Posted on 10/31/2020 9:30:44 AM PDT by bort
Dave Wasserman of the leftist Cook Report, has been suggesting for weeks that Texas will turn blue. In turn, Democrats have burned tens of millions of dollars on Texas senate and house races. His latest tweet boasts about the massive turnout in 10 large suburban counties in Texas, suggesting that a surge of Karens and their mask wearing, beta male husbands is swarming the suburban polls to get Trump!
So I spent 5 minutes researching this suburban Texas revolt against Trump. I used TargetSmart (Dem. firm), which "models" voters as likely R or likely D. I also looked up the 2016 results for Trump vs. Hillary:
Hays Co.--2016 (tie); 2020 45/39 (Trump +6)
Williamson--2016 (Trump +9); 2020 54/30 (Trump +14)
Denton----2016 (Trump +20); 2020 64/23 (Trump +40)
Comal---2016 (Trump +49); 2020 80/14 (Trump +66)
Ft. Bend--2020 (Trump -3); 2020 45/42 (Trump flip!)
Collin---2020 (Trump +14); 2020 63/23 (Trump +40)
Travis-2020 (Trump -39); 2020 21/70 (Trump -49)
There you have it folks. The great Texas suburban revolt. This abject moron is assuming that because in 2018 (Beto vs. Cruz) Democrats closed the gap in these counties, that somehow this gap will be tightened more in 2020. The opposite is happening. Texas suburbanites have been repelled by the riots, gun control, anti-oil stance, etc. of the Democrats. The only large suburban county with increased Dem turnout is Travis, home of the Austin leftists.
BTW, if a huge bunch of suburbanites were turned off by Trump's personality, this would result in DEPRESSED Republican turnout, not massive waves of Republican voters at the polls. Yes, I know some will question the TargetSmart numbers, but this is coming from a DEMOCRAT firm.
Keep it up, Dave! Make Texas a toss-up so Biden shows up there instead of Michigan.
Hays Co:
ping
Interesting...Polls are crap. They are fundraisers - nothing else.
The press is crowing about the massive early vote numbers in Harris County, but it turns out all the increased early voting turnout is in Republican precincts. Turnout in the deep blue black and hispanic precincts is actually down.
Travis County is located in south central Texas. As of the 2010 census, the population was 1,024,266; the estimated population in 2019 was 1,273,954. It is the fifth-most populous county in Texas. Its county seat is Austin, the capital of Texas.
Does the population of Travis equal the other counties mentioned combined?
Travis county is a lost cause. They have been commie red for a long time. U. T. Is nothing but a Socialist Petri dish.
The logic escapes me. NO ONE is excited to vote for Biden. Why would they be? He’s a corrupt, soulless, and boring 50-year career DC politician. He’s also showing signs of dementia, although MSM watchers are shielded from this.
EVERY single Biden voter I know is motivated solely by manufactured and constant Trump hate. How can hate alone motivate 10-20% more Democrats to come out? It’s impossible.
Georgetown, the county seat of Williamson County has an unofficial motto of “Keep Georgetown Normal, ” to counter the hip “Keep Austin Weird” of the state capital. That place has looked down on Democrat Austin for decades. No way in hell it goes for Biden over Trump.
Mr. Wasserman needs a drug test, because he has to be high as a kite to believe this s—t.
Does the population of Travis equal the other counties mentioned combined?
Denton Co. alone has 900K.
Collin Co. has 1.1 million.
Correct in that if they didn’t like Trump they’d simply skip voting. That’s what seems to have happened to Romney, he couldn’t muster strong support and many republicans skipped.
Are your numbers from 2016 the final turnout spread D vs R for the entire election, or is that the final 2016 early turnout D vs R?
If those 2016 numbers are the spread for the entirety of votes cast in those counties, then the usual republican Election Day wave will make Trump more than safe.
I find the Texas claims as I see the Georgia claims - I will believe it when I see it. I lived in GA in 1996 and saw the pathetic Bob Dole campaign up front and in person. And he still beat Bill Clinton in GA. Not by a lot, but his campaign was so awful the only highlight was when he resigned from the Senate and spoke of his alternatives of “going to the White House, or home to Kansas.” I know, that was 24 years ago, and a lot of population migration and growth has occurred, but I will be shaken and surprised if GA goes for Biden. Likewise, the claims that Beto O’Roarke was going to beat Ted Cruz - not the case, not even that close (+2.6%)
Yeah, Dole’s campaign was DULL, and I thought he would’ve been a good president.
Are your numbers from 2016 the final turnout spread D vs R for the entire election, or is that the final 2016 early turnout D vs R?
If those 2016 numbers are the spread for the entirety of votes cast in those counties, then the usual republican Election Day wave will make Trump more than safe.
___________________________________________
2016 numbers are final election results per Politico
2020 data is from TargetSmart modeling of voters who have already voted in those counties.
Is TargetSmart reliable?
I am in Williamson County.
I have not found any enthusiastic support for Biden by anyone other than the NEVERTRUMPERS. Literally... none. Not the party loyalists.. not the left wing activitst... none. They will show up and pull the lever but that’s it.
The ONLY people I see making any kind of noise about the fact they intent to vote a Trump are the neverrump republicans... that’s it..
Meanwhile Trump is flat out killing it on the ground like nothing I have ever seen.
Romney had a very good first debate against Obama and then gave up. You could almost see a hooded Soros telling him from the shadows: “Let the Wookiee win.”
Why does this defeatist language always come from our side?
Republicans are always throwing up their hands and saying "lost cause."
I remember four years ago when many here were calling Pennsylvania "Fool's Gold" and were lamenting the fact that Trump had the audacity to campaign there, wasting precious time and resources.
Democrats never say that. That's why they are campaigning in places like Georgia, Texas and Arizona, where Republicans would never even set foot in California, New York or Illinois (to name just a few).
Will never understand why Republicans insist on being the defeatist party. I thought they would allow Trump to show them how to win.
Trump should easily win re-election on Tuesday and keep at least the Senate (if not the House as well) but will have done so singlehandedly with virtually no help from the Republican party, who just want to cringe in a corner and make nice with their Democrat betters.
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