so hard to keep them from being confirmed?
Ohio State Rep Candice Keller
He will get MI and WI because of tossing magic votes in Detroit and Milwaukee
AUtomatic recount at around 3,000 vote difference in AZ might help things if he doesn’t win outright.
LS -- note the skull and crossbones flag. Do you know of any lawyers who could comment whether this is actionable?Here are two attorneys attempting to help Trump overturn the will of the Pennsylvanian people.
Ronald Hicks
412.235.1476
rhicks@porterwright.com
Carolyn McGee
412.235.1488
cmcgee@porterwright.com
Make them famous. 🏴☠️ pic.twitter.com/YwjMGvTqcW— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) November 10, 2020
Baris was in touch with Ducey’s people: apparently these are the “good” parts of Maricopa. VERY DOABLE. 2) Ducey, whom I have been very hard on due to the lockdowns, has been stellar in this fight. His team has figured out exactly how many ballots are outstanding, so there can be no more mysterious last-minute ballots. Baris thinks now Trump wins AZ by 6,000
You are now less hopeful. I also note you are not quoting Baris anymore. What changed?
FReegards!
Thanks for the update!!!
Well said, Larry. And once again, thank you so much for your diligence and clarity.
FIAT JUSTITIA RUAT CAELUM.
Rudy talking tough about bad fraud coming out of Michigan.
This is a war to the death.
I am praying for Truth, Justice and the American Republic to prevail.
.............I THINK I’m more concerned about the votes that have been counted NOT the 61,000 ballots “OUT”.
Were those ballots legit or was the count played with by someone manning a computer in Spain or somewhere?
