Early Vote 2020 Analysis

Elect Project ^ | November 2, 2020 | Michael McDonald • Professor, University of Florida

[lonestar67]

Nevada

Nevada is an all-mail state in 2020, but it was not an all-mail ballot state in 2016. A little more than 2/3rds of its votes were cast before Election Day in 2016, so there might be a reasonable comparison to be made. For these statistics, I’m including in my Nevada data a large Clark County mail ballot report that I downloaded on Sunday that is not yet reflected in the state reports, and that Nevada reporter Jon Ralston believes is key to a Biden win.

Party % 2020 Early Vote % 2016 Early Vote % 2016 Actual Vote Democrats 40.3% 42.1% 47.9% Republicans 35.9% 36.2% 45.5% Dem Lead +4.4 +5.9 +2.9

Here, the early vote data suggests that Biden will eek out a very narrow win in Nevada, with a shift of 1.5 percentage points in the partisan distribution of the electorate. But, what is also suggestive in these data is that Trump made up ground on Election Day in 2016. This is the primarily forecasting confound for the all the other states. The past election is not the same, and comparisons must be made carefully. Most likely, Nevada will not see the same Election Day vote as in 2016. If it did, it would have a turnout rate off the charts, perhaps even higher than Colorado or Oregon. That seems unlikely. Most likely, the Election Day vote might be closer to, say, a quarter of the overall electorate. If this is the case, then there is less gas in the tank for Trump to roll to victory on the strength of the Election Day vote.

Florida

Florida looks darn close, again.

Party % 2020 Early Vote % 2016 Early Vote % 2016 Actual Vote Democrats 39.2% 39.8% 47.8% Republicans 38.1% 38.3% 49.0% Dem Lead +1.1 +1.5 -1.2

[lonestar67]

This is a fairly pro-Democrat source but does indicate some good basis of optimism in places like Nevada and Florida based on early returns.

[lonestar67]

Party % 2020 Early Vote % 2016 Early Vote % 2016 Actual Vote

Democrats 40.3% 42.1% 47.9%

Republicans 35.9% 36.2% 45.5%

Dem Lead +4.4 +5.9 +2.9

[lonestar67]

Florida looks darn close, again.

Party % 2020 Early Vote % 2016 Early Vote % 2016 Actual Vote

Democrats 39.2% 39.8% 47.8%

Republicans 38.1% 38.3% 49.0%

Dem Lead +1.1 +1.5 -1.2

[lonestar67]

Post 2 is Nevada data

[rightwingcrazy]

“data suggests that Biden will eek out a very narrow win”

Eek! Professor, it’s “eke”!

[JennysCool]

Nevada isn’t an “all-mail state.” Where does he get that idea, I wonder?

[BigEdLB]

Professor Ironbeard wants Biden to win.

[BookmanTheJanitor]

Nevada is an all-mail state in 2020

Huh?

[mmichaels1970]

Just googled Nevada “in person” voting and found this:

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Nevada will mail all active, registered voters a ballot in the mail in late September or early October. You can also vote in person. Nevada offers early voting. Keep up with deadlines in your state to make sure your vote is counted.

[lonestar67]

That is correct and I think the fact that he can see that Trump may win places like NC, Florida and Nevada is a good indication for our side.

[willk]

I don’t find much overall optimism about what this professor has to say. Only comfort I find is the knowledge that professors these days tend to be wrong.

[snarkytart]

yea what is so great about this to post right before we start voting?

my goodness some people on here really know how to piss on everything

[lonestar67]

I think there are a couple of key ideas for this post:

#1 A state that Trump did not win in 2016— Nevada— could be won this year because the Democratic lead is smaller than it was in 2016 as we enter the election day.

#2 If we show up and vote in places like Nevada we can capitalize on the relatively weak position of the democrats in several states to win for Trump

[MagillaX]

Ignore the Baghdad Bob lies, I can hear the bugle playing, and the cavalry has arrived.

Get out and vote Trump 2020 and bring a friend.

[fortheDeclaration]

We will win FL by 200,000 votes this time.

[deport]

Voters have a choic

Voting In Person
Even though all active registered voters will receive a ballot in the mail for the 2020 general election, voters can choose to vote in person at a polling place instead of voting by mail. Voter who choose to vote in person will have two options:

Early Voting - Early voting begins on Saturday, October 17 and runs through Friday, October 30. Days and hours of operation vary by county. A list of early voting polling places by county can be found here. In order to avoid lines on Election Day, all voters who wish to vote in person are encouraged to vote early.
Election Day - Polling locations open at 7:00 am on Election Day and remain open until 7:00 pm. As long as you are in line by 7:00 pm, you will be allowed to vote. A list of Election Day polling places by county can be found here.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/election-information/2020-election/2020-general-election

[cgbg]

Thanks for the info—if the prof. got that wrong it is hard to consider him a reliable source...

[MrChips]

It’s depressing me! I stopped reading.

[JennysCool]

Yes. We’ve had in-person early voting for a couple of weeks, and it will be in-person tomorrow.

[Cool Guy]

Don’t worry.. there will be a lot of walkaway votes to deliver a landslide..