Posted on 11/01/2020 6:38:33 AM PST by bort
On the last day of early voting yesterday, Democrats managed to cast 1K more early votes than Republicans, ending the EV season with a 256K lead over the GOP. The black share of the vote broke a 5 day losing streak and slightly increased from 19.41% to 19.50%. But don't fret these results. Yesterday was the big "Souls to the Polls" day in NC and other states, whereas weekends have been low-turnout, softer turnout days for Rs. Interestingly, both Rs and Ds were out-voted yesterday by "unaffiliated" voters. Republicans did manage to cut 1/5 of a point from the Democrats % lead yesterday.
Dems---1,694,831 (+61K) (37.4% of all EV)
Reps---1,438,047 (+60K) (31.73% of all EV)
Unaf---1,374,183 (+63K) (30.33% of all EV)
Democrat lead----257K (Dems will gain a few thousand more EV as the mail-in ballots continue to trickle in)
Black share of EV electorate---19.50%
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Roughly 43K NC blacks voted yesterday, which likely accounts for 60% or more the Democrats' 63K votes. Obviously, the Democrats are still fighting hard to get their base out, but it's too little, too late. Please note that the TRUE black share of the electorate is likely a point higher than 19.50%, as a chunk of NC voters do not report their race. The black % share will drop on Election Day, as registered Republicans (who are 99% non-black) will greatly out-number Democrats. I still expect the black share of the electorate to fall below 20%. Democrats need this number to be above 22% to have a chance to win. Also, as a reminder, Democrats led early voting by 310K in 2016 and LOST NC by 3.8 points.
The unaffiliated vote is up. I interpret that as a good thing. Atlantic Coast unaffiliated voters tend to be socially moderate and fiscally conservative. When they turn against Republicans, their turnout tends to go down. When they are with Republicans, their turnout tends to go up. Riots, law and order, foreign affairs, economic issues, etc. are the types of issues that draw them to our side. Also, the last time I checked, male unaffiliateds were out-voting women. Trust me, things like cancel culture, schools being closed, Hunter Biden, AOC, the GDP number don't get lost on Atlantic Coast independents, who are largely professionals/affluent and are big news consumers. They are appalled by censorship and the Left's attack on traditional American values.
Translation: Trump's campaign has gained momentum each day since the last debate. Biden has lost steam, and the Hunter Biden story has permeated into the mainstream. A perfect example was this week's Tucker Carlson show with Tony Bobulinski, which netted over 7 million viewers. A lot of these viewers are independent type voters.
The math and non-media polls suggest that Trump will win NC by 2. Based on Trump's momentum, Biden's fading, the China Virus drop-off (which will depress some Dem ED turnout), etc., I feel comfortable in predicting that Trump wins NC by 6 points and Tillis wins, as well.
ping
Trump is going to NC at least 2 more times before Tuesday. FWIW.
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Now back to reality. NC still has a lot of voting to do on election day. Fwiw.
Heck of a thing to have many millions done voting before the debates are over.
Heck of a thing...
“Souls to the Polls” should that be “Sold their souls at the Polls?” They vote for the same that never has lifted them up. All that have cashed in are the black church leaders that get paid off for the votes.
Trump is going to NC at least 2 more times before Tuesday. FWIW
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There are some soft spots in early voting, especially in and around Hickory, NC, where he is visiting today. Trump needs NC, GA, and FL. Lock those states down and he just needs one more.
I think his NC visits may also have something to do with down-ballot races. Tillis, House races, and, most importantly, governor, as the next governor does redistricting and can undo that court decision that cost us seats. This is why Trump is going back to Iowa. He’s up close to double digits, but he can guarantee Joni Ernst’s seat, pick off a couple of house seats, etc.
Early voting should only be for a 2 week period following the final scheduled debate.
NC should be renamed ‘Southern New York’; when I lived there (Mooresville) there were more NY transplants than natives.
are you doing this for Georgia?
Thanks for the update. Repubs better show up to vote on Tuesday. Almost 85% of 2016 final votes have been cast, so there’s not a lot of votes left for ED. IMHO, NC had already almost been decided and it depends how the UNAS voted. We still need Rs to vote on ED, hence the 2 last minute stops by POTUS.
“On the last day of early voting yesterday, Democrats managed to cast 1K more early votes than Republicans...”
Of those 1000 Democrat voters, we can safely assume that 450 voted for Trump. That is a great sign and all indicators point to a Trump win in North Carolina.
are you doing this for Georgia?
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No, I’m not doing Georgia, but I will say this: The two counties with the highest voter turnout in GA are Forsyth and Hall. These counties are about as pro-Trump as you can get.
I think Trump is going to Rome, Ga (NW Georgia) for three reasons: 1) just to make doubly sure they win (I think he will win GA by 8); 2) to make sure that Perdue gets over 50% of the vote so there is no run-off; 3) as a way to help Doug Collins defeat Kelly Loeffler without coming out and endorsing him. Rome, Ga and surrounding areas will go heavily for Collins, and Trump is jacking north GA turnout up by being there. Loeffler is from Atlanta. Trump is still pissed that Gov. Kemp picked Loeffler over Collins.
My brother moved there from New Jersey. He lives on the 6th hole of Trump National.
Thanks for the update. Repubs better show up to vote on Tuesday. Almost 85% of 2016 final votes have been cast, so there’s not a lot of votes left for ED. IMHO, NC had already almost been decided and it depends how the UNAS voted. We still need Rs to vote on ED, hence the 2 last minute stops by POTUS.
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Fair points. However, I would suggest that the Democrat pot of early voters is more Trump-friendly than the Democrats would like. It is heavy on older, whiter voters, and lighter on 18 to 40 y/os. If the election was stopped today and the votes counted, Trump would be with 2 points or less. The U’s are majority male.
Those are the numbers by party registration, but I truly think there will be quite a few registered Dems voting for Trump.
If I understand these Early Vote totals correctly, they are a tally of the Party in which the Voter is registered?
Thus, a Registered Democrat may have voted Democrat, Green Party OR Republican, but his vote is tallied as a “Democrat Voter”.
Is this correct?
NC is one of the Few Remaining Toss ups that are not obvious Trump wins based on pure early voting, but the MSM is still saying nothing about Biden’s “Historic Poll Collapse”.
The shear amount of early votes means the race may be called before 10 PM on Tuesday.
Heads are going to explode.
So as I read it R’s 26,000 up more votes compared to 2016 heading into Tuesday..where R’s won by 3.8%
Bort, gotta remember Trump will take at least 15% of the black vote this time, maybe more with Lil Wayne.
So all that turnout needs to be adjusted downward.
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