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The pollsters were wrong again — why do we listen to them?
NY Post ^ | 11/03/2020 | John Podhoretz

Posted on 11/04/2020 12:55:03 AM PST by Oshkalaboomboom

Every single major election year, they do it to us. They offer us numbers, and people interested in politics mainline them like heroin. We’re soothed. We’re calmed. Soon we are hungry for more, more, more. By election night, we junkies end up fried, damaged, and in need of rehab.

It’s time to go cold turkey before our last brain cells are destroyed.

Donald Trump won Florida by 3.5 points. In 2016, he won Florida by 1.1. Last night he tripled his margin of victory. And the polling? The final 538 average had Joe Biden winning Florida by 2.5 points. It was off by 5.

You’ll hear people say this is a normal polling error, not a systemic failure. Bullbleep. This is the third race in a row (Presidency 2016, Governor and Senate 2018, and this) in which Florida polling was almost comically wrong.

That Florida disaster is mirrored in a longer and deeper national story. We’ve lived through a series of national elections in which we were sold a bill of goods—about the Obama reelection in 2012, about the Senate in 2014, about the Trump-Clinton contest in 2016 and about control of the House in 2018. Most polls got all these wrong too.

And yet we fell for their crap again.

Political polling is a fraud. It claims to measure something that, it is now unmistakably clear, cannot be accurately measured. Polling’s seductive promise is that it will take the guesswork out of understanding a complex and changing set of circumstances and replace that uncertainly with something that looks like science.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: biden; election; polls; trump
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This is why I ignore the polls. They are a joke, as much of a joke as the election night coverage, which I also skipped.
1 posted on 11/04/2020 12:55:03 AM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

This election should be over!!!!!

Demonrats are trying to STEAL this election

There is NO DOUBT!!


2 posted on 11/04/2020 12:56:42 AM PST by afchief
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

They used to be somewhat OK, ut since Trump it is horsesht.

It reminds me when Bush Jr was doing a temper tantrum because the internet had voted him out next to Keyes and Forbes.

The establishment then did a media blackout on Keyes and Forbes.

They do not want an outsider.


3 posted on 11/04/2020 12:58:10 AM PST by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security in hates:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: afchief

agree


4 posted on 11/04/2020 12:58:27 AM PST by GOP Poet (Super cool you can change your tag line EVERYTIME you post!! :D. (Small things make me happy))
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To: afchief

Yeah, they would not spoil or delay the party like this if it was an Obama winning.

Imagine the pubes doing this to them in 2012.

It is such bull sht. They are like these parasite teachers or suppliers delaying and stonewalling... trying to kill it.


5 posted on 11/04/2020 12:59:34 AM PST by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security in hates:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

Bret Baier has been highly praising the Trafalgar Group all night... saying they’re pretty much the only polling company that got it right.


6 posted on 11/04/2020 12:59:50 AM PST by nutmeg (Mega prayers for Rush Limbaugh)
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

This is insane. We need legislation to streamline the vote. This is a national election. The Congress & POTUS MUST write laws that require voting be done in a consistent manner throughout the country.

In Person, unless disabled or out of state for election day.

Paper Optical read ballots ONLY. Paper Trail is needed.

NO MORE ELECTION MONTH. We have a constitution that says WHEN election DAY is. That is when we should vote. PERIOD!

There is no excuse that we can’t count the vote in a few hours, not days.

This is a disgrace.


7 posted on 11/04/2020 1:00:27 AM PST by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

what is the popular vote right now??


8 posted on 11/04/2020 1:03:47 AM PST by snarkytart
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To: Oshkalaboomboom
This from Freeper timestax in the other thread.
9 posted on 11/04/2020 1:04:44 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

Also , we need to start ignoring the left wing media. Cancel your subscription to these purveyors of lies. You do better with no information than false information. Not kidding. Remove them from your lives. Find other news outlets. Stop funding them.


10 posted on 11/04/2020 1:04:45 AM PST by Getready (Wisdom is more valuable than gold and diamonds, and harder to find.)
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

11 posted on 11/04/2020 1:08:56 AM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: nutmeg
Bret Baier has been highly praising the Trafalgar Group all night... saying they’re pretty much the only polling company that got it right.

Trump told Hannity "I must tell you that Fox has among the worst pollsters of all. I think they're terrible."

If Brett Baier thinks Trafalagar is so good perhaps he should suggest that Fox actually use them.

12 posted on 11/04/2020 1:13:43 AM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
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To: Oshkalaboomboom
Why do we listen to them?

We don't.

13 posted on 11/04/2020 1:18:18 AM PST by Veggie Todd (Religion. It's like a History class. Without the facts.)
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

Fool me once shame on you.
Fool me twice shame on you.


14 posted on 11/04/2020 1:21:21 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

This guy is a presumptuous dope. Who is “we?” I have steadfastly refused to take any polls seriously since 2016.


15 posted on 11/04/2020 1:22:38 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("There's somebody new and he sure ain't no rodeo man.")
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To: Jim from C-Town

I disagree with you on that. Did you know that under the Constitution, there is no requirement for states to allow people to vote in presidential elections? State legislatures have the authority to establish their own rules for appointing electors to the Electoral College. Maybe it’s time for a couple of states to have their legislatures select the presidential electors directly — which is the way 7 of the original 13 states did it very early on in our country’s history.


16 posted on 11/04/2020 1:27:11 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("There's somebody new and he sure ain't no rodeo man.")
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

How About The President’s remarks?
(Video)

https://twitter.com/easystreet4/status/1323918543218339841?s=21

~Easy


17 posted on 11/04/2020 1:27:34 AM PST by EasySt (Say not this is the truth, but so it seems to me to be, as I see this thing I think I see #KAG)
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To: Berlin_Freeper

“Fool me once shame on you.
Fool me twice shame on you.”

I think you mean, “Fool me twice shame on me”


18 posted on 11/04/2020 1:29:56 AM PST by billyboy15
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To: Oshkalaboomboom

“We” do not.

But “we” enjoy their bluster.

The REALLY good news.

Tomorrow they will ALL be unemployed.


19 posted on 11/04/2020 1:30:36 AM PST by freedumb2003 ("Do not mistake activity for achievement." - John Wooden)
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To: Oshkalaboomboom
This is why I ignore the polls. They are a joke, as much of a joke

Barnes and Baras at "What Are the Odds?" have been consistently right. They show how states you wouldn't think are connected will go together because of demographic and ethnic trends you can spot--if you know what you're doing, and don't lie to yourself in either direction.

When I heard Trump was pulling away in Florida, I knew Biden was toast in the upper Midwest. Which means he's toast. The only thing that could save him will be if everybody stops counting votes for long enough for his mad-scientist bosses to create more imaginary votes and ship more firebombs around the country.

Oremus, and keep our powder dry.

20 posted on 11/04/2020 1:31:00 AM PST by SamuraiScot
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